Kentucky Derby Field 2018: Pinpointing Contenders from All Horses and Jockeys
Churchill Downs has not recently hosted any upset tales at the Kentucky Derby. Saturday's top-heavy field figures to sustain the trend of a main contender prevailing.
Starting with Orb's triumph in 2013, favorites have reigned supreme at the Run for the Roses. Expected results aren't the norm, as no favorite triumphed from 1980 to 2000.
This trend has adjusted bettors' approach to the race. ESPN.com's Chris Fallica told Dan Wolken of USA Today that he's no longer chasing the underdog.
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"In the past, you're looking at the 15-1 shot to win and people are making huge scores (putting the long shot) on top of the favorite," Fallica said. "Now it's the other way around."
Unfortunately for anyone seeking a clear winner, the 144th Kentucky Derby preserves some parity by featuring several contenders rather than one runaway favorite. Let's look at the field and betting lines, courtesy of OddsShark as of Friday night, before highlighting three top horses.
Kentucky Derby Field
1. Firenze Fire: 66-1 (Jockey: Paco Lopez)
2. Free Drop Billy: 35-1 (Jockey: Robby Albarado)
3. Promises Fulfilled: 40-1 (Jockey: Corey Lanerie)
4. Flameaway: 50-1 (Jockey: Jose Lezcano)
5. Audible: 13-2 (Jockey: Javier Castellano)
6. Good Magic: 8-1 (Jockey: Jose Ortiz)
7. Justify: 7-2 (Jockey: Mike Smith)
8. Lone Sailor: 50-1 (Jockey: James Graham)
9. Hofburg: 15-1 (Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.)
10. My Boy Jack: 18-1 (Jockey: Kent Desormeaux)
11. Bolt d'Oro: 17-2 (Jockey: Victor Espinoza)
12. Enticed: 25-1 (Jockey: Junior Alvarado)
13. Bravazo: 60-1 (Jockey: Luis Contreras)
14. Mendelssohn: 7-2 (Jockey: Ryan Moore)
15. Instilled Regard: 60-1 (Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke)
16. Magnum Moon: 15-2 (Jockey: Luis Saez)
17. Solomini: 22-1 (Jockey: Flavien Prat)
18. Vino Rosso: 12-1 (Jockey: John Velazquez)
19. Noble Indy: 30-1 (Jockey: Florent Geroux)
20. Combatant: 66-1 (Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.)
Top Contenders
Justify
If the top favorite again triumphs, Justify will give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Kentucky Derby crown.
Despite not competing as a two-year-old, Scat Daddy's speedy son has garnered marquee billing by winning all three races (all at California's Santa Anita Park) this year. The undefeated horse is saddled by Mike Smith, who is seeking his first Derby victory since riding Giacomo in 2005. He has since notched 10 top-three finishes at Triple Crown events, including firsts at the 2010 and 2013 Belmont Stakes.
Baffert touted the 52-year-old jockey's experience to Wolken:
"A lot of these riders, they get nervous. There's a lot of pressure on them, but Mike's been there so many times, Mike finds ways to get things done. He's given us some really exciting wins. The thing about Mike, he knows that I'm not worried about him, so there's not that extra pressure. He knows he's not going to get fired."
A clean opening could send Justify sprinting ahead of the pack, but endurance concerns could cause bettors to shy away from the chalk pick. After an impeccable performance in April's 1 ⅛-mile Santa Anita Derby, he'll need to maintain his burst over Churchill Downs' 1 ⅛-mile track.
Justify must also break the Apollo Curse and become the first Derby winner since 1882 to not start as a two-year-old. Altered training styles and philosophies, however, may make that stat obsolete.
Audible
According to Equibase, Javier Castellano has won 71 races this year and 4,887 in his career. His $301,458,311 career earnings place third among all jockeys behind John R. Velazquez—who will ride Vino Rosso on Saturday—and Smith.
The reigning Preakness Stakes champion has yet to win The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports.
He'll get another chance on Saturday when saddling Audible, who has won his last four races. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who will enter four horses on Saturday, praised his top contender to Newsday's Ed McNamara.
"What I really like about his last two races is he showed diversity in his running style," Pletcher said. "I think that's what you need in a race like this: a horse that can adapt to different scenarios. He also really finished and showed a turn of foot, which is not always easy to do in dirt races."
He demonstrated that acceleration by coming from behind to seize the 1 ⅛-mile Florida Derby on March 31. As noted by Steve Edelson of the Asbury Park Press, Audible tallied a 99 Beyer speed score at the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes.
Into Mischief's offspring also drew a lucky post position. Ten winners—including 2017 champion Always Dreaming—have emerged from the No. 5 gate since introducing starting gates in 1930. Audible at least presents a great chance for Castellano to net his first top-three Derby finish.
Bolt d'Oro
In an era of favorites dominating, Bolt d'Oro makes a responsible against-the-grain choice.
While hardly an underdog, his 9-1 odds ties Odd Magic as the fifth-most likely to finish first. His record isn't spotless like Justift, but he has won four of six starts with no finish lower than third. The WinStar Farm-bred colt placed second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby's two-horse finish.
The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg detailed his reasons for liking Bolt d'Oro as "a key horse for your exotics."
"His sire, Medaglia d'Oro, produced seven Grade 1 winners in 2017 and his broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992. As for speed, he had a top Beyer Speed Figure of 103, well above the 95 threshold seen in almost every other Derby winner since the figure debuted, and finished the last three-eights of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, another key indicator of Derby success."
NYRA.com's Andy Serling also took positives away from last month's runner-up outcome:
Bolt d'Oro will receive the guidance of jockey Victor Espinoza, who led American Pharoah and California Chrome to Derby glory in 2014 and 2015, respectively. A triumph would not constitute a major upset, but he'd still go down as the race's least-favored champion in six years.
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