X

Kentucky Derby 2018: Latest Vegas Odds and Predictions After Post Positions Draw

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistMay 2, 2018

Kentucky Derby hopeful Justify gets a bath after a morning workout at Churchill Downs Tuesday, May 1, 2018, in Louisville, Ky. The 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 5. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

There's been plenty of talk about Kentucky Derby favorite Justify since Tuesday's post position draw.

The three-year-old horse with little competitive experience is the center of attention, but there are a few others with better racing pedigree that will be in the hunt Saturday as well.

In addition to Justify, four other horses have odds of better than 10-1 entering Wednesday, which makes things interesting when it comes to making wagers on the race.

Of course, the odds are expected to fluctuate throughout the week, but as of right now, there are plenty of horses capable of going down as solid wagers before the gates open at Churchill Downs Saturday afternoon.

           

Latest Odds

Eric Crawford @ericcrawford

Justify, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Audible are the four favorites for the #KyDerby, and all drew decent posts. Full post positions and odds . . . https://t.co/9C4tEzl2C5

Video Play Button
Videos you might like

       

Predictions

Justify's Inexperience Shows

Something has to give when it comes to Justify. 

The last five favorites have won the Kentucky Derby, but no horse since 1882 has been victorious after not racing as a two-year-old.

At 3-1, Justify is the horse creating all the buzz at Churchill Downs, but bettors could be turned away from the Bob Baffert-trained colt because of his inexperience.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

At some point, the race inexperience of Justify is going to show, whether it be working through the pack at the start or judging a corner differently than others in the field.

Justify is still going to be in contention for most of the race, but how he and jockey Mike Smith respond to any small errors throughout the race will be key.

With many favorites in the field, Justify has to hope a small mistake isn't taken advantage of by other more experienced horses.

As long as Justify runs a near-perfect race, he is going to be in the mix down the final stretch.

        

Don't Count Out the Underdogs

With most of the focus on the five horses favored by the oddsmakers, a few will slip under the radar.

Identifying one or two underdogs to put money on if you're looking to take winnings from a trifecta wager is key.

One of the horses worth keeping an eye on is Good Magic, who is 12-1. The horse starting to the left of Justify Saturday from the No. 6 post won the Breeders Cup juvenile in November before taking the Blue Grass Stakes in April.

The one concern with Good Magic is he placed third at the Fountain of Youth Stakes after being the heavy favorite to capture the race.

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

At 20-1, Hofburg, who placed second in the Florida Derby, could make some noise, but he only has three starts to his name.

Two of the four horses in the field trained by Todd Pletcher could sneak into the top three as well, with Vino Rosso at 12-1 and Noble Indy at 30-1, but both of them start in outside posts.

If you're looking for an experienced horse with value, Enticed could be the way to go at 30-1.

Enticed most recently finished second behind Vino Rosso at the Wood Memorial, and a month before he won the Gotham Stakes.

The horse ridden by Junior Alvarado has strong bloodlines as well, as Enticed's father is Medaglia d'Oro, who took second at the Belmont Stakes and fourth at the Kentucky Derby in 2002.

Bolt d'Oro, who is 8-1, is the other offspring of Medaglia d'Oro to enter Saturday's field.

        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Kentuckyderby.com.

slash iconYour sports. Delivered.

Enjoy our content? Join our newsletter to get the latest in sports news delivered straight to your inbox!