
Kentucky Derby Picks 2018: Predictions for Projected Lineup at Churchill Downs
On Saturday, Churchill Downs will play host to the Kentucky Derby for the 144th time as a lineup of 20 horses battle it out to win the Run for the Roses and perhaps set the stage for further Triple Crown glory.
Known to many as "the most exciting two minutes in sports," the Derby is the pinnacle of the horse racing calendar in the United States.
The favourites, the dark horses and the outsiders have all been determined, and there's plenty of money to be won or lost depending on how the race shakes out.
Here is the lineup, complete with their predicted finish:
- Justify (2nd)
- Magnum Moon (1st)
- Audible (5th)
- Good Magic (7th)
- Bolt d'Oro (3rd)
- Mendelssohn (4th)
- Enticed (9th)
- My Boy Jack (6th)
- Vino Rosso (8th)
- Noble Indy (outside top 10)
- Solomini (outside top 10)
- Hofburg (outside top 10)
- Combatant (10th)
- Free Drop Billy (outside top 10)
- Bravazo (outside top 10)
- Flameaway (outside top 10)
- Lone Sailor (outside top 10)
- Promises Fulfilled (outside top 10)
- Firenze Fire (outside top 10)
- Dream Baby Dream (outside top 10)
- Restoring Hope (outside top 10)
- Sporting Chance (outside top 10)
Apollo's Curse to Be Broken
The curse of Apollo hangs heavy over the Run for the Roses this year.
In 1882, Apollo became the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby having not raced as a two-year-old, and he remains the only one to do it until this day.
However, with two major contenders for the race this year—Justify and Magnum Moon—having not raced before turning three, there has been much discussion as to whether the curse will be broken 136 years on:
Magnum Moon made his debut on January 13 and has won all four of his career starts.
Most recently, the colt won the Arkansas Derby by four lengths, per sports anchor Hayden Balgavy:
Horse racing experts Randy Moss and Marcus Hersh were impressed with his showing:
Magnum Moon has a strong pedigree—he was sired by Malibu Moon, who also sired 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb—and his trainer Todd Pletcher has won the race twice, in 2010 and 2017, so it's easy to see why he is one of the top candidates.
As for Justify, he has only raced three times but, like Magnum Moon, has won on every occasion.
Brimming with raw talent, Justify won the Santa Anita Derby three lengths ahead of fellow Kentucky competitor Bolt d'Oro on April 7.
The horse's pace and power has been evident in preparation for the showpiece at Churchill Downs, per Blood Horse's Jeremy Balan:
According to Balan, that six-furlong run was timed at one minute and 13 seconds flat, and trainer Bob Baffert was not surprised: "He did his thing. He's a superior racehorse. He does things easy."
Like Magnum Moon, Justify benefits from a trainer well-versed in Derby success. Baffert has trained four winners in the Run for the Roses, most recently American Pharoah in 2015.
The pair represent the best chance of breaking Apollo's curse for some time. Either one of them can do it, and given they both stand an excellent chance of finishing on the podium, the remarkable run could easily come to an end.


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