NFL Mock Draft 2018: 1st-Round Predictions for Most Intriguing Prospects
With just under three months to go until the 2018 NFL draft, no one knows exactly what the teams at the top of the selection order will do.
In all honesty, some of those teams may not know exactly what they'll do in the first round until the second their selection comes up on the clock.
Plenty of variables will be at play on April 26 at AT&T Stadium, but one of the few things that can be agreed upon right now is which prospects will be taken on the first night of the draft.
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Based off what general managers and coaches have been saying in the last week at Senior Bowl and at their own facilities, we took a stab at what the first round could look like.
2018 NFL 1st-Round Mock Draft
1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
2. New York Giants: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3. Indianapolis Colts: Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
4. Cleveland Browns: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
5. Denver Broncos: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
6. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio
8. Chicago Bears: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
9. San Francisco 49ers*: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
10. Oakland Raiders*: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
11. Miami Dolphins: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
12. Cincinnati Bengals: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
13. Washington Redskins: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
14. Green Bay Packers: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
15. Arizona Cardinals: Connor Williams, OT, Texas
16. Baltimore Ravens: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
18. Seattle Seahawks: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
19. Dallas Cowboys: Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
20. Detroit Lions: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
21. Buffalo Bills: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
22. Buffalo Bills (via Chiefs): Arden Key, DE, LSU
23. Los Angeles Rams: Billy Price, C, Ohio State
24. Carolina Panthers: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M
25. Tennessee Titans: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
26. Atlanta Falcons: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
27. New Orleans Saints: Malik Jefferson, DE, Texas
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
30. Minnesota Vikings: Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford
31. New England Patriots: Mike Hughes, CB, UCF
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Derwin James, S, Florida State
*San Francisco and Oakland will participate in a coin flip for the No. 9 selection.
Giants Quarterback Situation Could Alter 1st Round
Barring the Cleveland Browns shocking the world and not selecting a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick, the New York Giants could be poised to deliver the biggest surprise of the first round, one that alters the complexion of the 30 picks below them.
The Giants aren't in a tight predicament at the position like other teams in the top half of the first round, which could lead to them selecting a player that fits a bigger need and picking a quarterback in the later rounds.
New general manager Dave Gettleman detailed how intricate the process of selecting a quarterback is, per Dan Salomone of the team's official website.
"If you take a guy just to take a guy, especially at the quarterback position, and he fails, you set yourself back five years," Gettleman said. "You set yourself back five years because there are teams that are in what I call quarterback hell. They’ve got quality defense, they’ve got a good special teams, and they’re going 7-9, 8-8, 9-7. And now if there is a legitimate guy, they’ve got to trade up and give away the farm to get the guy."
The new brass that includes Gettleman and head coach Pat Shurmur has trust in Eli Manning to start at quarterback in 2018. After watching Manning's 2017 film, Gettleman gave the quarterback a strong vote of confidence, per SNY's Ralph Vacchiano.
Since swapping Manning for Philip Rivers with the then-San Diego Chargers in 2004, the Giants have selected four quarterbacks, with 2017 third-round selection Davis Webb being the highest pick of the quartet. Andre Woodson, Rhett Bomar and Ryan Nassib are the other three.
If the Giants think Webb can continue to develop as the successor to Manning or believe that Manning has multiple years left in him, they could pass on a signal caller with the No. 2 pick and go after a player like Penn State running back Saquon Barkley to improve the offense.
Conversely, the Giants could take advantage of the talented quarterback class, select one and have him compete with Webb for the backup position while he develops under Manning.
Will the Browns Pick Offensive Players with Both Top-5 Selections?
Assuming the Browns front office agrees with the conventional thought in most mock drafts that they should pick a quarterback with the top selection, they will go after another key asset with the No. 4 pick.
It would be wise for the Browns to take a serious look at Barkley, who is widely regarded as the best player at his position in the 2018 draft class.
The last time the Browns used two first-round picks on offensive players, Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden were brought aboard with the third and 22nd picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.
With two first-round picks in 2014 and 2015, the Browns split their selections between offense and defense. Last year, Cleveland chose two defensive players before picking tight end David Njoku with the 29th-overall pick.
As long as the Giants and Indianapolis Colts don't scoop up Barkley with the second and third picks, he should be an easy choice for the Browns, as he would round out a nice collection of offensive weapons, including Njoku and 2016 first-round pick Coley Coleman at wide receiver, that would also include the quarterback chosen at No. 1.
Going with a pair of offensive standouts like USC quarterback Sam Darnold and Barkley seems like the easy way to go, but the Browns could be swayed in a different direction if either NC State defensive end Bradley Chubb or Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are available. Drafting any other defensive player at No. 4 would seem like a stretch at this point in the process.
How Serious Are the Broncos and Jets About Drafting a Quarterback?
If the Browns and Giants take quarterbacks with the first two picks and the Browns take Barkley off the board at No. 4, like we predicted above, the focus up and down the draft board will be on the moves of the Denver Broncos at No. 5 and New York Jets at No. 6.
What the Broncos and Jets do could shape the rest of the quarterback market for the first round, and it could entice a team to trade up to snag a highly-coveted prospect like Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield.
Denver hasn't experienced a ton of success at quarterback since Peyton Manning retired, and it will be firmly under the microscope until it either makes a move for a free agent or takes a signal caller to develop in the draft.
Executive vice president of football operations and general manager John Elway got a firsthand look at Allen and Mayfield at the Senior Bowl last week, and he will do his due diligence on Darnold and Rosen before April as well.
No one is sure which way the Broncos will lean in April, but Elway is aware of the pressure that comes with selecting in the top five. He also hinted at what Denver might be capable of during the draft.
"Any time you draft that high you have to make 'em count," Elway said, per Mike Klis of 9News in Denver. "We’ve got a lot of picks so we have the ammo also (to trade), so we’ve got to make sure we make them all count."
As for the Jets, they will be at the mercy of the five teams ahead of them, unless they decide to trade up to get ahead of the Broncos. The Colts at No. 3 seem like the most viable trade partner if the Jets consider going down that road.
With Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty not panning out the way the Jets have hoped so far, the AFC East side could dabble in the quarterback market with Allen, Mayfield or both available.
Allen may be the safer pick if the Jets want to avoid Mayfield's exposure in the volatile New York media market, but the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner could be worth the risk if the Jets don't like Allen.
Just like the five teams above them, all eyes will be on the Jets and their selection. If Mayfield is taken off the board, it could cause a panic further down the first round that may trigger trades by other teams to go after a quarterback before others select the rest of the top-end talent at the position.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
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