NFL Combine 2018: Draft Prospects with the Most at Stake
No matter how well-regarded the prospect, everyone has something to prove—and something at stake—at the NFL Scouting Combine.
The running back whose tape doesn't show ideal speed can post a fast 40 time. The quarterback who has off-field issues can impress upon evaluators that he's turned over a new leaf. The small-school stud who made hay against lesser competition can put a new shine on his prospects by competing in like-as-like drills with the biggest stars of the college game as they all work toward the ultimate dream of NFL success. The star linebacker who must prove that he's no longer affected by an injury that made him a step slow down the stretch.
If these things don't happen, it can be ruinous for the prospect who isn't able to prove himself as someone whose issues, on or off the field, are a thing of the past. Medical tests are a major story for some. The rapid-fire interviews with NFL teams are interspersed with drill preparation and a sleep schedule that would make a Navy SEAL think twice.
For the 2018 scouting combine, here are 10 big names who still have something at stake—and for whom combine results could be life-changing.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
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"I think wide receiver. Exceptional athlete, exceptional ability to make you miss, exceptional acceleration, exceptional instinct with the ball in his hand, and that's rare for wide receivers. That's [Antonio Brown], and who else? Name me another one. Julio [Jones is] not even like that."
That's what former NFL general manager and current ESPN analyst Bill Polian said of Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson on February 19, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. Polian also said Jackson was "short and a little bit slight" despite his 6'3", 211-pound stature.
The assertion is ridiculous enough on its face, but let's say people in the NFL believe that Jackson—despite his dynamic arm, ridiculous athleticism and experience in pro-style passing concepts—can't make the transition to the NFL as a quarterback. Let's say there are those who believe he should be a receiver despite the fact that he's never done the things required of NFL receivers. Now, Jackson will have to prove, once and for all, that's he's more a total quarterback than a pure athlete—even though he's already done so over and over on the field.
The combine throwing drills, where Jackson will be tasked to align his passes with receivers he's never thrown to on multiple routes, won't tell NFL evaluators everything they need to know. Jackson will not face pressure in those drills, nor will his receivers face coverage. But he'll get to show he can make intermediate and deep passes with accuracy on par with any other quarterback in this draft class.
Additionally, Jackson will meet with NFL teams and be asked to go through whiteboard drills in which he'll show his aptitude for advanced schemes on the fly. Perhaps he shouldn't have to prove things he's already proved on the field, but the combine will be crucial for Jackson in that he can finally put these ridiculous ideas to rest.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
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Based on his tape alone, it's easy to put Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield at the top of the draft class—and perhaps the draft—in a congested quarterback group.
Last season, Mayfield completed 70.5 percent of his passes and averaged 11.5 yards per attempt, throwing for 4,627 yards, 43 touchdowns and six interceptions.
As has been the case for Michael Vick, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, Mayfield will have to answer questions about how his relatively short frame (6'1", 220 pounds) will hold up in the NFL, but he'll have to wait until he hits an NFL field before he can do that. He'll also have to prove he can thrive outside a spread offense in which many of the route concepts were fairly simple and he had a ton of easy openings.
In the meantime, and when he's interviewing with NFL teams at the combine, Mayfield will have to deal with other questions—most notably relating to his maturity.
The obscene gesture he made on the sideline against Kansas last season was innocuous in the grand scheme, though no NFL team wants a quarterback who can't keep his head when the game is going on. More disconcerting is what happened last February, when Mayfield was charged with public intoxication, disorderly conduct, fleeing and resisting arrest. He reached a plea deal June 14, but that won't take the specter of the arrest away.
There's no doubt Mayfield has shown talent on the field, but he has to display a different level of evolution to reach the next step successfully. That process starts now.
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
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NFL teams have always loved big quarterbacks with big arms, and on those two counts, Wyoming's Josh Allen is very enticing. At 6'5" and blessed with an arm that can make any throw with relative ease, Allen fits the "big guy/big arm" paradigm better than any quarterback in this draft class.
Were these the only two qualifications for NFL success, Allen would be on his way. Unfortunately, there's far more to the position, and it's in several other areas where he still has to prove himself.
He completed just 56.2 percent of his passes during his collegiate career, and his 21 interceptions to 44 touchdowns in two full seasons begs further concern. Allen's completion rate was affected to a point by a subpar supporting cast, but he also showed grievous inaccuracy at times, especially under pressure. When he's standing still in a clean pocket, Allen can string together impressive streaks of play. But when he's shown additional pressure and more advanced coverages, he tends to regress.
The NFL team that drafts Allen will have to be comfortable with his developmental status. The throwing drills will help Allen as much as anybody if he's on the ball, though he won't face pressure or coverage, of course. The simple step of aligning his throws with receivers he's never connected with before will put his accuracy narrative on a better foot.
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Sam Darnold, QB, USC
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USC quarterback Sam Darnold has put himself in the discussion for the top overall pick in the 2018 draft with two seasons for the Bruins in which he frequently impressed, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 7,229 yards, 57 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.
Darnold's status as the top cat at a legendary school is a primary reason for his highly-regarded status, and it also may be why he's chosen not to throw at the combine, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Instead, Schefter reports, Darnold will focus on team interviews and athletic testing.
Unless he has an injury we don't know about, this could be a mistake. Schefter also tweeted out a list of former top-rated quarterbacks who refused to throw at the combine. There are as many busts (JaMarcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, Blaine Gabbert, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn) as there are players—who at least at one point—were considered stars (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford).
Darnold's case is more complicated. While he doesn't show obvious bust potential, he's not quite at the level most of those future stars were when they made themselves available for the draft. He has prototypical size with a good arm and the ability to work in advanced offenses against tough-schemed defenses, but he also has a long delivery and footwork that gets in the way of his accuracy and mobility at times.
This is not a case of a quarterback who's proved enough to shove throwing drills aside. As the decision will inevitably make people scrutinize Darnold's tape even more closely, it could easily backfire on him. Certainly, it'll be the first question he's asked by every NFL team and at his combine media session.
Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
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Depending on who you're talking to, the top of the running back class generally starts the same, with Penn State's Saquon Barkley, and gets interesting from there. LSU's Derrius Guice earns a lot of mentions as a power back, and USC's Ronald Jones intrigues with his agility and versatility.
But it's Georgia running back Sony Michel, who led the SEC with 7.9 yards per carry and put up 1,227 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground in 2017, who might be the late breakout back in this class.
Michel is an aggressive and decisive runner who has outstanding vision to his gaps. When he gets a head of steam running north and south, he's very tough to stop. At times, he'll take this aggressiveness to a potentially negative level, outrunning his blockers when he should be waiting for things to develop, but that's an easy fix.
He's also an outstanding blocker, and with his potential as a receiver (64 catches for 621 yards and six touchdowns in his collegiate career), he has every-down potential in the right system even in an NFL where running back rotations are the norm.
One debit to Michel's style is that he's not especially agile and is more of a straight-ahead runner. Good performances in the cone drills and other agility exercises could increase his standing among evaluators who seek a do-it-all back with first-round talent.
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
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When you watch Derrius Guice's LSU tape, you can understand why the Tigers weren't too worked up about losing Leonard Fournette to the draft last year. Guice was a perfect fit in LSU's power-based offense, outpacing Fournette in 2016 and returning to rush for 1,251 yards and 11 touchdowns on 237 carries. He added 18 catches for 124 yards and another two scores.
Guice's tape is very exciting for any NFL team in need of a bruising back who can maintain an offense with physical strength and short-area agility. His knack for after-contact yardage and elusiveness brings to mind Marshawn Lynch in his prime.
That said, Guice worked through injuries last season, and they affected his long speed and ability to hit an extra gear around the edge. If he's able to run a quick 40-yard dash and stand out in the agility drills, that would put those concerns to rest and possibly put Guice in the top half of the first round as a prospect—which, based on his tape, is where he belongs.
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
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Leighton Vander Esch had just one season of full starting experience with the Boise State Broncos, but he made the most of his opportunities in 2017 with 91 solo tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, three interceptions and four forced fumbles. Draft analyst Mike Mayock recently opined that Vander Esch's off-the-ball performance against Oregon was as good as he saw from any linebacker last season. It's easy to get excited about his potential.
A basketball star in high school, the 6'4", 240-pound Vander Esch shows tremendous speed and explosiveness when moving to the pocket, and he has the short-area agility to excel in coverage. While he still has room to put on a few pounds, he's no slouch as a run-stopper. Per Pro Football Focus, his 57 run stops led all FBS inside linebackers last season.
Moreover, Vander Esch just looks like the kind of athlete who will test well at the combine. If he does, he could become a first-round pick and the cornerstone of an NFL defense for the next several years. The potential is clearly there.
Shaquem Griffin, LB, Central Florida
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It wasn't until he excelled at the Senior Bowl that UCF linebacker Shaquem Griffin received a combine invitation that came too late in the minds of many.
The 2016 AAC Defensive Player of the Year and twin brother of current Seahawks cornerback Shaquill Griffin totaled 122 solo tackles, 33.5 tackles for loss, 18.5 sacks, three interceptions, 16 passes defensed and four forced fumbles in his time with the Knights. At 6'1" and 223 pounds, he fits the modern prototype of the dime linebacker who can do everything from blitzing to run-stopping to short-area coverage.
And if you didn't know, Griffin has accomplished all of this without a left hand—it was amputated when he was four years old due to a birth defect, but he's never let that stop him. Griffin does well handling the ball, and he's adapted different techniques to be a good tackler. This is one guy you won't have to tell to wrap up when he is close to the ball-carrier.
Ball drills will be of extreme importance for Griffin at the combine, but based on his game tape, he should do well in the agility drills. He's not let his handicap become a handicap, and it will be fascinating to see how he progresses in the NFL.
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