Super Bowl 2018: Eagles vs. Patriots Favorite and Betting Odds from Las Vegas

The line keeps shrinking between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots ahead of the 2018 Super Bowl. 

Understandably, Tom Brady and the Patriots opened as big favorites despite running into a top defense in Minneapolis. Not only had Brady's side just overcome a stalwart defense trotted out by the Jacksonville Jaguars, there was a stigma surrounding the Eagles because the team had to swap out the injured Carson Wentz with Nick Foles. 

Yet here we are, with the line continuing to get smaller as the game approaches. Some of this is natural, as fans and even bettors love a good underdog story, if not the great payout that comes alongside it. 

Some of it, though, has the feel of simple logic as more time passes and those analyzing the matchup have more time to break it down. Here's where everything stands one week from kickoff. 

2018 Super Bowl

Date: Sunday, Feb. 4

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis

Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC

Odds: Patriots -4.5, Over/Under 48

"They put on their pads just like us," Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery said, according to ESPN.com's Tim McManus. "I don't care who it is—Tom Brady, it don't really matter who's the quarterback—it don't matter."

At the least, these Eagles are great at playing that underdog role. 

Not that they have a choice. Not only are they playing Brady and Bill Belichick, Foles isn't exactly an MVP contender like Wentz. Even so, he has yet to throw an interception over two playoff games and tossed a trio of scores in the 38-7 laugher over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC title game. 

Jeffery is a big part of the reason for the team's success. One of this past season's best free-agent adds has caught nine of the 10 balls thrown his way in the playoffs, tallying 146 yards and two touchdowns in the process. His offense has reinforcements in the form of a defense allowing just 18.4 points and 306.5 yards per game this year. 

Yet, is it enough against Brady? 

Brady, who by the way, is on the fast track to health, as NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reported: 

With a gash on his throwing hand and Rob Gronkowski mostly absent due to injury, Brady led the comeback win against the Jaguars late, posting a 26-of-38 mark for 290 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in the eventual 24-20 win. 

Speaking of Gronkowski, he's good to go as well, per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

Perhaps not enough attention goes to the New England defense, though. The miserable 42-point allowance in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the season opener feels like years ago. As expected of a Belichick-coached squad, the unit has done nothing short of improve. So much so, the unit hasn't allowed north of 20 points since Week 15 during a win on the road over the explosive Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The improved unit is taking the threat of Foles seriously in large part because he represents a bit of the unknown. 

"You've always got to study, you've always got to prepare well to be on top of a team," defensive lineman Trey Flowers said, according to Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. "You want to know them as best as you can. For us not being familiar with them, you definitely want to get on top of it, watch film as much as possible and do a good job preparing."

One can start to see why the needle might start to move in the Eagles' direction but likely won't fully favor them. This is the story of a coach and quarterback on best-of-all-time lists against a backup on a supremely talented team. 

One thing the Eagles can look to capitalize on is the lack of scoring the Patriots have done in the first quarter of each playoff game thus far. On paper, jumping out to a lead is great, yet as the Jaguars discovered, few leads are safe in a game against Brady. 

Which is the ultimate point here—Brady is Brady, and he took down an arguably better defense with a hurt hand and sans his best target. Those two things are improved heading into the Super Bowl, and while Foles can do more with the football than, say, Blake Bortles in large part thanks to superb coaching, the Patriots have more where it matters right now. 

Those who covet the underdog story and want to take the risk aren't making a huge mistake here on a matchup that could've been so much more if Wentz's knee had held up. But it's safe to stand in the corner pointing to Brady pulling more Super Bowl magic when it matters against an opponent far from 100 percent. 

Prediction: Patriots 28-20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.