NCAA Tournament 2018: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Midseason
The Big Ten figures to be at the heart of the bubble conversation for most of the season, so it's no surprise that Ohio State is one of the teams whose stock for making the 2018 men's NCAA tournament is soaring while Minnesota's stock is plummeting.
Actually ranking bubble teams for a projected bracket is a significant challenge in the first half of January. There's so little separating these resumes, and they change drastically on a nightly basis.
But it's not that hard to get a grasp on which teams have either helped or hurt their tournament case the most in recent weeks.
Teams considered for this list are those that appear in at least six projected brackets in the Jan. 8 update of the Bracket Matrix but are ranked no higher than a No. 7 seed. We can argue about the appropriate size of the official bubble at this point in the season, but those are the 32 teams in the pool of candidates.
From there, we looked at how those teams have fared in the two-and-a-half weeks since Dec. 25. Some are red-hot. Others are ice-cold. But most are just kind of lukewarm and haven't much moved the needle during that time—or they moved it both up and down so much that the net result was a wash.
We're only interested in the hot ones and cold ones.
Teams are listed in no particular order, other than an oscillation between Stock Up and Stock Down.
Records and results are current through the start of play on Jan. 12. Statistics are current through the start of play on Jan. 11.
Stock Down: SMU Mustangs
1 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 56-51 vs. UCF
W 79-39 vs. South Florida
L 70-73 at Tulane
L 56-76 at Cincinnati
L 64-66 vs. Temple
Resume: 12-6 (2-3 in AAC), RPI: 91, KenPom.com: 36, strength of schedule: 95
At the end of the 2017 portion of the season, it felt like SMU was a serious threat to Cincinnati and Wichita State for American Athletic Conference supremacy. The Mustangs were 12-3 with a neutral-court win over Arizona and blowout wins at home against USC and Boise State. At worst, they were going to be the third-best team in their conference and a surefire NCAA tournament team.
But, evidently, SMU had an expiration date of Jan. 1, 2018, because this team has been a mess lately.
First, the Mustangs blew a late lead at Tulane. This might be the best version of the Green Wave in at least a decade, but that's still a disappointing loss. In a vacuum, it wouldn't be that bad, though. It was SMU's second road game of the season and its first in conference play. We've seen better teams lose to worse opponents in those situations in the past two weeks.
The problem is that it has become the starting point of a three-game skid that will most likely extend to four games after the Mustangs play at Wichita State on Wednesday. SMU also got smashed by Cincinnati and suffered a bad home loss against Temple.
Shake Milton and Jarrey Foster have been solid throughout this cold spell, but just about everyone else has vanished. What was once a strong seven-man rotation has devolved into a two-man show, and the Mustangs will continue to struggle until they remedy that.
Stock Up: Ohio State Buckeyes
2 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 72-59 vs. Miami (Ohio)
W 92-81 at Iowa
W 80-64 vs. Michigan State
W 91-69 vs. Maryland
Resume: 14-4 (5-0 in Big Ten), RPI: 26, KP: 32, SOS: 16
It wasn't all that long ago that the Big Ten felt like Michigan State, Purdue and a bevy of bubbly bewilderment. Trying to identify the league's third-best team—let alone rank Nos. 3-10—was a near-impossible task.
Now that the wheat is beginning to separate from the chaff, it's clear that Ohio State is the former. If anything, the Buckeyes seem more likely to win the Big Ten than miss the NCAA tournament.
Evidently, the folks in charge of the midseason Wooden Watch need to be made aware of what's going on in Columbus. They failed to include Keita Bates-Diop in Thursday's top 25, despite the fact that he leads the Big Ten in scoring and leads the nation in KenPom.com game MVPs. Bates-Diop has scored at least 16 points in 12 consecutive games, including a career-high 32 (and great defense) in the big win over Michigan State.
It's more than just KBD, though. C.J. Jackson is averaging 13.9 points and 4.4 assists over his last nine games while shooting 50 percent from three-point range. Kam Williams has also been shooting well since the beginning of December. And Kaleb Wesson is having one hell of a freshman season, starting at center and shooting 75 percent from the free-throw line for this surging club.
And we haven't even mentioned senior leader Jae'Sean Tate, who was basically the only guy keeping this team from completely imploding last season. He has been a key source of just about everything, and he could be better.
It's still way too early in the year to start seriously debating things like who will win the national coach of the year honors. At this point, though, it's probably a two-horse race between Ohio State's Chris Holtmann and Arizona State's Bobby Hurley. Even if Ohio State tapers off over the next two months, it's remarkable what Holtmann has done with a roster that he inherited in June.
Stock Down: Minnesota Golden Gophers
3 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 65-55 vs. Harvard
W 77-67 vs. Illinois
L 71-75 vs. Indiana
L 60-83 at Northwestern
Resume: 13-5 (2-3 in Big Ten), RPI: 78, KP: 56, SOS: 115
It's obvious why Minnesota is struggling. Shot-blocking phenom Reggie Lynch has been suspended for the past two games amid multiple allegations of sexual assault. Meanwhile, third-leading scorer and all-around glue guy Amir Coffey has also missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury.
After losing sixth man Eric Curry to a season-ending knee injury during the summer, the Golden Gophers were already a bit short-handed. Needing to play two conference games without two starters was never likely to end well.
But it's not like those guys are coming back tomorrow. There are rumblings on message boards that Coffey will be out until at least early February, and the Lynch situation just gets messier by the day. It's hard to say whether either one will play again this season, in which case losing at home to Indiana and getting blown out at Northwestern is about to become Minnesota's new normal.
Let's be honest, though: Even at full strength, Minnesota wasn't looking great.
One of its two best wins of the season came on a neutral court against Alabama in a game where the Crimson Tide had to play the final 11 minutes with just three guys—and still almost beat the Gophers. And the other was a road win over Providence from two months ago, which doesn't look anywhere near as valuable as it did at the time.
The Golden Gophers were a No. 10 seed in my Jan. 2 projected bracket. After their two most recent losses, they shouldn't even be considered for the projected field today.
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Stock Up: Marquette Golden Eagles
4 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
L 87-91 vs. Xavier
W 74-65 vs. Georgetown
W 95-90 at Providence
L 90-100 at Villanova
W 84-64 vs. Seton Hall
Resume: 12-5 (3-2 in Big East), RPI: 33, KP: 39, SOS: 11
It's not often that a team with two losses in its last five games can be considered one of the top teams trending in the right direction, but that shoe fits on Marquette.
There's not a darn thing wrong with either of the losses. Had the Golden Eagles been able to hang on for a home win over Xavier, that would've been great. But if you're looking at Marquette averaging 88.5 points per game in losses to a pair of Top 10 teams and coming away concerned about this team, you're doing it wrong.
Meanwhile, Markus Howard and Co. picked up a nice road win over Providence and made a huge statement in a 20-point beatdown of Seton Hall.
Generally speaking, Marquette has played well above expectations—particularly the expectations that were amended when Haanif Cheatham suddenly left the program after five games. The Golden Eagles were 3-2 at the time and needed overtime to win at home against Eastern Illinois in their first game without Cheatham. It wasn't hard to imagine the season completely going up in smoke, given the lack of depth on the roster.
But Howard, Andrew Rowsey and Sam Hauser have been outstanding, averaging a combined 10.4 three-pointers per game, each shooting better than 40 percent from distance and shooting a combined 93.4 percent from the free-throw line. No one else on the team is averaging so much as 6.0 points per game, yet Marquette is putting up nearly 84 points a night because of that trio.
Marquette's defense is shaky, at best, especially in the paint, so we'll see what happens if and when one or more of those shooters come back to earth. Until then, enjoy the ride and try not to think about how painful it's going to be to pick any NCAA tournament game involving the Golden Eagles.
Stock Down: Baylor Bears
5 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
L 53-77 at Texas Tech
L 78-81 vs. TCU
W 69-60 vs. Texas
L 54-57 at West Virginia
Resume: 11-5 (1-3 in Big 12), RPI: 89, KP: 34, SOS: 94
At this point, I don't understand how anyone can make the case for Baylor to even be in the bubble conversation, let alone in the projected field. That isn't to say it's impossible for the Bears to play their way back into the picture, but their current resume is unflattering, to say the least.
Not one of Baylor's losses is bad. In fact, all five came against teams that entered play Thursday in the RPI top 20—three of them in true road games. But when you have only played seven games against the RPI top 125 and instead spent the bulk of nonconference play winning home games against dreadful competition, you can't just keep taking on "good losses."
At some point, Baylor is going to have to start beating these quality opponents, considering it still has nine regular-season games scheduled against RPI top 50 teams.
The Bears have the pieces to do it, but they haven't been able to put them together.
In the loss to TCU, they dominated the offensive glass, but they shot 1-of-12 from three-point range. They held West Virginia to 25 percent on two-point attempts, but they committed 21 turnovers and never got into anything resembling an offensive rhythm. And, well, it's hard to find anything encouraging to say about the blowout loss to Texas Tech, but things do sometimes spiral out of control on the road against Final Four contenders, especially when it's your first game against a remotely respectable opponent in nearly four weeks.
Whatever it takes to right the ship, the Bears better figure it out in a hurry. In the next two weeks, they play at Iowa State and at home against Oklahoma State and Kansas State. To finish with a .500 record in this league—which is the bare minimum for what Baylor needs, given its nonconference resume—those are three games that must be won.
Stock Up: The 4 Primary Mid-Majors
6 of 9
Gonzaga: W 81-48 vs. Pacific; W 101-52 vs. Santa Clara; W 89-59 at Pepperdine; W 85-66 at Loyola Marymount; W 103-57 vs. Portland
Nevada: W 80-65 at Fresno State; W 77-74 vs. New Mexico; W 92-83 vs. Wyoming; W 86-75 at Air Force
Rhode Island: W 80-60 vs. Florida Gulf Coast; W 83-64 vs. George Mason; W 74-62 vs. La Salle; W 81-60 at George Washington; W 72-65 at Saint Louis
Saint Mary's: W 87-59 vs. Loyola Marymount; W 74-64 at BYU; W 74-56 vs. Pacific; W 70-63 vs. San Diego; W at Santa Clara
Most people would say Gonzaga isn't actually on the bubble. The Bulldogs were a projected No. 6 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix update and rank No. 7 on KenPom. Counterpoint: They are 57th in RPI and 173rd in strength of schedule; neither of those numbers figures to get much better in WCC play. They do have four quality wins, but it would only take one loss to a conference foe besides Saint Mary's for people to start seriously doubting this resume.
Regardless, the Zags are one of the four mid-major teams with a strong case for an at-large bid, each of which has gone at least 19 days since its last loss. That's certainly a good start, but there's a lot of tightrope-walking yet to be done.
Of the bunch, Nevada is probably in the best shape right now, but it also has the toughest road ahead. After a few seasons of futility, the Mountain West Conference is much tougher this year. With six remaining games against Boise State, San Diego State and UNLV—as well as a tough road game against Wyoming—it's only going to be a matter of time before Nevada takes its first MWC loss. Keeping that number to three or fewer will be the key.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Saint Mary's is in the worst shape, but it has the most favorable schedule. The Gaels already won at BYU, so they should win every remaining game, save for the two against Gonzaga. Should they win the home game against the Zags, they'll be looking great. But even if they lose their two remaining games against Gonzaga—three if we count the WCC title game—the Gaels might sneak in.
But the moral of the story is: So far, so good.
In theory, the only team that would even need to be considered for an at-large bid is the loser of the WCC championship game. Still, it's important to consider what would happen if Rhode Island or Nevada were to slip up in their conference tournaments and need to be ranked among the at-large teams.
Stock Down: St. Bonaventure Bonnies
7 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 98-78 vs. Massachusetts
L 72-82 at Dayton
L 78-85 at Saint Joseph's
W 77-61 vs. Fordham
Resume: 12-4 (2-2 in A-10), RPI: 46, KP: 60, SOS: 85
Entering conference play, things were looking swell for the Bonnies.
They were 10-2 overall with a road win over Syracuse, a neutral-court win over Maryland and a few other decent victories against Vermont, Buffalo and Canisius. They did have an ugly, season-opening home loss to Niagara, but their star player, Jaylen Adams, did not play in that game. All other things being equal, I have to believe the selection committee would be willing and able to discount that loss, if not disregard it altogether.
But in what is clearly going to be a down year for the Atlantic 10, St. Bonaventure needed to take care of its conference business to remain in position for an at-large bid—which it hasn't done.
In most seasons, road losses to Dayton and Saint Joseph's would not be problematic. However, both of those teams are ranked outside the KenPom top 125. Dayton isn't a bad RPI loss, but Saint Joseph's is flirting with dropping outside the RPI top 200.
If the season ended right now, St. Bonaventure would probably sneak in—though not as comfortably as it would have 10 days ago. The problem is that there are still a ton of landmines remaining.
The Bonnies play at Rhode Island on Saturday, followed by a potentially tough road game against Davidson. They also host Rhode Island in mid-February and play at VCU near the end of the shortest month on the calendar. They probably need to go 12-2 the rest of the way, and one of those two losses is likely to occur on Saturday.
Stock Up: Florida Gators
8 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 81-74 vs. Vanderbilt
W 83-66 at Texas A&M
W 77-75 at Missouri
W 71-54 vs. Mississippi State
Resume: 12-4 (4-0 in SEC), RPI: 34, KP: 23, SOS: 31
It has been quite the roller-coaster ride for Florida fans.
The Gators basically could not miss from three-point range for the first five-and-a-half games of the season, but they went ice-cold mid-game against Duke and struggled for the next three weeks, including a home loss to Loyola of Chicago and a blowout home loss to Florida State. The net result was a 6-4 start with two quality neutral-court wins (Gonzaga and Cincinnati), an awful loss and a lackluster resume.
Since then, they are 6-0 and have gotten back to shooting well. Thanks to a 17-of-28 performance against Texas A&M, the Gators are averaging 10.1 three-pointers during that winning streak, shooting 45.7 percent as a team in the four games since Christmas.
It has often been said that this team is reliant on its three-point shooting to a fault, but that's an oversimplification of what Florida does.
Sure, there are games where the Gators jack up 30-plus three-point attempts and live with the results, and it feels like if Egor Koulechov and Jalen Hudson aren't hot from distance, the entire team struggles. But they're actually 128th nationally in three-point rate and are more well-rounded on offense than people realize—which will only ring truer if and when John Egbunu returns to action.
The real key to Florida's turnaround isn't the resurgence from the perimeter, but rather defense and ball security.
The Gators have averaged just 8.0 turnovers committed in their last four games while blocking 6.3 shots and defending the paint without fouling. Keep that up and they won't necessarily die on nights when the long ball eludes them.
Stock Down: Arkansas Razorbacks
9 of 9
Games since Dec. 25:
W 95-68 vs. CS Bakersfield
W 95-93 vs. Tennessee
L 75-78 at Mississippi State
L 77-88 at Auburn
L 54-75 vs. LSU
Resume: 11-5 (1-3 in SEC), RPI: 25, KP: 38, SOS: 5
Calling all cars. Calling all cars. We have an all-points bulletin on the disappearance of the Arkansas Razorbacks offense. Last known whereabouts are Dec. 30 in Fayetteville, when Jaylen Barford, Daryl Macon and Co. were averaging 90.4 points per game. Also, a possible case of identity fraud, as something wearing Arkansas jerseys has averaged 68.7 points in its last three games.
For real, though: What has happened to this team?
Arkansas was averaging 76.7 possessions and typically scoring at will in its first 13 games, but suddenly, January hits and teams are holding the Razorbacks in check at an average tempo.
The road losses are no big surprise. Mississippi State and Auburn went a combined 24-2 in nonconference play, and Arkansas has had a well-documented aversion to winning on the road since Mike Anderson became the head coach in 2011.
Getting blown out at home by LSU, however, is a major red flag.
The Tigers are better than anyone was expecting, but they aren't "go on the road and hold Arkansas to 54 points" good. This was just a complete "laying an egg" performance from Arkansas. Coupled with the 91-65 loss to Houston earlier this year, we've reached the point where it's fair to start wondering if this team is actually good.
Arkansas does have two really nice wins against Oklahoma and Tennessee, but it's concerning that it's 1-3 in SEC play without having yet played Florida, Kentucky or Texas A&M. As previously mentioned with Baylor, there's plenty of time to rally with nine remaining games against RPI top 50 teams. The Hogs are simply trending quickly in the wrong direction at the moment.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
Stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.
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