2018 NFL Draft: Stock Up, Down with Three Weeks Until Draft
You may not have heard, but there's a draft coming up in the National Football League.
We're about three weeks out from the beginning of the 2018 draft on April 26 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The scouting combine is long in the rearview mirror. So are the majority of pro days.
Both had significant impacts on the draft values of the incoming class.
Of course, those workouts aren't the only thing that can boost rookies up (or drop them down) draft boards. After about a month of free agency and a bevy of trades (including one involving a top-three selection), the needs and priorities of many teams have changed.
Maybe a squad was able to fill a hole with a free agent and can look elsewhere in Round 1. Or it traded up in that same round because it didn't feel the player it was targeting would fall far enough.
Maybe both.
Whatever the reason, there are plenty of risers and fallers on boards as the draft draws near.
Stock Up: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
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The $64,000 Question is the same every year: Who is numero uno?
One thing appears to be a pretty safe bet. That player is going to be a quarterback. Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson said as much while speaking to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.
"Obviously, as you guys have already pegged it, we're taking a quarterback," he stated.
The question then becomes which quarterback.
There continues to be scuttlebutt connecting Wyoming's Josh Allen to the Browns. The MMQB's Peter King wrote Sunday that a "friend" of Browns general manager John Dorsey indicated Dorsey was leaning toward Allen.
Also, per Cabot, Dorsey indicated he's open to dealing the No. 1 pick.
"You have to explore all options," he said. "You never know until you know. We have to do that as an organization. To get us better I'll explore every opportunity there is up until it comes time to make that pick."
However, as Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar pointed out, after Darnold shone in the rain at USC's pro day, the general consensus is he's the clear favorite to be the first overall pick.
Ryan Dunleavy of NJ Advance Media echoed the sentiment that Darnold sealed the deal at his pro day. Ditto for scout Benjamin Allbright.
"Relax, Browns fans," Allbright tweeted. "It's Darnold unless they're blown away by a trade offer."
Stock Down: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
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Not that long ago, draftniks were talking up Penn State tailback Saquon Barkley as the potential first overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.
Barkley was fresh off the combine, where he put on quite a show—a dazzling display of strength, speed and agility that had tongues wagging.
As NFL Research pointed out, Barkley posted more bench-press reps in Indy than Joe Thomas. A better 10-yard split than DeSean Jackson. A better 40 time than Devin Hester. And a better vertical jump than Julio Jones.
Other than that, he didn't do much.
And yet, as the calendar turns to April, it appears more likely that Barkley could slip from the top five altogether than go first overall.
It's no knock on the 6'0", 233-pound tailback. Barkley is just as talented now as he was in February. Or in November at Penn State.
It's simply a matter of the way things are lining up in this year's draft.
The Cleveland Browns have all but confirmed that they are taking a quarterback at No. 1. The Giants appear to be leaning toward either following suit or perhaps drafting an edge-rusher to replace Jason Pierre-Paul. The Jets didn't trade three second-rounders to move up and take anyone but a quarterback.
Just like that, we're already at 4. The Browns could take Barkley there. Or trade the pick to the Buffalo Bills, who would then all but certainly take a quarterback.
It's not inconceivable that the Colts—who traded back from No. 3 to No. 6—could still land Barkley even after the deal—with three more picks in the hopper to boot.
Talk about a jackpot.
Stock Up: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, North Carolina State
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It's not all that often that the New York Giants pick this close to the top of the first round. For some time, it looked like the G-Men were headed one of two ways with the second overall pick in 2018—the team would either draft a successor to Eli Manning at quarterback or get Manning some help by selecting Barkley or Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson.
However, that was before the Giants shipped defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—a trade that opened up both a hole on New York's defense and another highly distinct possibility.
That possibility's name is Bradley Chubb.
The 6'4", 269-pound Chubb is the consensus top pass-rusher in this year's class after back-to-back seasons with 10-plus sacks and 20-plus tackles for loss with the Wolfpack. He's generally regarded as similarly talented as Myles Garrett, who went first overall in 2017.
If the Giants pass on Chubb at No. 2, he isn't going to have to wait long. Chubb and Garrett would make a fine pair of bookends for the Browns at No. 4...a fact that Cleveland general manager John Dorsey alluded to, according to Patrick Maks of the team's website.
"They play the game in different levels. Myles is such an athletic, to me, he’s more like Julius Peppers in terms of his movement skills and his length and how he plays," Dorsey said. "Chubb plays the game a little bit differently, but he’s still an unbelievable defensive prospect for this draft."
Chubb and Garrett on the same D-line?
That would work.
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Stock Down: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
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Much like with Saquon Barkley, the perceived mini-slide down draft boards by Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has little—or maybe nothing—to do with the player itself. The 6'0", 204-pounder is widely viewed as a top-five overall prospect in this year's class—a do-it-all defensive back capable of serving every role on the back end from dime linebacker to slot cornerback and both safety spots.
The kid can play.
But Fitzpatrick, just like Barkley, is slipping for one simple reason.
He doesn't throw a football.
At least two of the first three picks in the 2018 NFL draft are going to be quarterbacks. It's entirely possible that three signal-callers in a row will be chosen to open the festivities in Dallas on April 26. More and more mock drafts (including the latest one from Eliot Shorr-Parks at NJ.com) have all of the "Big Four" quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen) coming off the board by pick No. 6.
If those quarterbacks all move up, then players like Fitzpatrick are going to slide more than they should. In the case of Shorr-Parks and Fitzpatrick, it's to No. 7, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their league-worst pass defense of a year ago.
That drop might make for an awkward few minutes in the green room, and for every slot Fitzpatrick falls, it costs the youngster money.
But landing in Tampa would be a massive gift for the Buccaneers.
At least Fitzpatrick wouldn't have to pay state taxes on his rookie earnings.
Stock Up: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
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It's difficult to try to definitively slot any player to an NFL team three-plus weeks out from the draft. When the real thing goes down on the 26th, odds are good that despite all the research and hard work of those in the draft community, it will look little like the hundreds of mocks released over the last few months.
It's the nature of the beast.
However, while pinning down the exact landing spot for Virginia Tech linebacker Tremaine Edmunds may be difficult, we can at least project the general area.
Edmunds is starting his NFL career by the Bay.
In his most recent mock draft at Bleacher Report, NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller projected the 6'5", 253-pound Edmunds will be taken at No. 9 by the San Francisco 49ers.
"Edmunds is a versatile asset on defense," Miller said, "and given Reuben Foster's off-field issues, he would also provide insurance in case the Niners lose last year's first-rounder for an extended time. And should they get on the field together? Watch out."
Edmunds lit up the combine back in February—as a 19-year-old.
If the 49ers pass at No. 9, the Oakland Raiders would probably pounce at 10. Like the 49ers, the Raiders need help at the linebacker spot. With NaVorro Bowman still unsigned, linebacker is Oakland's biggest defensive need.
Stock Down: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
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It wasn't that long ago that Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley was considered the no-doubt top prospect at his position and a potential top-15 pick.
Maybe even top-10.
That was before a miserable performance at the combine in which Ridley finished near the bottom of his position group in a number of drills. As Chase Goodbread reported for NFL.com, the 6'0", 189-pound Ridley still believes he's this year's top receiver prospect.
"I do feel like I'm the best receiver in the draft," Ridley told NFL Network's Kimberly Jones. "I just want to prove it. I don't get into a receiver stance and broad jump before I run a route. Whoever gets me is getting a great player.
"I know I can beat all those scores by a lot, but [in training] I was trying to get ready for my 40, which I was upset about, too. I didn't have a great combine, not like I wanted to. I should've gone in there and just run the 40 and run routes, and done all the other stuff here [at pro day]."
One bad workout doesn't erase everything Ridley did before it. But it did place doubt in some minds—including ESPN's Mel Kiper, who told Garrett Downing of the Ravens' website he thinks a Baltimore team that recently signed veteran receiver Michael Crabtree will pass on Ridley at No. 16.
"I just don't see Ridley anymore as a top 10-15 guy," Kiper said. "Remember, they were talking about No. 8 to Chicago, maybe to Arizona at 15, Baltimore at 16—it wouldn't be a surprise if he went in the middle of the first, but I'm thinking more in that 20-32 range."
Stock Up: D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland
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This isn't a great class at the wide receiver position. There isn't a no-doubt No. 1, especially after the aforementioned Calvin Ridley had a miserable draft season.
However, there are a pack of teams in the teens and 20s (the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams among them) who have a need at the receiver spot.
If one of those teams decides to make a receiver (or two) a first-round selection, the smart money's on Maryland's D.J. Moore to be one of those guys.
While Ridley was struggling in Indianapolis, Moore was turning heads. The 6'0", 210-pound Moore ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash, added a 39.5-inch vertical leap, posted an 11-foot broad jump and put up 15 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press.
Add to that ample tape of Moore's good route-running and change-of-direction skills with the Terps, and you have what looks to be a Round 1 talent.
In fact, per the Dallas Morning News, Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com believes Moore could move all the way up to the Cowboys at No. 19.
"Moore is a first-round prospect," Brugler said, "and he absolutely should be considered by the Cowboys at No. 19. His tape gives off Steve Smith vibes with his power and explosive traits. What are the weaknesses? That he is only 6'0"? I can work with that—get him on my team."
Stock Down: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
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Reading the tea leaves regarding an NFL draft prospect is a subjective exercise. Opinions can vary greatly from draftnik to draftnik, and this is the time of year when NFL teams are known to spread disinformation in the hopes of putting other clubs off the scent of their targets.
Take Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, for example. Jordan Schultz of Yahoo Sports remains convinced that talk of the 2016 Heisman trophy winner's lagging draft stock is just that—talk.
"Lots of talk and confusion around Lamar Jackson," Schultz tweeted. "My understanding however, in regards to his draft stock, is that it continues to trend upward. Hard to imagine him falling him out of the 1st round. He could pretty high as well -- think about ARZ at 15 as a possibility."
It's possible that after whiffing on the big-name free agents and settling for Sam Bradford that the Redbirds might just be desperate enough to reach for Jackson at 15. It may also be Jackson's last best chance at being selected on Day 1.
It hasn't been a great draft season for Jackson. The athletic signal-caller, who doesn't have an agent, decided against running the 40-yard dash at both the combine and Louisville's pro day. As Dan Parr reported for NFL.com, colleague Mike Mayock indicated he's heard from numerous sources that teams are having trouble setting up meetings with Jackson.
Maybe he's just playing hard to get. But it doesn't appear Jackson is doing himself any favors.
Stock Up: James Daniels, OL, Iowa
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Every year we see players work their way into first-round consideration as draft season progresses.
This year, a prime candidate for that is Iowa center James Daniels.
Partly, it's a matter of talent. As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com reported, at least one NFC scout believes the 6'3", 295-pounder could be the best center in his division the moment he gets off the bus.
"The Iowa guys are always going to be quick and proficient, but you have to see them tested against power because they are usually going to be a little smaller, too," the scout said. "This guy has decent size, and I think he's got pretty good functional power. He would come in and challenge for best center in our division right away."
It's also a matter of need, though. High-end offensive linemen rarely hit free agency, and the ones who did in 2018 (Andrew Norwell, Nate Solder) were scooped up quickly.
That leaves teams like the Cincinnati Bengals (at No. 21) looking to the draft to get better in the trenches.
"Daniels is a smooth mover at either center or guard and is an ideal player to kick out linebackers in the run game or keep pace with fast, athletic interior pass-rushers," Miller wrote. "In Cincinnati, he would be an immediate upgrade at either guard spot or center as the Bengals look to retool the line again."
Whether it's the Bengals or one of the handful of teams with a hole up front picking after Cincy, Daniels isn't making it to Day 2.
Stock Down: Arden Key, EDGE, LSU
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Edge-rusher is one of the premium positions in the NFL draft. Plenty of teams picking in the back half of Round 1 need help getting after the quarterback, whether it's the Los Angeles Rams (at No. 23), the Carolina Panthers (at No. 24) or the Tennessee Titans (at No. 25).
With each passing day, it becomes less likely that any of those teams are going to use a Round 1 draft pick on LSU's Arden Key.
Back in 2016, Key set a single-season record at LSU with 12 sacks. But since then, it's been a steady downhill slide. There was a leave of absence from the team, injuries, weight issues and a drop in production.
As one scouting director told Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, that's the worry—that a team will get the out-of-shape malcontent instead of the promising edge-rusher.
"You come back to the old question of what will a player do with more time and more money as a pro? Key's background tells you it could be a big problem for him," the scout said. "Not only that, but he had seven sacks over the last two years where he didn't have to beat the tackle."
For his part, Key will at least have one last chance to make a good impression when LSU holds its pro day on Wednesday.
But short of the pro day to end all pro days, Key is not getting back into Round 1.
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