Boise St., Cincinnati, Texas, TCU: Which Undefeated Team Is the Most Suspect?

Four unbeatens linger in and around the BCS top 10. I'd like to examine each one more closely and try to find out what part of each team is strongest, what part is weakest, and what each team needs to change or prove in order to silence any doubts about whether they are BCS championship material.

Is it...Boise?

One thing you can say about Boise State: they really don't travel well. That's not to say their home/road split personality isn't typical of most teams. Only that in Boise's case, it's a little more pronounced.

On average, their defense gives up 15 more points per game (23 PPG total) on the road than at home.

Against Fresno State, the Boise front seven, which had so roughly manhandled the Oregon Ducks' rushing attack in the opening game to the tune of 31 yards on 17 attempts, got gashed for 320 yards and three touchdowns, allowing 8.2 YPA.

Many of those yards came on long runs of 69, 60, and 68 yards by Ryan Matthews, currently the WAC's leader in rushing yards. Matthews' inspired play continually swung the momentum back to the Bulldogs and forced Boise to answer back.

The 17-point margin of victory in Boise's 51-34 win should not be misinterpreted: Fresno State answered each time Boise tried to pull away until a late Bronco interception in the fourth quarter sealed the Boise victory decisively.

Against Tulsa, it was Boise's secondary that allowed the Golden Hurricane to hang around long after the game should have been decided. Tulsa's defense deserves credit for bottling up Kellen Moore for most of the second half, but it was Slick Shelley's 55-yard reception five minutes into the fourth quarter that put the game within reach, 28-21.

It took a defensive stand and a turnover on downs for the game to ultimately be decided in the final minute.

So Boise struggles to put their opponent away; at least they win, right? But what happens if they go down early, and redshirt sophomore Kellen Moore isn't able to score points? What happens when they encounter a team that's able to run and throw deep?

The good news is, they might not have to face a team with balance like that until bowl season.

This weekend's game at Hawaii will be a test—Hawai'i hasn't dominated statistically, but they did beat the Broncos at home in 2007, and they lead the WAC in yards passing (possibly because they never run).

They're a worse overall team defensively than the Golden Hurricane, but if they can manage a few big plays through the air and avoid the D-line pass rush, it will be crucial to see whether Boise can respond and overcome.

The Broncos should then coast at home against San Jose State. But they'll be tested again on the road at Louisiana Tech.

The Bulldogs are second in the conference in scoring defense, holding opponents to 8.7 points per game at home, and first in passing, allowing only 168.3 yards through the air. They held the prolific Hawaii passing attack to six points, snapping a 62-game touchdown streak for the Rainbow Warriors.

Boise should be able to pound some yards out on the ground, but if Kellen Moore struggles through the air, winning won't come easy, and they'll have to show they can overcome their home/road schizophrenia.

Other games to watch for are home tilts against the Idaho Vandals, currently 6-1, and Nevada. Although the Wolf Pack haven't had the season many expected, their offense under Nate Kaepernick might be clicking in time to test Boise's 57-2 home record.

If Boise wants to compete for a BCS berth, they'll have to do it by winning in dominant fashion whether it's at home or away, or they'll start to see that No. 4 BCS ranking slip week to week. They can start this weekend in Manoa by playing competitively and answering some questions in the secondary.

If they lose, there will be hell to pay.

Is it...Texas?

Hey, Longhorns fans. How tired are you of hearing how your team hasn't proved anything?

Unfortunately, I've only got more of the same for you. Despite boasting the best scoring offense in the Big 12, Texas' reckoning day is coming.

It won't be for a while though. It's common knowledge now that Texas' only significant remaining matchup is against Okie State in Stillwater, and road challenge or not, they're the worst pass defense in the league, allowing 255 yards per game.

Far from an upset, the Oklahoma State game should be a blowout in the Longhorns' favor, IF Colt McCoy can look at all like he did last year, when he had the second-highest QB rating (next to Sam Bradford) and the highest completion percentage in the country.

Right, well, that was then, etc. And it's safer to say we just don't know that much about McCoy and his team, who have played four of their first six at home, and one (the Red River Shootout) at a neutral location.

Their offense was slow getting started against Wyoming, was in a shootout with Texas Tech (naturally) after scoring no offensive touchdowns in the first quarter (their only seven points came on a punt return touchdown by Jordan Shipley), and was held to 16 points despite facing a Bradford-less Oklahoma.

Turnovers have done it, mostly. McCoy has thrown seven interceptions to only three touchdowns, absurd when one considers he had eight picks on the entire year last year, against 38 touchdowns . His statistical regression is grounds for serious worry. In fact, were it not for a diving save, a late pick against Oklahoma might have gone for six and cost the Longhorns the game and prevented this whole conversation.

Why has this been the case? I think it's because McCoy is sorely lacking in receivers to throw to. The departure of Quan Cosby, who had 92 receptions last year, has meant teams can blanket Jordan Shipley. And with the loss to injury of all those Texas tight ends in the preseason, McCoy is left without a safety valve downfield.

It also doesn't help that Chris Ogbonnaya, underrated as he was, is also gone. As the Texas offense still scrambles for a replacement, it's a wonder they've been able to average 42 points per game.

Which brings us to the issue: will they lose, and if so, when? I've already flatly dismissed the Oklahoma State game, but that's only because I wonder if it will take that long. I think the Missouri game this weekend will better test how the Longhorns play on the road.

The Tigers are fourth in the conference in pass defense, and remain hungry for their first Big 12 win. Sean Weatherspoon provides excellent run support—he's currently in the conversation for the Lombardi trophy, given to the nation's best linebacker—and plays well in coverage.

Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp already smells blood—Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert is scheduled to play despite an ankle sprain —so this might be a chance for the Texas defense to show why the Longhorns don't need to score a lot of points to keep winning.

But if the Tigers show any success at all in containing the Longhorn offense, it will spell trouble for Texas down the road. Maybe not against Baylor, UCF, or Kansas, but boy, A&M beat Texas at College Station in 2007 (and piled on McCoy's concussion troubles then, too, as I remember).

If Missouri doesn't give them trouble enough, let me be the first to call an A&M upset at the end of the year. I see the Aggies taking down their city slicker rivals and shaking up the BCS standings while they're at it, once Von Miller, the Big 12's leader in sacks, gets his arms wrapped around Colt McCoy.

Is it...TCU?

Here's a great stat: TCU's defense averages the same amount of points allowed on the road as they do at home (13.7). They're like the bizarro Boise State.

That's not so much the case on offense, where the Horned Frogs post a 15-point differential between home and road. They only scored 14 at Clemson, and had their rock-solid defense to thank for stopping two Clemson drives deep in TCU territory.

Their 20-17 win against Air Force on the road could have been by a greater margin but for three troubling turnovers in the fourth quarter that kept the game close and the unbeaten record in question.

Finally, TCU got off to a slow start against Colorado State, losing 6-0 at the end of the first quarter before reeling off 44 straight.

The weakness is passer Andy Dalton, who's only thrown eight touchdowns to three picks. That sounds like a Jason Campbell statsheet, and the comparison is apt: this is not an offense that takes a lot of risk.

And that lack of risk and explosive ability might catch up to them this weekend in Provo against the best passing offense in the MWC. Max Hall and the Cougars will try and avoid the TCU pass rush (and might avoid running the ball altogether—TCU allows less than 85 yards per game and has given up only three rushing touchdowns on the year) and pick on the TCU secondary all day.

The good news is, TCU DE Jerry Hughes leads the conference in sacks with eight and will be applying pressure all day.

The bad news is, this is the same BYU that knocked out Sam Bradford in the Sooners' opening game, so expect a similarly successful pass rush. It's doubtful that Dalton will be able to handle that kind of pressure, so I would expect coach Gary Patterson to put the ball in the running game's hands.

The rushing attack is split between Joseph Turner, a senior, and fourth in the conference in rushing yards, and Ed Wesley, a freshman. Neither back has more than a hundred carries on the year, so Patterson will have to sense who's hot heading into the game.

Another possible x-factor is wide receiver Jeremy Kerley, an able punt and kick returner for TCU, who's taken two back for touchdowns in TCU wins over SMU and Colorado State. BYU has been terrific in punt coverage but iffy in kickoff coverage, so a lightning return could jazz up TCU's sideline and swing momentum in their favor.

In spite of that, I don't see TCU surviving this weekend. Between BYU's good defensive numbers and TCU's iffy offense on the road, this game will probably go the Cougars' way—not by much, maybe by as little as a few field goals, but BYU's offense is just good enough to overwhelm the Horned Frogs in Provo.

Were this game to be at home for TCU, I think they ride it out, for what it's worth.

If the Horned Frogs do get the win, however, I hope the voters recognize what statistical and intangible trends TCU needed to overcome to do so. I'll be rooting for the Horned Frogs the whole way, and waiting for them to get bumped up into legitimate BCS contention with a big W this weekend.

Is it...Cincy?

Not exactly the sexiest college football team out there, the Cincinnati Bearcats still lead the Big East conference in scoring (at home or on the road, if you're curious).

They show occasional flaws on defense, allowing more yards rushing (120) and passing (208) than in previous years. Their pass rush is sub-par, and they gave up a few more big plays against South Florida's BJ Daniels than I'm sure Brian Kelly is comfortable with.

That said, they bend, but they rarely break. They play terrific defense in the red zone, and are +9 in turnover margin, which leads the conference.

They lead the conference in scoring as well. Tony Pike can chuck it deep, Mardy Gilyard can catch it, and the rushing attack, though not dynamic, is, at the very least, complementary. Carries are split between Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead, who average 6.6 and 5.9 YPC, respectively.

That said, the rushing game is not game-breaking. Thus, the success of the Bearcats' offense hinges on Tony Pike, for good or ill. If his wrist injury is serious (and it's a re-aggravation of an earlier injury, which is never a good sign), it's crucial that Cincinnati's offensive coaches respond in this weekend's game against Louisville.

The Cardinals are terrible on sides of the ball that don't even exist yet, but they've come close in recent games. They could summon the will to get their first Big East win of the year if Steve Kragthorpe gets them thinking upset. Louisville actually has a decent passing defense to compliment it's league-worst rushing defense, so with Pike out, this weekend's game will be weakness on strength.

If a dynamic rusher for Cincy should make his presence felt (even if that rusher is Pike's backup, QB Zach Collaros, who tore off game-sealing runs against the Bulls, and looks more than capable of making a play on zone reads or draws), it will show that Cincy's offensive staff is capable of adapting and triumphing rather than hinging everything on Pike.

A victory without Pike would do wonders for Cincinnati, because they're heading into the teeth of their schedule. The win on the road against South Florida was huge, and rather resounding, but Cincinnati has no time to celebrate. After Louisville, they go to the Carrier Dome to face Greg Paulus and the Orangemen under new head coach Doug Marrone.

Marrone's team hasn't done much besides beat Northwestern and take Minnesota to the wire, but they'll be gunning for Cincy, and their rush defense numbers sit at a not-shabby third in-conference.

The next games are at home against UConn, No. 23 West Virginia, and Illinois, who should be fresh off the firing of man-child Ron Zook. West Virginia will be no walk in the park if Jarrett Brown is healed from a concussion, and one of these days Juice Williams is bound to have a good game, so Cincy has to stay focused on the BCS goal.

Finally, the Bearcats travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers in what might shape up to be the Big East Conference Championship.

Pittsburgh remains unbeaten and has established a conference rushing leader in Dion Lewis, so Cincinnati's defense better be hot heading into that game. If they're not, they'll risk Pitt rushing them into the ground like the Panthers did against Rutgers last week.

Of these four, Cincy is your most suspect, but only if Pike is not at full strength. If Cincinnati reestablishes their offensive identity this weekend, they won't need to risk getting their questionable defense exposed.

Hat tip: All stats provided by cfbstats.com.