NFL Playoff Picks 2018: Odds and Last-Minute Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Half of the Wild Card Round participants waited a long time for this moment.

The Los Angeles Chargers brandished an identical record to the Buffalo Bills and defeated them by 30 points in the regular season. Then again, the NFL's only actual New York state-based team hasn't played a postseason bout since Jan. 8, 2000, when they miraculously lost on what was probably an illegal forward pass. Let them have this.

They will face the Jacksonville Jaguars, who hadn't even compiled a winning season since 2007. The teal beer they are selling belongs in the Bad Place, but Jason Mendoza's optimism about Blake Bortles and Co. no longer seems so naive.

The Tennessee Titans, who beat the Bills and Jaguars en route to Super Bowl XXXIV, will snap a nine-year playoff drought. When they last earned a playoff ticket as an 8-8 squad in 2004, the Los Angeles Rams then played in St. Louis and boasted a different superstar running back in Marshall Faulk.

Will these teams reward fans who displayed the fictional Mendoza's unflinching loyalty through tumultuous times? Let's break down all four Wild Card Weekend matchups and provide their spreads, updated as of Friday evening, according to OddsShark.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

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While the Titans are a dubious wild-card representative with a minus-22 point differential, at least they have shown flashes of merit in victories over the Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens.

They also went 3-4 over the final seven games, scoring 129 points in the process. Marcus Mariota tossed six passing touchdowns to nine interceptions over that stretch, which ended in a bad Bortles performance saving them from an epic December collapse.

Entering the season with breakout buzz and countless tales of his red-zone dominance, Mariota threw 13 touchdowns and had a lower passer rating (79.3) than Jacoby Brissett and Jay Cutler's. Per ESPN.com's Cameron Wolfe, his teammates nevertheless remain confident in the 24-year-old quarterback's ability to lead them to victory.

"We hold him to high standards," Titans tackle Taylor Lewan said. "We've seen him exceed them before. He'll do it again."

Fans also watched the Kansas City Chiefs navigate exasperating ebbs and flows. They started 5-0 with an unstoppable offensive juggernaut before somehow forgetting about Kareem Hunt and falling to 6-6. They finished 10-6 after receiving 485 yards and five scores from the rookie running back through the four-game winning streak.

Nobody knows which Kansas City will show up Saturday, but the safer bet is on Hunt and quarterback Alex Smith finding enough holes in a mundane Tennessee defense to outscore a meandering offense at home.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Titans 16

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) at Los Angeles Rams

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Despite resting their starters for an inconsequential 34-13 Week 17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams accumulated an NFL-high 478 points and tied the Jaguars for third in point differential (plus-149). Taking a week off merely dipped their final Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders, from No. 1 to No. 2 behind the New Orleans Saints.

Yet no home favorite enters Wild Card Weekend on higher upset alert.

It's no knock on Los Angeles but rather an appreciation of the Atlanta Falcons. Even in a rocky NFC title defense, they mustered the No. 8-ranked offense and No. 9 defense. Only the Saints and Chargers yielded fewer sacks, an important strength when combating Aaron Donald.

According to Pro Football Focus, the star defensive tackle led the NFL in pressures despite sitting out the season's opening and closing contests:

The Falcons are dangerous enough to keep the game close, but they will need to unlock a next level of defensive dominance like last postseason to stymie a red-hot Todd Gurley. A Rams squad that more than doubled 2016's scoring tally shines in a captivating shootout.

Pick: Rams 28, Falcons 27

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9)

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"All we need is a defense, and an offense, and some rule changes," Jaguars enthusiast Mendoza opined on Thursday's ill-timed return of NBC's The Good Place (via Comicosity's John Ernenputsch).

They have got the defense. No team yielded fewer passing yards than their 169.9 per contest. They also ranked second in sacks (55), interceptions (21) and points relinquished per game (16.8).

The offense isn't too shabby, either. Behind the league's top-ranked rushing attack and improved quarterback play from Bortles—Blake, not Derek—Jacksonville accrued three more total yards than the Philadelphia Eagles to snatch the No. 6 spot.

Buffalo, meanwhile, finished No. 29 in offense and No. 26 in defense. Seven NFC teams who missed the playoffs—including the 5-11 Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—notched better point differentials than the Bills' minus-57 margin.

After spraining his ankle in Week 17, LeSean McCoy's status for Sunday remains undetermined. The star running back accounted for 32.8 percent of Buffalo's offense, so the team's bleak outlook takes a seismic hit if he sits or plays hurt.

The Bad Place will have plenty to celebrate after the Jaguars convincingly advance.

Pick: Jaguars 20, Bills 10

Carolina Panthers (+7) at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are favored to complete a three-win hat trick over the Carolina Panthers. Per Max Henson of the Panthers' official website, head coach Ron Rivera does not mind playing the underdog:

While New Orleans ended 2017 with an ugly loss to Tampa Bay, Carolina can't take much solace in its NFC South adversary's misfortune. A week after narrowly surviving the Buccaneers on a fumbled snap-turned-touchdown, it failed to secure the division title, losing 22-10 against Atlanta.

A newly balanced New Orleans offense enters Sunday's showdown ranked No. 5 in both passing and rushing. While Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram allowed Drew Brees to attempt his fewest passes-per-game average (33.5) since joining the Saints, the Panthers live and die with Cam Newton.

In five Panthers losses, their star quarterback averaged 5.67 yards per pass attempt with 11 interceptions and a 53.6 quarterback rating. The defense failed to stifle Brees during both regular-season meetings, and Carolina's one-dimensional offense feeds off Superman heroics from its singular star.

That's problematic against a Saints defense that ranked No. 5 in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the pass. Standout rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore will contain Devin Funchess, and a healthy Greg Olsen won't make enough of a difference. According to Pro Football Reference, the Saints limited tight ends to 60 catches for 679 yards this season.

Newton will guide Carolina to narrowly cover a generous seven-point spread, but a road upset is far less likely.

Pick: Saints 30, Panthers 24