Are The Spartans For Real?

Michigan State in the race for the Big Ten title?

If you would've told me that 3 weeks ago, I would've laughed.  Sitting at 1-3, with a loss to a MAC school and their sole win over a not-so-good FCS Montana State, I think most had counted out Michigan State.

Fast forward to Monday, October 19th 2009 and the Spartans are 4-3, riding a 3 game winning-streak, and sitting pretty at 3-1 in the conference.

But, I am not quite ready to drink the green koolaid.

Michigan State is 3-1 in conference play, with their one loss coming from a nice Wisconsin squad also in the title hunt.  But what about their wins?

Their first Big Ten victory comes over Illinois.  Yes, it was on the road in Champaign, but the caveat is that Illinois is 1-5 right now with their sole victory coming over FCS foe Illinois State.  Their resume includes a loss to Indiana who had dropped 3 straight games coming in, including being blown out by Virginia.

Alright, Michigan State should have won.

This past weekend MSU faced perennial mediocre team Northwestern.  The Wildcats lost to Syracuse, barely held on against MAC doormat EMU, and only beat Miami (OH) by 10 points.  To put that in perspective, Miami (OH) is 0-7.  Right, the Wildcats beat them, but barely ... especially by Big Ten standards.

Michigan State should have won this.

Now, the only quality Big Ten win under Michigan State's belt is at home against Michigan in which the Spartans allowed 14 points in under 5 minutes, blowing their 14 point lead and being forced to win the game in overtime.  With the way Michigan played, State should have fared much better, and the game shouldn't have even come close to overtime.

Okay, so State has a good conference win.  But what does it all mean?

It means that statistically, State is (and should be) in the top tier of the conference, sitting pretty at 3-1 in conference play.  But what the starstruck Spartans may not have noticed is that their easy games are behind them, and the schedule is about to tighten up.

It starts against No. 6 Iowa in a night game in East Lansing, which should be quite the showdown.  If Michigan State can win, or at the very least stay in the game, then perhaps we might be on to something.  But if Iowa runs over Michigan State at East Lansing, then the discussion of State in the title race should diminish.  Easily their toughest game of the season, and if the Spartans pull off the upset, consider me on the bandwagon for Michigan State in the title race.

Then comes Minnesota and their fancy new stadium.  State will not be playing in the comfort of home, and Minnesota has Eric Decker.  Minnesota has lost only to Penn State and Wisconsin in conference play, and both appear to be conference powers.  Minnesota played No. 8 California quite well, and nearly squeaked by Wisconsin.  This game is not a cakewalk for Spartans.

Next, MSU hosts Western Michigan.  A walk in the park, right?  Wrong.  With one loss to a Mid-American Conference team this year, State cannot afford to take a breather for this game.  I don't expect a repeat of CMU this time, but I sure hope the Spartans are ready for battle.

Then comes conference cellar-dweller Purdue.  A two-week breather, yay!  Not quite.  Purdue just beat No. 7 Ohio State, effectively ending OSU's national title hunt and hindering their shot at a conference title.  Purdue has a great running back in Ralph Bolden, and to complicate matters for the Green and White, the game is in West Lafayette.

Finally, Michigan State hosts Penn State (who will probably be ranked).  Penn State laid the smackdown on State last year in a 49-18 rout.  While I don't expect a similar scenario this year, PSU will be no easy task for the Spartans.  This promises to be a great game.

So, Spartans, you sit at a crossroads.  Do you take the path of old and start losing the difficult games?  Or do you persevere, and win.  With the way Dantonio has his program starting to run, my instinct is to pick the latter.

The rest of the season for Spartans:

Scenario 1:  The worst-case, highly-unlikely scenario

A huge loss to Iowa is compounded by a return to East Lansing from Minnesota empy-handed.  A sense of urgency propels MSU past WMU, only to get ran over by Ralph Bolden at Ross Ade Stadium in West Lafayette.  Penn State, looking for a Rose Bowl berth, crushes Michigan State.

Spartans see their team end at 5-7 with no bowl game.

Scenario 2: A more likely case

A close loss to Iowa leaves the Spartans charged as they realize they can hang with the best in the conference.  After a strong start against Minnesota, the Spartans drop the road game in a heartbreaker, but proceed to devastate Western Michigan.  A strong showing in West Lafayette propels MSU against Purdue and they hang tight in a close loss to Penn State at home.

Spartans see their team end at 6-6, and a Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl bid.

Scenario 3:  The likeliest case

A close loss to Iowa leaves the Spartans charged as they realize they can hang with the best in the conference.  The energy spills over into Minnesota as the Spartans hang on for a victory.  A strong showing at home against a decent Western squad also translates into a road win at West Lafayette.  Penn State rolls into town and wins, but not convincingly.

Spartans see their team end at 7-5, and some sort of alright bowl bid.

Scenario 4:  The everything-goes-right and the Spartans-surprise case

I guess that night game was a charm for State, as State hands *Iowa its first defeat and sits in the driver's seat of the conference.  With no Ohio State to be played, MSU could remain there.  The Spartans confidently win over Minnesota on the road and blow past a Western squad who looked like they were still playing on Friday nights.  A strong showing at Purdue translates to a strong showing against *Penn State at home, and the Spartans ran the table.

Spartans see their team end at 9-3 or maybe 8-4*

*The asterisk just means that State either beats both Iowa and PSU or only Iowa and not PSU or only PSU and not Iowa

Where do we go from here?  Saturday will tell most of it.