Breaking Down Both UEFA Champions League Semi-Final Ties

The draw for the UEFA Champions League semi-finals have been made, pitting Bayern Munich against Real Madrid and Liverpool against Roma.

It’s a delicious draw; the one so many wanted, promising frenetic action and intriguing narrative potential.

Here, we take a look at the two ties and dissect what we can at this early stage. Which factors will dictate how the game will go, where can be the key battles be found, and which sides look equipped to progress to the final?

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Liverpool vs. Roma

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There are some who maintain the UEFA Champions League draw process is fixed, with the intent of either keeping big sides apart early on, or producing tasty narratives at every turn.

The fact we were given Neymar vs. a Real Madrid side he’s been heavily linked to this season, as reported by Metro, in the round of 16, then a quarter-final draw that could feasibly have produced a Manchester City-Real Madrid-Barcelona-Bayern Munich mix, only added fuel to those respective fires.

Mohamed Salah’s impending return to Rome represents a fresh batch of kindling to induce flames.

Roma’s defenders—or at least Kostas Manolas and Alessandro Florenzi—will be aware of the danger the Egyptian poses, having played two seasons as his team-mate between 2015 and 2017; they should know his movements, and they’ll be acquainted with his searing speed.

The good news for them is that, apart from perhaps Raphael Varane, Manolas might even be the best-equipped centre-back left in the competition to deal with him, boasting remarkable pace of his own.

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That duel will form one of two key battles deciding this tie, with the other located in the middle. Both Liverpool and Roma share the desire to assert themselves—utilising physicality and intensity—in the centre of the park. The former overcame Manchester City by doing so, the latter Barcelona.

Kevin Strootman, Daniele De Rossi and Radja Nainggolan excelled in this week’s famous 3-0 victory at the Stadio Olimpico, utilising grit and aggression to overwhelm a rather static and ageing Barca contingent. Liverpool’s snappier trio will be much harder to gain the edge over, but they’ll try.

How Eusebio Di Francesco sets out his side remains a huge question mark; no one expected the 3-5-2 shape rolled out on Tuesday, with Patrik Schick playing just off Edin Dzeko—the 4-3-3 has been used regularly this campaign. That will concern Jurgen Klopp in preparation for this one: Will the Giallorossi spring another surprise in order to place Liverpool off balance?

Prediction: Liverpool progress

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Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid

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If the last few meetings between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are anything to go by, we’ve been served up a treat by the draw process here. Last year these two giants went to extra-time to settle a quarter-final, and the memory of Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo tearing through Pep Guardiola’s defence on the counter in 2014 is still fresh.

Those past glories will mean nothing to Zinedine Zidane in preparing for this fixture, though—and rightly so—as not only is the Bayern team Jupp Heynckes will present different to previous iterations, it’s arguably the least flawed of the four semi-finalists.

Unlike Madrid themselves, Liverpool or Roma, there’s no obvious, clear area of weakness in Bayern’s XI. Even Sven Ulreich, Manuel Neuer’s stand-in between the posts, has turned a disastrous start to the season into a good campaign.

Well-coached, with a beautifully balanced midfield, a star-studded defence and an elite striker, the only question mark you can attribute to Bayern is that they’re still yet to find any real intensity in this competition.

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Besiktas were not a challenge in the round of 16, with the fact they were reduced to 10 men in the first leg early on essentially ending the contest. They found both legs against Sevilla tough defensively, giving up clear-cut chances a little too frequently. Many will expect this group to turn it on when it matters, but football doesn’t necessarily work like that; there’s no on/off tap.

That’s the first puzzle for Heynckes to solve, with the second being how his defenders handle the directness and rotational movements of Real Madrid’s attack—particularly down the right side.

Joshua Kimmich was caught out in behind several times against Sevilla, but instead of having to chase down Joaquin Correa, Pablo Sarabia and Wissam Ben Yedder, this time it’ll be Marcelo, Cristiano Ronaldo and Isco.

In terms of storylines, this fixture is bursting at the seams with points of intrigue: Heynckes won the Champions League in 1998 with Real Madrid and will now look to knock them out; Toni Kroos began his glorious career with Bayern but will now contest them; and James Rodriguez walks the divide, on loan in Bavaria from Madrid. 

Prediction: Real Madrid progress

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