Under-the-Radar Teams That Could Steal 2018 NCAA Tournament Bids
There are two types of teams capable of stealing NCAA tournament bids.
The first is a standout team in what is expected to be a one-bid conference losing in its conference tournament and suddenly landing on the bubble. Schools such as Loyola (Chicago) and South Dakota State fit the bill.
The other is a major conference team that has hung on the periphery of relevance all season and could build a strong enough case with a hot streak in its conference tournament. Think Nebraska and Washington.
Ahead, we'll take a closer look at 10 under-the-radar teams that could steal a tournament bid.
The only stipulation for inclusion was that the team must not have appeared in the Associated Press Top 25 poll at any point during the season. Otherwise, it would be hard to say the team fit the "under-the-radar" description.
Boise State
1 of 10
Record: 22-7 (12-5 MWC)
RPI: 48
BPI: 55
SOS: 119
What's Gone Wrong
Boise State is lacking in quality wins. The Broncos have just five victories against top-100 RPI teams—Loyola-Chicago (32), Oregon (74), Illinois State (87), Fresno State (94) and San Diego State (98)—and 14 of their wins are against teams ranked outside the top 150.
What's Gone Right
Aside from an unfortunate loss to Utah State (152) earlier this month and a neutral-site loss to Iowa State (125) in November, the Broncos don't have any glaringly awful losses on their resume.
They played Nevada tough twice with a six-point loss on the road and a five-point loss at home, and if they can reach the Mountain West title game and play the Wolf Pack tough again, it might be enough to punch their ticket.
Momentum Meter
The Broncos are 2-3 in their last five games, with road losses to Utah State and San Diego State and a home loss to Nevada during that span. They'll close out the regular season with a chance for redemption against a Wyoming team that beat them in overtime earlier this year.
Louisiana-Lafayette
2 of 10
Record: 25-4 (15-1 Sun Belt)
RPI: 35
BPI: 44
SOS: 180
What's Gone Wrong
The strength of schedule is a dagger for Louisiana (Lafayette) and admittedly makes the team a long shot to be included in the field if it fails to win the Sun Belt Conference tournament. The Ragin' Cajuns played just two RPI top-100 teams all season, losing to Clemson (10) by 29 points on the road and Wyoming (84) by nine at a neutral site.
What's Gone Right
A lot, considering they've only lost four games this season. Aside from the two aforementioned defeats, they were beaten handily by Ole Miss (114) and lost against Sun Belt No. 2 seed Georgia State (139) on the road, so they don't have any terrible losses.
Non-conference wins against Southland Conference leader Nicholls (134) and Iowa (167) are also at least worthy of a mention.
Momentum Meter
Momentum is on their side considering they've gone 15-1 in conference play, and they'll be the overwhelming favorites to win the Sun Belt tournament. They'll at least need to reach the title game to keep their slim at-large hopes alive.
Loyola-Chicago
3 of 10
Record: 25-5 (15-3 MVC)
RPI: 32
BPI: 52
SOS: 130
What's Gone Wrong
A non-conference loss to UW-Milwaukee (236) is a black eye on their resume, and the Ramblers also dropped early conference tilts to Missouri State (132) and Indiana State (174).
What's Gone Right
The Ramblers announced themselves as a team to watch with a 65-59 victory on Dec. 6 over a Florida team that was ranked No. 5 in the AP poll at the time. They also made the most of their weak conference schedule, picking up two wins each against quality Illinois State (87) and Southern Illinois (92) squads.
Will conference dominance and one marquee win be enough to get them an at-large if they fall short in the Missouri Valley tournament?
Momentum Meter
After a 1-2 start in conference, they've gone 14-1 in their last 15 games to emerge as the clear leader in the MVC and a legitimate bubble team. Still, they'll at least need to reach the conference title game to avoid that bubble being burst.
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Mississippi State
4 of 10
Record: 21-9 (9-8 SEC)
RPI: 68
BPI: 64
SOS: 95
What's Gone Wrong
Mississippi State has had ample opportunities for a signature win; the Bulldogs just haven't been able to capitalize. Losses to Auburn (7), Tennessee (8), Cincinnati (11) and Kentucky (16) all would have been huge resume-boosters.
Instead, a non-conference schedule full of cupcake games hurts their cause more than any single win helps it, as they have eight wins against teams outside the RPI top-200.
What's Gone Right
The only "bad" losses on the Bulldogs' resume are conference games on the road against Ole Miss (114) and Vanderbilt (122), and they lost those games by a combined seven points. While they didn't boost their stock with any top-25 wins, they do have quality victories against Arkansas (27) and Texas A&M (28) among their seven victories against top-100 teams.
Momentum Meter
A 2-5 start to conference play had the Bulldogs looking like an afterthought, but they've gone 7-3 since and guaranteed themselves at least a .500 record in league play. They squandered an opportunity for a big win against Tennessee on Tuesday, but they're still playing quality basketball heading into the conference tournament.
Nebraska
5 of 10
Record: 22-9 (13-5 Big Ten)
RPI: 59
BPI: 60
SOS: 106
What's Gone Wrong
That gaudy 13-5 conference record is a bit deceiving. Only one of those games—a dominant 72-52 win against Michigan (25) on Jan. 18—is against a tournament-bound team.
The Cornhuskers lost to Purdue (9), Michigan State (13) and Ohio State (18), while also suffering a bad loss to Illinois (169) earlier this month. Meanwhile, the team's best non-conference win came against Boston College (102) in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
What's Gone Right
The Big Ten had not been nearly as strong this season as in years past, but 13 conference wins are still nothing to sneeze at.
That loss to Illinois is the Cornhuskers' only defeat to a team outside the RPI top-100, and they played a potential No. 1 seed in Kansas (5) to the wire in a 73-72 loss on Dec. 16. They pass the eye test, but is their resume good enough?
Momentum Meter
The Cornhuskers are rolling at 8-1 in their last nine games. They will be the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament and are on a collision course with No. 5-seeded Michigan if the seeding holds, so they'll have an opportunity for a quality win right out of the gates.
A victory over the Wolverines might be enough to punch their ticket.
New Mexico State
6 of 10
Record: 24-5 (11-2 WAC)
RPI: 50
BPI: 72
SOS: 158
What's Gone Wrong
New Mexico State had a strong case for an at-large bid before losing back-to-back conference games to Utah Valley (78) and Seattle (176) earlier this month. Now things get a bit trickier if the Aggies don't win their conference tournament, as the WAC is traditionally a one-bid league.
Their only other bad loss was to San Diego (144), as they were beaten by USC (31) and Saint Mary's (38) in non-conference action.
What's Gone Right
A neutral-site win against Miami (24) is the headliner on their resume, and they also beat Davidson (90), UC Irvine (121) and Illinois (169) in non-conference play.
A defense that ranks No. 11 in the nation according to KenPom's Adjusted Efficiency metric could also be a chip in their favor if the selection committee digs that deep.
Momentum Meter
The Aggies have rallied from that brief two-game losing streak to win their last two conference games, and they should have no problem in the regular-season finale against Texas-Rio Grande (222). Still, it's the same story as the other small conference schools on this list—anything short of a trip to the conference title game ends their tourney hopes.
South Dakota State
7 of 10
Record: 25-6 (13-1 Summit)
RPI: 52
BPI: 91
SOS: 163
What's Gone Wrong
South Dakota State only has one top-50 victory this season, which makes it particularly tough to build an at-large resume, especially considering their strength of schedule.
A neutral-site win against Buffalo (36) and a home win against conference rival South Dakota (89) highlight a resume that also includes a non-conference road win against Ole Miss (114) and a neutral-sit win over Iowa (167). Those would seem to fall under the good-not-great category.
What's Gone Right
A tournament team the past two seasons and four of the last six, the Jackrabbits are no strangers to March Madness. They also have the luxury of being able to lean on star junior Mike Daum (23.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 42.4% 3PT), one of the nation's best mid-major players.
While they may not have a marquee win, they do have some big-game experience, as they played Wichita State tough in a 95-85 loss and also faced Kansas in November.
Momentum Meter
The Jackrabbits are 18-2 in their last 20 games, with their only losses coming on the road against Colorado (79) and South Dakota (89). A loss to anyone other than South Dakota in the conference tournament would put an end to their slim at-large hopes.
St. Bonaventure
8 of 10
Record: 23-6 (13-4 A-10)
RPI: 21
BPI: 56
SOS: 84
What's Gone Wrong
A rough stretch of games at the start of conference play saw St. Bonaventure go 2-4, including losses to Dayton (127) and Saint Joseph's (161). The Bonnies also lost their season opener at home to Niagara (166) by two points.
Add to that the fact that eight of their wins are against teams outside the RPI top-200, with five more outside the top-150, and there's a lot of filler on their resume.
What's Gone Right
There might be filler on their resume, but as evidenced by an RPI of 21, there's also a lot of meat. They split with fellow Atlantic 10 contenders Rhode Island (14) and Davidson (90) while also picking up road wins against Buffalo (36) and Syracuse (44), neutral-site wins against Vermont (56) and Maryland (65), and a home win against Northeastern (61).
Momentum Meter
The Bonnies are tied for the second-longest winning streak at 11 games. They also just beat a good Davidson team in a thrilling triple-overtime game Tuesday night—the kind of win that can pull a team together for a big stretch run.
They still can't afford to lose in the first round of the A-10 tournament, but there's no question they've built a strong resume for an at-large bid.
Utah
9 of 10
Record: 18-10 (10-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 54
BPI: 79
SOS: 58
What's Gone Wrong
While there are as many as seven Pac-12 teams that still have legitimate NCAA tournament aspirations, the overall mediocrity of the conference could mean it only winds up getting three bids. That leaves Utah squarely on the bubble.
The Utes have lost to the two best teams in the conference in terms of RPI—Arizona (17) and USC (31)—twice each, and their best wins are against a pair of bubble teams in Missouri (40) and Arizona State (42).
What's Gone Right
The Utes' worst loss came against UNLV (128), a team that was playing much better basketball at the time. That's their only loss to a team outside the top 100. And while they're lacking a true marquee win, the quantity here is impressive.
They have seven wins against top-100 teams, including two against fellow bubble team Washington which should give them a clear leg up in that head-to-head comparison.
Momentum Meter
Before losing to USC last Saturday, the Utes had won five in a row and gone 8-2 in their last 10 games. They close out the season at home with a winnable game against Colorado, before kicking off a Pac-12 tournament that will be loaded with teams desperate for one more win.
Washington
10 of 10
Record: 19-10 (9-7 Pac-12)
RPI: 51
BPI: 108
SOS: 50
What's Gone Wrong
It's been a roller-coaster season for Washington, as the Huskies have some excellent wins and some head-scratching losses. Heading into the month of February, they looked like a lock for the tournament, but a 2-4 stretch that included a loss to Oregon State (164) has shifted them to the bubble.
Two losses each to Utah and Stanford also hurts their head-to-head case with two other bubble teams.
What's Gone Right
Wins against Kansas (5) and Arizona (17) are the biggest reasons the Huskies are still in the tournament conversation. They count those two victories among eight total against top-100 teams, and aside from the Oregon State game, they don't have any bad losses.
Looking ahead, the performance of teams like Belmont (77), Montana (99) and UC Davis (104) in their respective conference tournaments will have a direct impact on the Huskies' case, as those wins could look even better a couple of weeks from now.
Momentum Meter
As mentioned, the Huskies are 2-4 in their last six games and find themselves on the bubble as a result. They still need to finish the regular season strong with home games against Oregon and Oregon State—two teams that just handed them a loss earlier this month—before setting their sights on the conference tournament.
Stats courtesy of Sports Reference, unless otherwise noted. RPI and schedule information came via the RPI breakdown pages for each team at CBS Sports.
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