Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers: Week Seven Preview and Keys to the Game

Looking ahead to the Week Seven matchup of the Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers

The 50th anniversary season was supposed to be special and filled with nostalgia. It is special already, but not for just the nostalgic reasons that people were expecting.

This year's edition of the Buffalo Bills is as bizarre a season as I can recall in quite some time. There are things about the Bills that are strange to begin with, like the four straight defeats in Super Bowls, to the wacky Buffalo weather, to the decision to farm out one of their eight home games to a foreign country that refuses to let the Bills play in the natural elements that they are accustomed to.

Look at the past two games for a deeper appreciation at why this year is so abnormal.

Last week the Bills gave up more than 300 yards in rushing and won the game. That is just not a normal recipe for success. Why the Jets continued to throw one interception after another is quite mysterious. All they had to do was continue to hand the ball off to Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, drive it down the field, wear out the defense and run out the clock.

Apparently, the tape of the New Orleans Saints second-half gameplan to beat the Bills never made it to the Jets' offices. Drew Brees stopped passing the ball, and handed it off to his talented running backs. Miami pretty much did the same thing, as their ground game pounded away on the Bills and eventually wore the defense out.

Then the following week, Cleveland completed just two passes for the entire game and still won it. Bizarre indeed. That shouldn't happen in the NFL.

Dare to imagine that if Leodis McKelvin had simply taken a knee in the end zone during the Monday Night Football opener, the Bills would now be sitting there in a three-way tie for first place with New England and the Jets. Improbable, right, but true?

So now the Bills travel to Carolina and they will probably see another steady diet of rushing attempts all day long. Is another game of 200-plus yards allowed on the ground facing the Bills defense?

Last week Carolina defeated Tampa Bay, and they tore up the Bucs defense with 262 yards rushing compared to only 65 yards passing by Jake Delhomme. That effort was Delhomme's lowest total in the 85 games he's played for the Panthers since 2003.

The Bills should expect to see a whole lot of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart this Sunday. That duo has combined for six rushing touchdowns this year. The Bills have yet to score a rushing touchdown after six contests.

The Bills and Panthers Are Actually Quite Similar

1) Both teams have a high profile wide receiver that is not performing up to their own high standards—the Bills' Terrell Owens and the Panthers' Steve Smith. Smith managed one catch last week, which is one more catch than Owens was able to muster against New Orleans.

2) Both teams have starting quarterbacks that have been struggling to find steady production through the air. Just to illustrate how rough the sledding has gone for both Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards this year consider this:

Both have completed 59 percent of their pass attempts this year. Not what you want to see.

Both have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, again not what you want to see.

Both would like to make their top wide receivers happy, but have trouble doing it.

3) Both defenses give up points in the 21-to-25 a game average, and are similarly ranked in both pass defense and rush defense. Carolina has the No. 2 net pass defense at 156 yards per game, while the Bills are No. 4 overall at 170 net yards per game.

Where things start getting ugly is the rush defense numbers for both teams. Carolina is ranked No. 28 at allowing 149 yards per game on the ground, while the Bills are dead last at 181 yards per game average.

If you analyze those numbers, the conclusion would be why throw it when you can run it so easy? It is safe to assume that this logic is still being asked by Jets' fans on talk radio shows even today.

4) Both teams have losing records. Each team has two wins, so the winner of this game will be sitting there with three wins and will thus have some sort of hope that they can still be in the hunt, while the loser will see their win streak snapped at either one win or two.

5) Both teams have only played one common opponent so far—Tampa Bay, and each team beat the Bucs. Then again, who hasn't?

The Banged-Up Bills Head into Their Week Seven Contest at Carolina

Let's break it down position by position, starting with the offense.

Quarterback—Trent Edwards—Sustained a concussion last week against the Jets and is listed as day-to-day. I would be surprised if he starts this week based on the violent twist that two Jets applied after his knees were down. I know there have been some questionable calls regarding roughness on quarterbacks this year, but that was one that was obvious and nothing happened.

Running Backs and Wide Receivers—Basically these are two healthy groups. James Hardy was placed on the PUP list before the season started, and he sounds to be getting closer to being activated. If Roscoe Parrish departs, then maybe we will see Hardy as part of the Bills active receiving corps. If not Hardy, then expect to see more of Stevie Johnson.

Tight Ends—Derek Schouman (opening day starter)—Gone for the year.

Shawn Nelson—Suffered a concussion last week against the Jets. Day-to-day.

Derek Fine—Had his helmet ripped off during a skirmish, and then a Jets player punched him in the eye. The eye closed up during the game but there has been no further word on his condition.

Offensive Line—Brad Butler—(opening day starter)—Gone for the year.

Jonathan Scott—Missed last week's game against the Jets and is day-to-day

Now for the defense injuries, this is a longer list.

Defensive Line—Kyle Williams—Shoulder—Day-to-day.

Linebackers—Kawika Mitchell—(opening day starter)—Gone for the year.

Paul Posluszny—(opening day starter)—Missed games with a broken arm, but is now back.

Marcus Buggs—(back up, starter)—Gone for the year.

Defensive Secondary—Leodis McKelvin—(opening day starter)—Gone for the year.

Donte Whitner—(opening day starter)—Missed games with a surgically repaired thumb. Back now but suffered an ankle injury last week against the Jets. Day-to-day.

Terrence McGee—(opening day starter)—Chest contusion suffered last week—Day-to-day.

Bryan Scott—(opening day starter)—Ankle injury—Day-to-day—Missed last week's game.

After traveling to Carolina, the Bills play host to Houston. Then they have their bye week. I don't know if there is an ideal bye week to have, but Week Nine has to be one that a number of players are looking forward to getting healthy for the second half of the schedule.

When you realize how many key people the Bills have lost due to injury, it is no wonder that the defense has had trouble stopping the run. If Posluszny, Whitner, Scott, and Williams are able to return this week, that will go a long way in helping to start lowering the sieve-like rushing defense.

The Keys to This Week's Game

Can the Bills stack their defense against the running game of Carolina and force Delhomme to put the ball up in the air? His 10 interceptions so far, combined with the Bills picking off six passes last week, should mean that the Bills have a chance to pad their interception total.

Is the Panthers pass defense really that good? Based on what we saw from Fitzpatrick, he is not afraid to throw it all over the field.

If he continues launching the ball, the receiving corps of Evans, Owens, Reed, Nelson and good receiving running backs in Lynch and Jackson, the Panthers pass defense will be tested.

Will the recent moves the Bills made continue to help their offense generate more points? Those moves specifically were:

1) Alex Van Pelt moving down from the offensive coordinator boxes up in the stands to be down on the sidelines to gain greater insight in to how the game was flowing. He also wanted to have stronger level of communication with his quarterback.

2) The Bills' decision to scrap the no-huddle offense and go strictly with the huddle offense. The number of penalties on the young Bills' lineman dropped noticeably, and the youthful Bills seemed to play very composed, even if the game was on the road, and against an AFC East rival opponent.

3) Dick Jauron's decision to bench an unproductive and seemingly unhappy Roscoe Parrish, who has failed to generate many highlight reel plays this year. He has generated more bloopers than highlights, so it would not be a surprise if Roscoe continues to see his name on the inactive list, or even gone from the team altogether.

Those were clear changes that happened since the embarrassment against the Browns. The one other factor we haven't addressed, and this one is just as important, is who starts at quarterback for the Bills?

If Trent Edwards' concussion prevents him from starting, that means that Ryan Fitzpatrick will have probably been granted the majority of snaps all week with the first team, and will be better prepared to step in and be productive. Fitzpatrick brings some intangibles to the table; his ability to scramble, his willingness to throw the ball to his wide receivers, and confidence in his ability to thread the needle and to air it out deep.

If Fitzpatrick can continue to find Owens and Evans, keep them engaged and happy, the Bills might have more weapons at their disposal than Carolina does. If Fitzgerald can lead the Bills to a win, and they knock off Houston the following week, that would be more than sufficient evidence leading to a full-blown quarterback controversy for Bills fans to debate during the Week Nine bye week.

Bills On the Rise

Rookie defensive back Jairus Byrd now ranks tied for third in the NFL with three interceptions. His selection in the second round was initially questioned, but he is proving his worth.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was thought of by many as an insurance policy. Hard to say how big or small a role he has over the course of the rest of the season. Edwards' injury will dictate how much time he sees in the near term, but there has been no hiding how highly Dick Jauron views Edwards, as his starting quarterback.

Jamon Meredith came on to start last week at tackle, and did a pretty respectable job from all accounts. To go from practice squad to starter in a short span means that the rookie had a sharp learning curve, but seems to have the physical tools and smarts to be a potential steal for the Bills.