NFL Playoff Picture Week 16: AFC, NFC Scenarios Ahead of Sunday's Games

Some atypical contenders are poised to join the usual suspects in the upcoming NFL playoffs.

Heading into Sunday's slate, the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have guaranteed some stability by both advancing into the fourth straight postseason. This time, however, they have unusual company in the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had gone nine seasons without a winning record.

The NFC has especially destructed the status quo. For the first time since 2008, Aaron Rodgers won't lead the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl pursuit. With the New York Giants instead competing for a top draft pick, it's possible only one of last year's playoff participants returns.

Every division could be clinched by the end of Week 16, leaving a mad dash for the final wild-card slots on New Year's Eve.

Here's a look at each conference's updated playoff picture before the season's penultimate Sunday slate.

AFC Standings 

1. New England Patriots (11-3) 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)

5. Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

6. Tennessee Titans (8-6)

In the Hunt:

7. Buffalo Bills (8-6)

8. Los Angeles Chargers (7-7)

9. Oakland Raiders (6-8)

10. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

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Last Christmas, the Baltimore Ravens squandered an opportunity to seize the AFC North from the Steelers. They did their part to secure a jollier holiday weekend this year by beating the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night.

The 23-16 win puts them in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot. Even if the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans also both improve to 9-6, the Ravens will lock down their newly earned No. 5 seed by beating the Cincinnati Bengals next Sunday. They would either face the AFC West or South champion in the opening round.

Baltimore could still be back if Cincinnati plays spoiler in Week 17. It would require two Tennessee losses, which is a fairly likely outcome. After consecutive losses to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers, the Titans wield a minus-23 point differential.

Their No. 20 defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) doesn't scream "playoff team," either. The same goes for the Bills, who rank one spot higher. Baltimore entered Week 16 with the AFC's best DVOA, so it's clear which of the trio most deserves a postseason ticket.

Most of the credit goes to stout defense and special teams, but Joe Flacco has rebounded from a sluggish start to total 1,063 passing yards—he previously averaged 170.5 per game—and 10 touchdowns (one rushing) in the last four games. An average offense would make Baltimore a threat to replicate its last Super Bowl run.

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Sunday presents a grand opportunity for the Los Angeles Chargers to recover from an ill-timed Week 15 meltdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. As the Titans play the Rams and the Bills travel to New England, Philip Rivers and Co. receive a much more manageable Week 16 adversary in the New York Jets.

Although the Jets aren't the pushover prognosticators expected entering 2017, they have still lost seven of their last nine games. With Josh McCown out for the season, Bryce Petty must combat the Chargers' No. 4 passing defense and swarming pass rush.

Let's say everything goes their way in Week 16. A Chargers win coinciding with Titans and Bills losses simply makes them a feasible long shot entering the final weekend. In addition to defeating the Oakland Raiders, they would need another Titans loss and wins from the Ravens and Bills.

The odds of every factor falling in their favor seem slim: the New York Times' Playoff Machine gives them a 13 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Yet when isolating every necessary outcome, it's much easier to picture the Chargers earning their first playoff berth in four years.

NFC Standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)

2. Minnesota Vikings (12-3)

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-4)

4. New Orleans Saints (10-4)

5. Carolina Panthers (10-4)

6. Atlanta Falcons (9-5)

In the Hunt:

7. Detroit Lions (8-6)

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

9. Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings have already clinched their respective divisions. The Rams will join them with one win or one Seattle Seahawks loss.

Thanks to the NFC South, plenty of uncertainty remains.

While the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons would currently all make the playoffs, each has an opportunity to arrive as the division champion. Adding to the intrigue, each of the final two weeks features a pivotal head-to-head showdown among the group.

As Carolina hopes to cement a playoff spot with a home win over the 4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints and Falcons will clash at the Superdome to see who locks down another postseason ticket. (The Saints would clinch if they tie.)

New Orleans then gets to play Tampa Bay, while Carolina and Atlanta battle in a Week 17 game that could get flexed to Sunday night. Atlanta must conquer both rivals to retain the division crown. The Saints hold  the head-to-head edge over the Panthers after winning both bouts.

All have a high probability of making the playoffs, but the New York Times gives New Orleans a 57 percent probability of maintaining its narrow division advantage. NumberFire's model likes them even more:

Despite losing to the Falcons two weeks ago, OddsShark lists the Saints as 5.5-point favorites to win Week 16's rematch at home, where they are 6-1 with the only loss coming against the Patriots. They also trail the Rams at No. 2 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, 14 spots above the league-average Falcons.

Per the New Orleans Advocate's Nick Underhill, Saints defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins is looking forward to paying back the Falcons for Week 14's 20-17 shortcoming.

"We wanted that game," he said. "For us to be able to get another chance at it on Christmas Eve at our place, it's big. And for what it's for, in the overall grand scheme of things, it's big. I think guys are ready for it."

It's not Sunday's only meaningful NFC matchup. The Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys will compete in a loser-leaves-town match. While the loser gets eliminated, the winning squad's fanbase will spend the ensuing days studying a dizzying array of scenarios necessary to sneak into the playoffs.

DallasCowboys.com's David Helman outlined the Cowboys' perilous path:

Seattle also needs two wins, one Lions loss and two Falcons losses to extend its playoff streak to six straight appearances. It could also, however, steal the NFC West with two victories and two Rams losses against the Titans and 49ers.

Fortunately for the Falcons, they have beaten the Seahawks, Cowboys and Lions this season. They would have a secure hold over a wild-card bid if not for a tough schedule paired with the Lions conversely closing 2017 with two highly winnable games against the Bengals and Rodgers-less Packers.