NCAA Men's Championship 2018: Updated Title Odds Going into Final Four

On the right side of the men's NCAA tournament bracket, you have two No. 1 seeds who were considered title contenders coming in. On the left side, you have something entirely different.

The Final Four is set, and if you view the game between Kansas and Villanova as the real national title game, you're not alone. Villanova and KU are the popular favorites to win the title, and for good reason.

But do not count out Michigan's defense or the awesome play-calling of Loyola of Chicago's Porter Moser. If there was ever a year when a double-digit seed would win the national title, it's probably this one, when a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1.

Let's look at the matchups, reasons to buy and sell every team, and the keys for each to be the one to cut down the nets Monday.

Loyola-Chicago

David Goldman/Associated Press

Title Odds: 10-1

The Road Ahead

Loyola-Chicago goes up against the best defense it has seen all season Saturday. Michigan ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com (subscription required).

Reason to Buy

The Ramblers beat Tennessee, which has a similar statistical profile to Michigan. Their shooting is the main reason to buy. The Ramblers are the hottest team left in that regard. On Saturday against Kansas State, they made 50 percent of their threes and went 18-of-29 inside the arc. Oh, and they have Sister Jean on their side.

Reason to Sell

The lowest seed to ever win the NCAA tournament was Villanova in 1985 as a No. 8. That's three seed lines ahead of Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers are also outmatched from a talent standpoint, especially by the teams in the other semifinal. They've had the fortune of avoiding teams with the likes of talent of Villanova and Kansas up to this point.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

They keep shooting like they did against K-State and continue to play mistake-free basketball on both ends of the floor.

Michigan

Jae Hong/Associated Press

Title Odds: 4-1

The Road Ahead

Michigan's defense has been terrific in the tournament, but it has yet to face a strong offense. The three other teams left all present challenges to the Wolverines with their ability to spread the floor with shooters, and all three are great passing teams.

Reason to Buy

John Beilein's coaching. Beilein is as good as it gets in the NCAA tournament at building a game plan on the fly, and his two-guard offense is one of the most difficult to prep for because it's unique. He also has a three-point-shooting big man in Moritz Wagner who will be difficult for the other teams to match up with.

Also, the three other teams rely a lot on their star point guards, and Michigan has the man who makes life hell for opposing point guards in Zavier Simpson. His defense gives Michigan a shot.

Reason to Sell

Most championship teams usually have a healthy dose of NBA talent on the roster, and there isn't a surefire future NBA player in Beilein's rotation. Wagner will likely get a shot, and a few other guys could get looks as well, but KU and Nova are also extremely well-coached and have better talent.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The defense continues to play terrific and the Wolverines can get close to replicating their shooting performance against Texas A&M. This is not as good a shooting team as Beilein typically has, but it did make 14 of 24 threes against the Aggies in the Sweet 16. Against Florida State in the regional final, the Wolverines shot just 4-of-22 from long range. They cannot shoot that poorly in San Antonio and expect to win.

Kansas

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Title Odds: 3-1

The Road Ahead

The Jayhawks face the team that knocked them out two years ago in the Elite Eight. Villanova went on to capture the championship that KU was favored to win. This time around Villanova is the favorite, but whoever triumphs Saturday will be favored to win the title.

Reason to Buy

Malik Newman. The sophomore transfer from Mississippi State was a role player for much of the season, but he's become a star in March. Newman is averaging 22.7 points and shooting 54.9 percent from beyond the arc in seven postseason games. The Jayhawks were already really good with him as a role player; now their offense is incredibly difficult to stop.

Reason to Sell

This is the worst defensive team Bill Self has had at Kansas, ranking 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. No champ has ranked outside the top 20 in the KenPom era, which dates back to 2002.

Will Cut the Nets Down If...

The Jayhawks are disciplined defensively against Nova and then either Michigan or Loyola-Chicago. All three teams are patient and wait for you to make a mistake. Kansas was locked in on its scouting report against Duke and executed. It will take two more defensive performances like that to win the title. The Jayhawks also need to continue to shoot the ball well from deep. Self has never had a team more reliant on the three-pointer, so Newman and company need to keep burying threes to win.

Villanova

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Title Odds: Even

The Road Ahead

The Wildcats face an opponent that is similar to them. Both Villanova and Kansas have great point guards, spread the floor with shooters and take a lot of threes. Kansas just played a classic against Duke; this game could be similar.

Reason to Buy

KU's defense has been vulnerable to getting beat on backdoors this year, and no one in college hoops is better at getting into the teeth of the defense and then finding cutters than Jalen Brunson. Brunson's ability to post up could also give KU trouble—same for whoever Nova faces in the final if it gets past Kansas.

Reason to Sell

The one thing Villanova lacks that the 2016 title team had is a true rim protector. If KU has an advantage, it's at center. Udoka Azubuike is a giant and will be guarded by 6'9" Omari Spellman. If Spellman gets in foul trouble, Nova doesn't have another player who would be able to deal with the power and strength of Azubuike. That said, Azubuike could have trouble with Spellman, who can shoot the three. Azubuike prefers to stay in the paint defensively.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Jay Wright can come up with another great defensive game plan to slow Kansas. He was able to do that in 2016 when the Wildcats used multiple defenses to flummox the Jayhawks. If they can get by Kansas, it's hard to imagine either team from the other semifinal can beat the Wildcats unless they go ice cold. Even when they go cold, like they did against Texas Tech, they can win in a rock fight.