Orange Bowl Odds: Wisconsin vs. Miami Betting Pick, Analysis

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 20, 2017

Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook throws during the second half of the Big Ten championship NCAA college football game against Ohio State, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Wisconsin Badgers are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread over their last three bowl appearances. The Miami Hurricanes, on the other hand, are just 1-6 both SU and ATS over their last seven bowls. In a game that features a pair of pretty good defenses, Wisconsin meets Miami in the Orange Bowl on Saturday, December 30 on the Hurricanes' home field at Hard Rock Stadium.

College football point spread: The Badgers opened as 5.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.2-22.6 Badgers (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

The Badgers won their first 12 games this season, 10 by double digits, and they held 11 of their first 12 opponents to 17 points or less, six to 10 or less. But with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line, Wisconsin came up just a bit short in the Big Ten championship game, falling to Ohio State 27-21.

The Badgers fell down to the Buckeyes 21-7 in the second quarter, pulled to within three points at 24-21 in the fourth quarter and drove the ball inside Ohio State territory in the final moments, before succumbing.

Wisconsin actually held the ball for 34 minutes against the Buckeyes, but one Alex Hornibrook interception basically cost the Badgers three points and another ended the game.

On the season, Wisconsin outgained and outrushed every opponent except one, Ohio State.

Hornibrook tends to throw a bad interception every now and then, but with help from the Badgers running game and defense he's 19-3 SU and 15-6-1 ATS as a collegiate starter.

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

The Hurricanes won their first 10 games this season, six by double digits, holding six of their first 10 opponents under 20 points, earning their first berth in the ACC championship game. Miami then suffered a hiccup in a loss at Pittsburgh, then laid an egg in a 38-3 conference championship game defeat to College Football Playoff qualifier Clemson.

Nonetheless, the Hurricanes are bowling for the fifth straight year.

On the season Miami ranks third in the country in turnover margin at plus-15. The Hurricanes have also outrushed four of their last five opponents.

Smart pick

Wisconsin owns the better running game and an edge on defense. As long as the Badgers don't turn the ball over too often they should win this game and cover this spread.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in nine of Miami's last 10 games.

Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.