NCAA Tournament 2018: Prop Bets and Picks Against the Spread for Sweet 16 Games

There's no shortage of things at stake when the NCAA tournament resumes Thursday with Sweet 16 games. Winners over the next two days move to the Elite Eight and are one step closer to an elusive spot in the Final Four.

The opening lines for these matchups, according to OddsShark, indicate most games should be close. But the final score isn't the only thing that might be worth making a wager on. There are also prop bets to consider.

Prop bets are focused on specific aspects of an event, such as the number of points a player could score or how many rebounds a team collects. Many of these can be found via sports books in Las Vegas and other places where betting is legal, but for fun, we've come up with one for each Sweet 16 pairing.

Loyola-Chicago vs. Nevada

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Point Spread: Nevada -2

The Pick: Loyola-Chicago

Nevada's comeback wins over Texas and Cincinnati, by 14 and 22 points, respectively, were phenomenal to watch. But don't forget that means the Wolf Pack (29-7) were down a ton earlier and needed plenty of help from their opponents to allow those rallies to happen.

Loyola-Chicago (30-5) isn't going to be as charitable. The Ramblers play at an even slower pace than Cincinnati and Texas and are much more selective with their shots. They connect 50.6 percent of the time and make it hard to speed them up.

The Prop Bet: Camera Shots of Sister Jean

Unless you only watched your team during the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, you've no doubt heard about Sister Jean, a 98-year-old nun from Loyola-Chicago. She's been prominently featured during the Ramblers' Cinderella run, in the crowd as well as courtside, where the players circle around her and pray. She's the unofficial mascot of the program and epitomizes the uniqueness of Loyola's first Sweet 16 bid since 1985.

The TV crews working the first weekend of the tourney ate her up, and the number of times they'll show her on camera on Thursday night could end up increasing.

Over/under: 9.5

Michigan vs. Texas A&M

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Point Spread: Michigan -3

The Pick: Texas A&M

Michigan's 11-game winning streak is the third-longest in the country, but its wins over Montana and Houston last weekend were decidedly ugly. It took Houston missing three free throws in the final 25 seconds and Jordan Poole's miraculous three at the buzzer for the Wolverines (30-7) stay alive.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M (22-12) enters the Sweet 16 playing its best ball in months after bulldozing defending national champion North Carolina by 21. The Aggies' size inside overwhelmed the Tar Heels, and Michigan is even smaller up front.

The Prop Bet: Total Turnovers

Michigan is one of the most careful teams in the country in terms of holding onto the ball. The Wolverines give it away just 9.2 times per game, and they had only seven turnovers in the second-round win over Houston. The Wolverines force 12.7 turnovers per game.

Texas A&M isn't as careful. Its 16.3 percent turnover rate is on the low end of NCAA teams. The Aggies had 14 against North Carolina, and they don't have a player who averages more than 1.3 steals per game.

In other words, Michigan's offense is bolstered by the ability to get points off turnovers while A&M's has functioned in spite of carelessness. And when it comes to empty possessions, A&M's are more often the result of their own mistakes rather than bad shots.

Over/under: 25.5

Kansas State vs. Kentucky

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Point Spread: Kentucky -5

The Pick: Kentucky

Both Kansas State and Kentucky benefitted from the South Region's bevy of upsets. Neither has played a team seeded better than eighth to this point. And K-State (24-11) looked much better in beating No. 8 Creighton in the first round than it did scrapping with No. 16 UMBC.

Kentucky (26-10) held off No. 12 Davidson and then rolled past a 13th-seeded Buffalo team that was no match for the its perimeter defense. The way it'll down K-State isn't by forcing bad shots. It does that just fine on its own. Rather, Kentucky will win by dominating on the boards.

The Prop Bet: Announcers' Use of 'Wildcats'

Kansas State and Kentucky are among the 10 Division I schools nicknamed the Wildcats, three of which are still alive in the NCAA tourney (Villanova). Their shared sobriquet should handcuff the CBS announcing crew of Brian Anderson, Chris Webber and Lisa Byington.

Broadcasters try to diversify their words and use as many different ways to describe a player, coach or team as possible. That means both Kansas and Kentucky will be referred to as "Wildcats," and that's going to cause a lot of confusion.

Over/under: 13.5

Florida State vs. Gonzaga

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Point Spread: Gonzaga -6.5

The Pick: Gonzaga

Florida State (22-11) rallied from 12 down to upset No. 1 Xavier in the second round and benefitted from arguably the worst performance of the season from Musketeers star Trevon Bluiett. Had Bluiett not been so absent, the Seminoles probably wouldn't still be playing.

Gonzaga (32-4) doesn't have that one guy who has to come through for it to win, not with five players averaging between 11.5 and 13.6 points per game. That includes sophomore forward Rui Hachimura, who had 25 points off the bench to go with the 28 from freshman guard Zach Norvell Jr. in the second-round win over Ohio State.

The Prop Bet: Total Bench Points

With no dominant offensive players on either team, scoring balance will play a big role in the outcome. Florida State loves to go deep into his reserves and play 10 or more guys on a regular basis. Those backups have tallied 88 of the Seminoles' 142 points in the NCAA tournament.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few isn't as generous with his bench minutes, but Hachimura has scored 20 or more as a non-starter five times this season, and the Bulldogs have had 37 instances where a bench guy has contributed double figures. That tally is 39 for FSU.

Over/under: 59.5

Clemson vs. Kansas

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Point Spread: Kansas -4

The Pick: Kansas

Clemson (25-9) has been quite impressive in making its first Sweet 16 since 1997 by beating New Mexico State and Auburn by a combined 42 points (the latter by 31). Even more notable is that it's coming from a team that doesn't have much NCAA tournament experience.

Kansas (29-7) is loaded with practical March Madness knowledge, having reached the Elite Eight the previous two seasons. Seniors Devonte' Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and junior Lagerald Vick have appeared in 31 combined NCAA tournament games in their careers.

The Prop Bet: Devonte' Graham's Minutes

Graham averages 37.6 minutes per game, which ranks 13th in the country. But since mid-January, he's rarely left the court. He has logged all 40 minutes in 13 of the last 19 games.

Graham played at least 38 minutes in all but one game during that span. He got one minute of rest in each each of the Jayhawks' NCAA tournament games. Any breaks he gets against Clemson, outside of halftime and TV timeouts, figure to be minimal.

Over/under: 39.5

Villanova vs. West Virginia

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Point Spread: Villanova -4.5

The Pick: Villanova

Villanova (32-4) has been nearly flawless in its first two NCAA games, but West Virginia (26-10) has been almost as perfect. The teams have won by an average of 22.3 points, and each has been playing well since late in the regular season, collectively winning 16 of their last 20 with each loss to a tourney qualifier.

So how does Villanova get the edge? With precise passing that ensures the right guy is taking the best shot and thus minimizing West Virginia's ability to get steals. The Wildcats turn the ball over 10.4 times per game and have only had it stolen 168 times in 36 contests, while they assist on more than 54 percent of their made baskets. A good chunk of those come from three-point range, where the Mountaineers are not good at defending.

The Prop Bet: Three-Point Attempts

Villanova and West Virginia have combined to attempt 1,926 three-pointers this season, accounting for 42.7 percent of their shots. They have nine total players with at least 50 made threes and five with 68 or more.

The long balls, they will be flying. But how many? Will Villanova jack up 41 threes like it did in the second round against Alabama (making 17) or take only 25, its fewest in the past eight games, as was the case in the overtime win against Providence in the Big East final? And will West Virginia be forced to take more perimeter shots than normal because its pressure defense isn't forcing transition opportunities, or will the Mountaineers pick and choose their spots to hit a three?

Over/under: 53.5

Duke vs. Syracuse

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Point Spread: Duke -11.5

The Pick: Duke

Syracuse (23-13) is the latest team to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16, and in doing so, it once again showed its zone defense is the great neutralizer. The Orange held Duke (28-7) to a season-low 60 points when they met in Durham on Feb. 24, but they also lost by 16 because the Blue Devils played zone themselves and held Syracuse to 31.5 percent shooting.

The greater emphasis on defense has pushed Duke to win 9 of its last 11 with no opponent shooting better than 44.8 percent. And its group superb athletes have shown they can deal with a zone, eliminating Syracuse's best asset.

The Prop Bet: Duke Offensive Rebounds

Syracuse somehow beat Michigan State in the second round despite allowing 26 offensive rebounds, the most by a losing team in a regulation game since December 2016. It has given up 10 or more offensive boards 11 times this season and is 4-7 in those games.

Pulling down its own misses is among Duke's many strengths. The Blue Devils average 13.4 per game and have gone 15-1 when grabbing at least 13 offensive boards.

Over/under: 16.5

Purdue vs. Texas Tech

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Point Spread: Purdue -1.5

The Pick: Texas Tech

Purdue (30-6) avoided the pitfalls of many other high seeds, despite playing without 7'2" senior Isaac Haas, who broke his elbow. Although Haas shoots 61.7 percent and helps draw the defense away from Purdue's perimeter shooters, the Boilermakers still managed to hit 11 threes against Butler.

Texas Tech (26-9) likely wouldn't have fallen for that trap had Haas been able to play, as it holds opponents to 32.7 percent shooting from outside and 40.3 percent overall. And the Red Raiders have a healthy Keenan Evans, who will be the best player in the game.

The Prop Bet: Free-Throw Attempts

Purdue and Texas Tech are both among the top 100 teams in the country in free-throw rate, which is the frequency that a team gets to the foul line in comparison to the number of field goals it attempts. Each takes more than 0.36 free throws per field-goal attempt.

Purdue games have averaged 34.9 free-throw attempts, and Texas Tech games have averaged 43.1. Only 29 free throws were taken in Tech's 69-66 win over Florida in the second round, but the Red Raiders and Stephen F. Austin combined for 52 in the first round.

Over/under: 41.5

Odds are courtesy of OddsShark.com. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.