2018 NFL Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Top Prospects' Stock Watch

The New York Jets made their NFL draft intentions clear as they moved up to the No. 3 pick in a trade with the Indianapolis Colts. With two quarterbacks on the roster on one-year deals (Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater), Gang Green is likely looking for a long-term signal-caller.

The move has big ramifications on the entire draft, and we'll tackle those below while also tracking some top prospects' stocks as these deals go down. You can also find a new mock here.

2018 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Browns: USC QB Sam Darnold

2. Buffalo Bills (proposed trade with New York Giants): Wyoming QB Josh Allen 

3. New York Jets: UCLA QB Josh Rosen

4. Cleveland Browns: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley

5. Denver Broncos: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield

6. Indianapolis Colts: North Carolina State DE Bradley Chubb

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick

8. Chicago Bears: Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson

9. San Francisco 49ers: Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds

10. Oakland Raiders: Georgia LB Roquan Smith

11. Miami Dolphins: Florida State S Derwin James

12. New York Giants (proposed trade with Buffalo Bills): Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey

13. Washington Redskins: Washington DT Vita Vea

14. Green Bay Packers: Ohio State CB Denzel Ward

15. Arizona Cardinals: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson

16. Baltimore Ravens: Alabama WR Calvin Ridley

17. Los Angeles Chargers: Alabama DT Da'Ron Payne

18. Seattle Seahawks: Texas OT Connor Williams

19. Dallas Cowboys: SMU WR Courtland Sutton

20. Detroit Lions: UTSA EDGE Marcus Davenport

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Alabama LB Rashaan Evans

22. New York Giants (proposed trade with Buffalo Bills): Ohio State OG/C Billy Price

23. Los Angeles Rams: Boston College EDGE Harold Landry

24. Carolina Panthers: Alabama S Ronnie Harrison

25. Tennessee Titans: Michigan DT Maurice Hurst

26. Atlanta Falcons: Florida DT Taven Bryan

27. New Orleans Saints: Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Boise State LB Leighton Vander Esch

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Penn State TE Mike Gesicki

30. Minnesota Vikings: Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn

31. New England Patriots: UCF CB Mike Hughes

32. Philadelphia Eagles: LSU RB Derrius Guice

Draft Stock Up: Top Five Quarterbacks

Josh Norris of Rotoworld and NBC Sports made the situation at the top of the NFL draft very clear:

With the Jets now possessing a top-three pick, one could argue that the top five teams in the NFL draft now have long-term needs at the position. There just so happen to be five quarterbacks that stand out among the rest in this year's draft (Sam Darnold of USC, Josh Rosen of UCLA, Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma, Josh Allen of Wyoming and Lamar Jackson of Louisville).

While Jackson is considered No. 5 among that group by most (e.g., Mike Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network), some others believe that he may in fact be the best prospect (Chris Simms of Bleacher Report being one). If there is an early run on quarterbacks, Jackson could still go in the top half of the draft to a team looking for one (e.g., the Arizona Cardinals).

Before the deal, it was conceivable to see the Browns taking Penn State running back Saquon Barkley at No. 1 (considered by many―including Matt Miller of Bleacher Report―to be the top player in this year's class) before selecting a quarterback at No. 4. But that's likely off the board now with the Jets at No. 3 and the Giants at No. 2, who can take a signal-caller or trade down to a team looking for one (e.g., the Buffalo Bills).

Simply put, if given the option between taking their top-rated quarterback in the draft at No. 1 versus perhaps their third-rated quarterback should they take Barkley No. 1, the Browns have to go with the former choice. Furthermore, Barkley could very well be there at No. 4 anyway, as Adam Schefter of ESPN noted that we could be seeing an early run on quarterbacks:

Ultimately, the 2018 quarterback draft class has to be very happy with the Jets' move, especially considering that another deal may be on the horizon (before the Jets trade, Charles Robinson of Yahoo reported that the Bills' goal is to move into the top five).

Draft Stock Down: Top Non-Quarterbacks

A note that the "stock down" discussed here is in regard to estimated placement in the draft as opposed to what these players have done on individual levels.

The top echelon of non-quarterbacks (Barkley, North Carolina defensive end Bradley Chubb, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick) haven't done anything to drop their individual stocks down. If anything, they've all improved it with their offseason performances thus far.

However, if there is a quarterback run at the top of the draft, then the best non-quarterback prospects are looking at being selected from picks four through eight or so.

For example, when the Colts had the No. 3 pick, it was conceivable that they could take Chubb at that spot, as he would help fill Indianapolis' pass-rushing need. However, the Colts could actually find Chubb on the board at No. 6 now if we see four quarterbacks and Barkley go in the top five.

The problem for these players is that they'd be receiving less money off the bat. Jason Fitzgerald of Sporting News outlined the difference between being picked inside and outside the top five prior to the 2017 NFL draft:

"The difference between the fifth and sixth pick will be $3.1 million. The fall-off continues for picks seven and eight with a loss of $2.5 million for each drop. While dropping from No. 1 to No. 4 would cost a player $3.25 million, the drop from No. 5 to No. 8 would cost the player a whopping $8.1 million. The drop from No. 8 to No. 9 is slightly more than $100,000, so there is virtually no difference between those picks."

Back to the Chubb example, if he falls from a hypothetical No. 3 spot to No. 6, that could cost him millions of dollars. Matt Schoch of SEC Country laid out the 2017 NFL draft rookie wage scale last year, and the difference between No. 3 and No. 6 then was $5.8 million on the contract and $4.3 million on the signing bonus. Granted, all first-round picks become instant millionaires off the bat, but that's still a huge chunk of change.

Therefore, these trades not only have a big effect on who goes where, but it also has a negative impact on a few rookies' starting salaries and signing bonuses.