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Which NFL Teams Are Ready to Make the Leap in 2018 After Failed 2017 Seasons?

Brad GagnonJan 23, 2018

Every year, several NFL teams come out of nowhere and make the jump to the contender's circle. And 2017 was no exception, with the Buffalo Bills (17 seasons), Los Angeles Rams (12), Jacksonville Jaguars (nine), Tennessee Titans (eight), Philadelphia Eagles (three) and New Orleans Saints (three) ending multiseason playoff droughts. 

Which teams are on the verge of coming-out parties in 2018?

We're not talking about the Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders or Dallas Cowboys, all of whom were already in contention in 2016 before hitting injury-related speed bumps in 2017. We're talking about teams that have some shiny new pieces in place and might be on the brink of fresh playoff runs. 

Here are seven to watch as we enter the 2018 offseason. 

Houston Texans

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The Houston Texans won just four games in 2017, but nobody expects that to be the case next season. That's because the team spent the majority of the year without its top players on both sides of the ball, with quarterback Deshaun Watson and defensive end J.J. Watt starting just six and five games, respectively. 

Watt, of course, is one of the most dominant players of this era. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year has the ability to make a good defense special, and his healthy presence alone is probably worth several victories. 

And before he tore his ACL at practice in early November, Watson was putting together one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history. At the time, the No. 12 overall pick out of Clemson was tied for the league lead with 19 touchdown passes and ranked fifth among qualified passers with a 103.0 rating. Only two quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) had more 20-yard completions

If Watt and Watson are both healthy, a Texans team that also contains Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins (coming off a 13-touchdown campaign), Pro Bowl pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and a pair of high-quality running backs (Lamar Miller and D'Onta Foreman) will be widely expected to compete for the AFC South crown in 2018.

San Francisco 49ers

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When quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo made his first start for the San Francisco 49ers on Dec. 3, the team had lost 24 of its previous 26 games. But with the former New England Patriot under center, San Francisco went 5-0 in the final month of the season. 

Three of those victories came by double-digit margins, and three came against playoff teams. 

If Garoppolo qualified, his completion percentage (67.4) would have ranked in the top five, while his passer rating (96.2) would have been in the top 10. He also had the league's fifth-highest passer rating on third down and its highest rating in the fourth quarter (minimum 30 attempts in both cases).

That alone gives a lot of hope to a 49ers team that could use more weaponry for its new franchise quarterback but already has several promising young players in place on defense. If San Francisco retains Garoppolo, who hits free agency this offseason, and if high-ceiling defenders Reuben Foster, DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas can continue to bloom, the team will likely make a run in 2018. 

Chicago Bears

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The Chicago Bears are entering the 2018 offseason looking a lot like the Rams did going into the 2017 offseason.

They're coming off a bad year in which a promising rookie quarterback struggled. They have a new head coach who was essentially brought in to guide said QB. And they have a decent supporting cast surrounding the signal-caller, including a defense that possesses a high-potential young top-10 pick. 

The quarterback, of course, is Mitchell Trubisky, who showed more promise as a rookie than L.A.'s Jared Goff in 2016. The No. 2 overall pick in 2017 had four wins, a 59.4 completion percentage and a 7-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 12 starts, while Goff had zero wins, a 54.6 completion percentage and a 5-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in seven starts.

The new coach is Matt Nagy, who surpassed all expectations in his first year as the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive coordinator by helping quarterback Alex Smith post the league's highest passer rating. Like Sean McVay, Nagy is a young coach who learned from the best. But he has a little more NFL experience than McVay, who is the youngest head coach in league history. 

That potential centerpiece defender is 2016 first-round pick Leonard Floyd, who might not be as accomplished as L.A. defensive tackle Aaron Donald and is coming off a major knee injury, but the Bears still ranked in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game in 2017. That's something the Rams haven't accomplished in either of the last two seasons. 

None of this means the Bears will do what the Rams did in 2017, but they're the most obvious candidates to end an extended playoff drought (they last made the playoffs in 2010).

Unlike the 2017 Rams, the 2018 Bears have a top-10 pick in the draft. They will also have money to spend and a few high-priority unrestricted free agents to look after. And let's not forget that Trubisky—already well-supported by strong young backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen—should benefit from the return of key offensive starters Cameron Meredith and Kyle Long. 

It all makes Chicago an intriguing worst-to-first candidate, even in the competitive NFC North. 

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Los Angeles Chargers

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The Los Angeles Chargers had no business missing the playoffs in 2017. They finished 9-7, falling short of the postseason after being on the wrong end of a multiteam tiebreaker, but two of those losses came because of last-moment botched field-goal attempts. Another came in overtime after undrafted rookie Austin Ekeler fumbled with L.A. leading in crunch time, and two more came in winnable games against eventual top playoff seeds New England and Philadelphia. 

Football Outsiders assigns teams "Pythagorean wins," which, as the site explains, "represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed." And it's no surprise that only eight teams fared better in that category than the Chargers, who earned 10.5 Pythagorean wins.

On paper, this team is as good as anyone in the AFC West. Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers was named to his seventh Pro Bowl after his highest-rated season since 2013. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is joining him after a monster 2017 campaign. Running back Melvin Gordon is coming off an 1,105-yard, eight-touchdown year. Elite pass-rushing duo Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram combined for 23 sacks. And the Casey Hayward-led secondary emerged as one of the best in football.

It's hard to find a soft spot, especially considering that Rivers was sacked on a league-low 3.0 percent of his dropbacks in 2017. That formerly maligned offensive line has become more asset than liability, and it should only get better with the return of second-round guard Forrest Lamp, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL. 

The Chargers also got little from rookie first-round receiver Mike Williams (11 receptions for 95 yards). If Lamp and Williams can put it together in 2018, a Los Angeles team with decent draft positioning and some money to spend could emerge as the squad to beat in a suddenly wide-open division. 

Miami Dolphins

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The Miami Dolphins lost eight of their last 10 games in 2017, but prior to that they'd won 13 of their previous 17 regular-season outings. They have it in them, especially with quarterback Ryan Tannehill's impending return. 

Much of that hot streak came with Tannehill under center. The 29-year-old missed the entire 2017 campaign and the final few weeks of the 2016 season due to knee issues, but he completed 71 percent of his passes and posted a 103.4 passer rating in his final five games before suffering that injury, leading the Dolphins to victory in four of them.

They should try to keep stud free-agent receiver Jarvis Landry around, and they just might continue to get solid production out of youngsters Kenyan Drake, 23, at running back and Xavien Howard, 24, at corner. The same goes for veteran defenders Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh and Reshad Jones. If that happens and they can hit on the No. 11 overall pick, Tannehill could give them a chance to get into the 2018 playoff picture.

Indianapolis Colts

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Once again we highlight a potential quarterback-centric leap.

Indianapolis Colts franchise signal-caller Andrew Luck hasn't played since 2016 due to a balky shoulder, and he wasn't himself that year or the previous season as a result. That's a shame, because there's evidence that a healthy Luck could be enough to get this team close to the Super Bowl. 

But his potential return to health isn't the only reason the Colts could make a leap following a trying 4-12 season. Indy holds the draft's No. 3 overall pick, and with free agency looming only the Browns and 49ers have more money to spend than the Colts, per Spotrac

That's a heck of a position to be in when you've already got a three-time Pro Bowler under center and an exciting new head coach in Josh McDaniels.

The Colts still have a lot of work to do on defense, but Luck has the support of some talented young players on both sides of the ball. Malik Hooker and Rashaan Melvin have given hope to the D, and Luck will return to an offense that at least provides him with an elite top receiver in T.Y. Hilton and a stalwart left tackle in Anthony Castonzo. 

Don't be surprised if they're a lot more competitive in 2018. 

Washington Redskins

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This prediction will change if the Washington Redskins fail or neglect to bring back impending free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins. If that happens, there'll be too many questions regarding that all-important position. 

But if Cousins does return, a Redskins team ravaged by injuries in 2017 will have a chance to rebound in the wide-open NFC East.

With the team's previously superb offensive line in shambles, Cousins' numbers took a dip last year. But he still ranked in the top 12 in completion percentage, touchdown rate, yards per attempt and passer rating. Those numbers came despite DeSean Jackson's and Pierre Garcon's departures, a letdown year from Terrelle Pryor and the losses (at various points) of Chris Thompson, Trent Williams, Shawn Lauvao, Spencer Long, Jordan Reed, Brandon Scherff and Pryor due to injury. 

Physical setbacks also gutted the defense, as it lost key cogs Trent Murphy, Jonathan Allen, DeAngelo Hall, Mason Foster, Su'a Cravens, Zach Brown and Montae Nicholson during the season. 

It's amazing the Redskins still finished 7-9, but that record is an indication they have the talent to contend if they can avoid the trainer's room. 

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