Kentucky Derby 2018: Early Odds and Predictions for Entire Entry Lineup
Saturday at Churchill Downs will see the winner of the 144th edition of the Kentucky Derby crowned.
The most exciting two minutes in sport rarely disappoints, as the dash to the line under the twin spires is so often dramatically contested. And once again, there's a field packed with quality.
The early favourite for the win is Bob Baffert's Justify; the trainer last won this event in 2015, when American Pharoah won the first leg of a historic Triple Crown.
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For those involved with the winning horse on Saturday, dreams of repeating that feat will resonate. Here are the odds for the contenders in the 2018 Run for the Roses and a closer look at what to expect from one of the most gripping days on the racing calendar.
Latest Odds
Justify +300
Mendelssohn +400
Audible +650
Magnum Moon +800
Bolt d'Oro +900
Good Magic +1100
Vino Rosso +1600
Hofburg +1800
Noble Indy +2000
Solomini +2200
My Boy Jack +2500
Enticed +2500
Promises Fulfilled +3300
Free Drop Billy +3300
Flameaway +3300
Restoring Hope +4000
Firenze Fire +4000
Lone Sailor +4000
Quip +4000
Combatant +4000
Reride +5000
Snapper Sinclair +5000
Bravazo +5000
Dream Baby Dream +6600
Figures courtesy of OddsShark
Justify Out to Overcome Apollo Curse
Some trends in sport are remarkable, and the Apollo Curse that's been in place since 1882 in the Kentucky Derby represents one of the most peculiar streaks in sport.
If Justify is going to win for Baffert here, he'll have to break it. Not since 1882 has a horse come through to win the Derby without starting a race as a two-year-old in their career—he was called Apollo.
There's a reason why Justify is the favourite among many punters to reign supreme here, though, as he showcased some exceptional form in the buildup. Justify has won on all three of his starts so far and was impressive in beating Bolt d'Oro by three lengths in the Santa Anita Derby in April.
As noted by The Cappers Forum, he appears to be in fine shape as the Kentucky showpiece moves closer into view:
For those who feel as though the Apollo Curse will continue this year, there are plenty of other options in the field to have a wager on. For much of the buildup, Mendelssohn has been jostling with Justify at the top of the betting.
Trained by the brilliant Aidan O'Brien, he recently turned in a performance to make plenty sit up and take note, winning the UAE Derby at Meydan by a huge 18 lengths. Given it was the first time Mendelssohn started on dirt, there's potential for him to show improvemeny at Churchill Downs.
In Ryan Moore, he'll have an experienced jockey on board. Speaking to At The Races, O'Brien outlined what he'll bring to the saddle:
Audible is also worth a look after winning the Florida Derby, as that race has yielded the last two winners—Nyquist in 2016 and Always Dreaming 12 months ago—of the Run for the Roses. Audible is also set to have John Velazquez, who won with Always Dreaming in 2016, in the saddle.
Speaking after a win earlier in season in the Holy Bull Stakes, trainer Todd Pletcher complimented the transition speed of the horse.
"What he has that, over the years, has proven successful is enough tactical speed to put him in position," he said, per Brisnet's Vance Hanson. "What was most impressive in the Holy Bull is how he kicked on after prompting solid fractions. He was able to find another gear."
In addition to Audible, who has the best chance of winning here, Pletcher has three other hopefuls in the field in Noble Indy, Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon. The legendary trainer will be keen for a repeat of last year, when Always Dreaming, from his stable, raced to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: 1. Justify, 2. Audible, 3. Mendelssohn
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