NCAA Tournament 2018 Bubble Watch: What to Watch for Friday

Thursday of championship week is always an exciting day for college basketball fans, and this year's iteration was no exception.

More than a few bubbles burst as Baylor, Boise State, Louisville, LSU, Marquette, Middle Tennessee, Missouri, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Texas all lost.

Some of those teams will still end up in the NCAA tournament, but an early conference tourney exit will have them sweating it out until Sunday.

That mass exodus leaves fewer bubble teams in action Friday, but there are still a handful of games with significant tournament implications.

Ahead is a closer look at the six contests that make up the day's bubble watch.

And for up-to-the-minute projections, check out B/R's live-updating bracket.   

Alabama vs. Auburn

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Collin Sexton

Time: 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It's not quite the Iron Bowl, but it's still significant.

Alabama has already beaten Auburn—a projected No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament—once this season, scoring a 76-71 victory at home Jan. 17.

However, more recently, the Tigers blew them out 90-71 at Auburn on Feb. 21.

The Crimson Tide might have already punched their ticket with a thrilling 71-70 victory over Texas A&M on Thursday, as freshman standout Collin Sexton scored a game-high 27 points and hit the buzzer-beating game-winner.

A win over the Tigers would clinch a spot in the field.

Richmond vs. St. Bonaventure

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

Jaylen Adams

Time: 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN)

Speaking strictly from an RPI standpoint, St. Bonaventure (22) should be a lock for the tournament.

Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com agrees, with the Bonnies safely in his projected field as a No. 9 seed.

Still, an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament would no doubt leave them sweating it out on Selection Sunday, so it's not a stretch to call Friday's opening matchup with Richmond a must-win game.

St. Bonaventure came away with a 97-88 victory when the teams met on Feb. 10.

A win over the Spiders (RPI 184) won't do much to strengthen St. Bonaventure's resume, but a loss would be the Bonnies' worst of the season and a serious black eye for their credentials.

Providence vs. Xavier

Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

With wins over potential No. 1 seeds Villanova and Xavier, as well as tournament locks Creighton and Butler, Providence has some believing it's already earned an NCAA tournament bid.

However, it's still hard to overlook a trio of brutal losses to Minnesota (RPI: 171), DePaul (RPI: 179) and UMass (RPI: 231) on the opposite end of its resume.

Yes, Minnesota was ranked at the time, but the point still stands.

A second win against Creighton on Thursday helps, but they'll need to play Xavier tough Friday to feel any sense of security heading into Sunday.

Another win over the Musketeers, and they're in for sure.

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee

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Quinndary Weatherspoon

Time: 7 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

There's a reason Mississippi State is on the bubble despite a 22-10 overall record and a .500 showing in SEC play.

The Bulldogs have just three top-50 wins—Texas A&M (24), Arkansas (30) and Missouri (33)—and eight of their victories came against teams with an RPI under 200.

There's also a pair of rough losses to Vanderbilt (122) and Ole Miss (134) clouding the resume.

However, after pulling out an 80-77 win over fellow tournament hopeful LSU on Thursday, and with several other bubble teams losing, they're back in the tournament conversation.

A win over Tennessee would likely be enough to push them onto the bracket.

However, that's a tall order, as the Volunteers scored a 76-54 victory when the teams met earlier this season.

UCLA vs. Arizona

Leon Bennett/Getty Images

Aaron Holiday

Time: 9 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

UCLA has a road win over Arizona, neutral-site victory over Kentucky and a season sweep of USC propping up a solid tournament resume.

However, a 3-3 finish to the regular season and the overall mediocrity of the Pac-12 this season has them residing squarely on the bubble.

An 88-77 victory over Stanford on Thursday was a must-win game, and that sets up a semifinals matchup with No. 1 seed Arizona.

The Bruins beat the Wildcats 82-74 on Feb. 8, as DeAndre Ayton (7-of-19 shooting, 16 points) and Rawle Alkins (2-of-9 shooting, five points) were both held in check and all five UCLA starters finished in double-figures.

Pac-12 leading scorer Aaron Holiday went off for 34 points on 5-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc in Thursday's win over Stanford. If he stays hot, the Wildcats will have their hands full.

For the Bruins, it's win and they're in.

Lose, and it'll be an agonizing day-and-a-half leading up to Selection Sunday.

USC vs. Oregon

Michael Owen Baker/Associated Press

Chimezie Metu

Time: 11:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Oregon overcame an 11-point deficit to beat Utah in the quarterfinals late Thursday night, effectively popping the Utes' bubble in the process. Now the Ducks will look to deal USC a significant blow in the semifinals.

It was a rough day for the Trojans, despite picking up a 61-48 win over Oregon State.

The team's best win of the season—a neutral-site victory against Middle Tennessee—might now be against a non-tournament team after the Blue Raiders lost in the Conference USA quarterfinals.

Meanwhile, two of the team's three other top-50 wins also came against the aforementioned Utes, who now appear to be on the outside looking in.

Looking ahead to Friday, the Trojans beat the Ducks twice during the regular season. However, it was by a combined seven points, and Oregon is playing good basketball right now at 5-1 in its last six games.

It won't be an easy game.