
2018 NFL Free Agency: Biggest Questions That Remain After Early Action
Courtesy of the legal tampering window, NFL fans went into the new league year Wednesday afternoon knowing what many teams and top players had in store.
We knew the market's top wide receiver, Allen Robinson, was going to the Chicago Bears to help Mitchell Trubisky, according to ESPN's Josina Anderson. We knew Kirk Cousins was joining the Minnesota Vikings on a fully guaranteed deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. We even knew one of the market's top offensive linemen, Andrew Norwell, was going to join the Jacksonville Jaguars, per Schefter.
Those are just a few of the names on the move.
Despite this flurry of early free-agent activity, some of the market's top names haven't found homes. Many aren't generating the amount of interest they anticipated. We're still awaiting word on a major franchise-tag decision, and the leaguewide reshuffling under center leaves uncertainty about April's draft.
Below, let's take a look at some of the biggest questions remaining after a wild few days.
What's Next for Le'Veon Bell?
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The Pittsburgh Steelers and star running back Le'Veon Bell are once again locked into a staring contest. Early results in free agency might not be helping matters.
Pittsburgh used its franchise tag on Bell for the second consecutive time this offseason, yet we don't know where the 26-year-old back stands on his demands or when he'll report to the team. Further complicating that outlook is Dion Lewis, who agreed to a four-year deal with the Tennessee Titans that makes him a top-10-paid running back, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Lewis is worth that kind of money for a Titans team looking to spell Derrick Henry with a versatile talent. But he finished with only 896 rushing yards and six scores last season to go with another 214 yards and three touchdowns through the air. He isn't a bell cow, in other words.
The same can't be said for Bell. He's had at least 244 carries in four of his five seasons, including last year's career-high 321. He's rushed for 35 touchdowns over five years, has 1,200-yard seasons in three of his last four years and has received 66 or more targets four times, including two triple-digit campaigns.
According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com, Bell has adjusted his demands and now wants an annual average of $14.5 million—the cost of his franchise tag this year.
"I'm not going to settle for anything," Bell said, according to Fowler. "I know what I do and what I bring to the table. I'm not going out here getting the ball 400 times if I'm not getting what I feel I'm valued at."
With Lewis and other running backs setting the market, it remains unclear whether Bell will adjust his demands again and when he'll end up reporting to the Steelers.
What About the Rest of the RBs?
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Running back might be the most unpredictable position in the NFL.
A few years ago, the committee approach seemed to slam the position's value. The return of the bell cow thanks to young ball-carriers such as Todd Gurley, Jordan Howard and Leonard Fournette have the position riding high again.
But the influx of those new talents has made a huge impact on the open market.
Outside of Lewis' aforementioned deal, running backs aren't rolling in the dough. Carlos Hyde agreed to a three-year, prove-it deal with the Cleveland Browns, according to Rapoport. Former Browns back Isaiah Crowell followed suit, coming to terms on a three-year deal with the New York Jets, according to Schefter.
Think about the rest of the names still searching for homes. Darren Sproles and Danny Woodhead are quality versatile backs. DeMarco Murray, 30, is effective when healthy. Adrian Peterson, 32, is a big name. Jeremy Hill, 25, is a great between-the-tackles runner.
The list goes on, yet the outlook seems clear. Some of these guys may have to wait on a new team and deal until after the NFL draft in April, where another influx of talent will further oversaturate the position.
Where Does Huge WR Market Leave Terrelle Pryor's Redemption Story?
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Allen Robinson wasn't the only receiver to cash in during the early portion of free agency.
Sammy Watkins agreed to a three-year, $48 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, according to Rapoport. The mostly unproven Paul Richardson got a five-year, $40 million pact from the Washington Redskins as they search for a DeSean Jackson replacement, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. The Jaguars re-signed Marqise Lee to a four-year contract worth up to $38 million, according to Rapoport.
We could keep going, too. Albert Wilson somehow got a three-year, $24 million deal from the Miami Dolphins, per Rapoport. Ryan Grant's four-year, $29 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens (via Rapoport) was even more surprising.
As money dries up, that could lead to tough sledding for the rest of the market, most notably Terrelle Pryor.
The 28-year-old former supplemental pick had a 1,000-yard season with Cleveland in 2016, but he busted hard on a one-year, prove-it deal in Washington. He's an amazing redemption story, as Bleacher Report's Tyler Dunne chronicled, but he may be in for a rude awakening during free agency.
The same holds true for 25-year-old Jordan Matthews or notable veterans such as Mike Wallace, Eric Decker and Jordy Nelson, not to mention gambles like Tavon Austin.
In a way, the huge money already thrown at receivers speaks to the weak incoming draft class. A number of early-round wideouts have underwhelmed in recent years, as they're thrown into tough positions trying to revive inept offenses while also adapting to pro speed and demands.
Will the wealth trickle down to guys like Pryor, or will the remaining free-agent wideouts have to fight for table scraps?
When Will the Refreshingly Agressive Packers Slow Down?
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Look at these Green Bay Packers go.
Sure, the team parted ways with a slowing Nelson to free up cap space. Considering how intertwined the veteran wideout is with modern Packers history, that move came as a shock to some.
But otherwise, new general manager Brian Gutekunst is on a roll.
These aren't the same old Packers who tended to tiptoe around the free-agent waters. Rather, these Packers inked the market's top tight end, Jimmy Graham, to a three-year deal, according to Schefter. They then turned around and stole defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson on a one-year deal, according to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky.
In other words, Aaron Rodgers returns to an offense without an aging receiver, but with a reliable tight end who caught 10 touchdowns a season ago. His defense adds a tackle who has 20 sacks over the past three seasons and could excel now that he's back with former New York Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine.
When do the Packers stop? On Tuesday, Gutekunst made it clear that cornerback was a top priority, according to Zach Kruse of Packers Wire. And according to ESPN's Josina Anderson, they were one of the teams expressing interest in Richard Sherman.
With plenty of defensive back depth still on the market, we likely haven't heard the last from the Packers.
What Does the Future Hold for Nick Foles?
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The open market didn't hesitate to gobble up quarterbacks.
Cousins got his Vikings deal. Drew Brees re-upped with the New Orleans Saints, as expected, per Rapoport and Jane Slater. Case Keenum went to the Denver Broncos, according to Schefter. The Arizona Cardinals landed Sam Bradford, Schefter reported. The New York Jets added Teddy Bridgewater, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, after re-signing Josh McCown, per Garafolo.
The rest of the quarterback market lacks sizzle. AJ McCarron's stock came crashing back to earth before he signed a two-year deal with the Bills, as the team announced Wednesday evening. The remaining notables are Blaine Gabbert, Geno Smith and maybe another non-retirement tour for Jay Cutler.
Then there's Nick Foles. You know, the guy who stepped in for MVP contender Carson Wentz and tossed three scores in a 38-7 NFC title game win over the Vikings. He then threw three more in the Philadelphia Eagles' 41-33 Super Bowl LII triumph over the New England Patriots.
Foles may have had an anomaly of a year in a great Philadelphia system. But the Denver-Keenum marriage shows teams are willing to cough up money if they think their own coaching staff can replicate career years from journeymen signal-callers.
To part ways with Foles, the Eagles reportedly want more than the first- and fourth-round picks they received from Minnesota for Bradford in 2016, according to Mortensen. That may diminish trade interest in him, especially with an impressive rookie class inbound. But then again, wilder things have happened—like Foles hoisting a Lombardi Trophy.
Buffalo still has a pair of first-round picks and a need at quarterback even after signing McCarron, while the Eagles could alter their asking price as free agency progresses. It's something to watch as more signal-callers find new homes.
QB Contracts After Kirk Cousins?
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Cousins deserves his own section because of his unprecedented contract.
The two-time franchise-tag recipient received a fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal that boasts the highest average annual value of any contract in NFL history, according to ESPN Stats & Info. It's a big step for NFL players who have to watch NBA and MLB stars make more guaranteed cash at less physical risk.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin praised the development on Twitter: "Kirk Cousins is a hero for all the young players that will follow after him. Now we need more players to bet on themselves until fully guaranteed contracts are the norm and not the exception."
Elite players rarely settle for three-year deals, although the upcoming expiration of the NFL's collective bargaining agreement following the 2020 season makes such contracts more attractive this offseason.
Similar to Ndamukong Suh's former contract with the Miami Dolphins, which was effectively around $60 million over three years, Cousins' deal could reshape the quarterback landscape.
It puts teams like Green Bay under the spotlight, as Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reported Aaron Rodgers was waiting until Cousins inked his new contract before settling on an extension. It could influence extension negotiations between Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons over the coming months, too.
Where Are the New England Patriots?
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Bill Belichick and the Patriots rarely stand still during the offseason.
A year ago, New England traded for Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen, Marquis Flowers and Kony Ealy. The Pats also made a big free-agent splash by signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore, not to mention running back Rex Burkhead.
This year? They signed a special teams player in Brandon King, per ESPN.com's Field Yates; traded for defensive tackle Danny Shelton, per Yates and Schefter; and re-signed safety Nate Ebner, according to Schefter. The Pats also brought Burkhead back at the start of the new league year Wednesday, according to Jim McBride of the Boston Globe.
In the meantime, left tackle Nate Solder departed for the New York Giants in free agency, according to Rapoport. New England also lost Lewis to the Titans, which gives Tom Brady one fewer weapon on offense. Star tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to flirt with retirement. And elite cornerback Malcolm Butler also agreed to sign with the Titans, Rapoport reported.
We've learned to never count out Belichick and the Patriots, but the list of offseason negatives significantly outweighs the positives. The Patriots only have about $15.5 million in cap space, per Spotrac, but it's still odd to see things mostly quiet out of Foxborough.
How Does QB Action Impact Draft's Top 10?
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One can't address the implications of free agency without looking toward the draft.
That feels more amplified than ever this year.
The early run on quarterbacks is the main culprit. For instance, the Jets' decision to sign McCown and Bridgewater throws into question what they might do with the No. 6 pick. Ditto for Denver's No. 5 pick after the Broncos signed Keenum.
It's also worth watching teams that have struck out on quarterbacks to date. At No. 11, the Miami Dolphins could want to move up. The Cleveland Browns, who own the first and fourth picks, still might want to move around while gaining additional assets.
And who can forget the Bills? While they signed McCarron, they still need a long-term answer at quarterback. Buffalo already made one forward-looking move by sending offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and the No. 21 pick to the Cincinnati Bengals for the No. 12 overall pick, per Anderson.
A source told Robinson the Bills "will explore trade scenarios to move into the top five picks" in the coming days to leapfrog the Jets.
With plenty of quarterbacks still on the open market, the rest of free agency will continue to reshape draft boards between now and April.
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