7 Keys to Victory in Pittsburgh Steelers' MNF Matchup with Cincinnati Bengals
The Pittsburgh Steelers close out the Week 13 schedule with a Monday night visit to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Pittsburgh's AFC North rivals are 5-6 but are still in the mix for a playoff berth, while the Steelers are trying to keep pace with the New England Patriots to keep control of their No. 1 seed in the conference with just a handful of games left to play.
The Steelers-Bengals rivalry has become one of the most contentious in the NFL over the past few years, ensuring Monday's game will not lack for drama. But Pittsburgh can still come away with a victory, despite the high-running tensions.
Here are seven keys for the Steelers to do just that.
History Favors the Steelers
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The Steelers have had the Bengals' number in Cincinnati's home stadium for well over a decade.
Even in years in which the Bengals have been the overall better team and those when the Bengals have earn a road victory in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have somehow traveled well as far as Cincinnati is concerned.
Since 2004, when Ben Roethlisberger took over the Steelers' starting quarterback duties, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have met at Paul Brown Stadium 15 times including in the playoffs. And the visitors have come away with the win on 13 of those occasions.
Although there is something to be said for familiarity, Pittsburgh's continued dominance over the Bengals—particularly on the road—should underscore the entire narrative of this game.
Also a factor: The Bengals' performance in prime-time games while Andy Dalton has been their starting quarterback.
In 10 night games, including two meetings with the Steelers, Cincinnati has won only once. Geographically speaking, Pittsburgh already has a significant advantage over its opponents.
Stay the Course on Defense
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The Steelers' defense has been the team's most consistent strength over the course of the 2017 season. And sticking to what has worked would be their best defensive strategy against the Bengals on Monday night.
Cincinnati's offense ranks only 25th in points scored and 32nd in yards earned this year. While quarterback Andy Dalton has a respectable touchdown-to-interception ratio of 18-to-eight, he has been sacked 28 times this season, while the run game ranks only 31st in rushing yardage this season.
Thanks to an offensive line Football Outsiders has ranked near the bottom of the league in run-blocking and pass protection, Cincinnati's offense has not had much success moving the football.
At the same time, Pittsburgh's defense has been punishing teams who have subpar play out of their offensive lines, such as the Bengals. The Steelers rank fourth in both points and yards allowed this year, and they have amassed 38 sacks and ranks fifth in interceptions with 12.
Though the Bengals will try to throw new tricks and wrinkles into their offense, Pittsburgh need only to stay the course on defense in order to limit what has been an anemic Cincinnati offense this season.
When the two teams met in Week 7, Pittsburgh's defense sacked Dalton four times and picked him off twice; a repeat performance seems more than achievable in Week 13.
Focus on Running the Ball
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The Bengals defense has struggled on numerous occasions this season, most notably when trying to stop their opponents from running the ball.
And with the Steelers boasting the league's leading rusher in Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh should continue to exploit that weakness on Monday night.
When the Steelers and Bengals met in Week 7, Bell rushed 35 times for 134 yards. While he didn't reach the end zone, it was his contributions that led Pittsburgh to dominate in time of possession and helped set up Chris Boswell's five field goals that took the game from a 14-14 tie to a 29-14 victory.
Bell has historically averaged 89 rushing yards per game against the Bengals.
Meanwhile, the Bengals have not held an opponent to under 100 yards rushing since Week 5. The defense has given up 1,393 rushing yards total—ranking them 28th in the league—while allowing rushers to average four yards per carry.
Opponents have also gained 74 first downs via the run against Cincinnati's defense; in contrast, the Bengals' run game has earned only 48 first downs this year, while Bell has 56 to his name alone.
Therefore, it's easy to see why a Bell-centric offense should produce profound results for the Steelers on Monday night. Controlling the clock, wearing down Cincinnati's defense and moving the chains will all be byproducts of Bell seeing a workload of at least 30 carries.
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Antonio Brown's Injury
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After missing two straight days of practice with a toe injury, top Steelers wideout Antonio Brown is considered a game-time decision for the meeting with the Bengals.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Gerry Dulac noted on Saturday it's uncommon for a Steelers player to be active for a game after missing the final two practices before kickoff, however he also added Brown's importance to the offense may make him "an exception to this rule."
Even if the 29-year-old plays, it's hard to imagine he will be at 100 percent health and therefore less of a centerpiece than he's been over the previous 11 games.
Whether he's out or limited, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler noted Brown is most likely to cede playing time to rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, as well as veterans Darrius Heyward-Bey and Justin Hunter, while Martavis Bryant will continue to serve as the No. 2 wideout.
A limited Brown is, generally speaking, not a good development for the Steelers' offense. Of Ben Roethlisberger's 250 completions this year, 80 have gone to Brown, which have accounted for 1,195 of the quarterback's 2,948 passing yards and eight of his 20 touchdown passes thrown.
As far as Monday night is concerned, it's a storm the Steelers may be able to weather.
When the Steelers and Bengals met in Week 7, Brown was held to just four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. And historically, Cincinnati has done a good job holding him in check, with the wide receiver averaging 74.1 yards per game against them.
If Brown can simply take the field as a decoy and not as the primary focus of Roethlisberger's passes, he will still draw coverage while players such as Smith-Schuster, Le'Veon Bell, Bryant and others can get open and move the chains.
This gets more difficult without Brown on the field. That's one fewer receiving threat for Roethlisberger—and one of the league's best receivers the Bengals don't have to plan and prepare for.
However, Pittsburgh does have the personnel to mitigate Brown's injury, whether it limits his effectiveness or sidelines him completely for Week 13.
Steelers Red-Zone Offense
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Despite the Steelers surpassing the 30-points scored mark in their past two wins, their red-zone efficiency still has not improved significantly.
Pittsburgh is scoring touchdowns on only 46.51 percent of their average 3.9 red-zone appearances per game.
Although the last two weeks have served as silver linings to this dark cloud and though it helps that their touchdown scoring percentage rises to 55 percent on the road, Cincinnati's red-zone defense will be a major challenge to their ability to score on Monday night.
Pittsburgh's offense ranks in the top 10 in yards earned but just 13th in points scored. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's defense ranks 10th in points allowed, primarily because of its ability to tighten when their opponents are in scoring position.
The Bengals are giving up touchdowns on just 39.47 percent of their opponents' red-zone appearances—the best such mark in the league—and that shrinks to only 26.67 percent when they are the home team.
With their opponents reaching the red zone an average of 3.5 times per game, that ability to keep red zone from turning into the end zone has been a hallmark of the team this season and easily Cincinnati's biggest strength.
Pittsburgh's predilection to shrink when in scoring position could haunt them this week. The last time these two teams met, they did manage two touchdowns. While the Steelers ultimately won, only one of those scores came in the red zone; their other five trips resulted in field goals.
The Steelers cannot assume they will be so lucky again on Monday. Creativity when in scoring position will be a requirement, particularly with a hobbled Brown potentially inactive.
Steelers' Red-Zone Defense
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With the Steelers' defense ranking fourth in both points and yards allowed, opposing offenses are rarely finding themselves in scoring position.
In fact, Pittsburgh's opponents are averaging a third-ranked 2.2 red-zone appearances per game this season. When offenses have gotten within the 20-yard line, though, Pittsburgh's defense has been just as effective as Cincinnati's.
Pair that with a Bengals' offense that hasn't made much of their red-zone opportunities this year and the Steelers' woes are less magnified.
On the season, the Steelers are allowing touchdowns on just 50 percent of their opponents' red-zone appearances, which improves to only 35.29 percent when on the road.
In contrast, the Bengals offense is scoring touchdowns on 53.33 percent of their red-zone appearances but that dips to just 27.78 percent when at home. Their scoring opportunities also shrink at home, from 2.7 red-zone appearances on average to two per game at Paul Brown Stadium.
Both the Steelers and Bengals boast immovable-object defenses when in the red zone. The only difference is Pittsburgh allows fewer trips there to their opponents than its offense has averaged this year.
Therefore, the Steelers have to worry far less about their own red-zone offense as long as the red-zone defense performs as it has all season.
Don't Be Overconfident
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Though it's only Week 13, the future appears to be on the Steelers' minds. And that could be a major problem on Monday night. The Steelers need to take care that they don't focus so much on the games which follow their meeting with the Bengals that they overlook Cincinnati all the way to a loss.
The Steelers are 9-2 heading into Monday night and are the top seed in the AFC. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 5-6 and clinging to the chance to reach the playoffs as a wild-card team.
Not only does that give the Bengals a lot more to fight for, it also means the Steelers need to avoid distractions. Yet, it appears that Week 15—when the Steelers host the New England Patriots—is the only game circled in red on their upcoming schedule.
Last week, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin told ESPN's Tony Dungy the Patriots contest will "be fireworks" and added he anticipates it will be the first of two meetings between the two much as it was last year when Pittsburgh and New England met in both the regular season and in the AFC Championship game. Steelers safety Mike Mitchell also has the Patriots on his mind, saying that while he's "going to prepare" for the Bengals, he, too, is thinking ahead.
While it's understandable—the Steelers fell both times to the Patriots last year and have since focused their attention to making the dynasty their newest, biggest rivals—it also means Pittsburgh and its coaches are somewhat distracted about what's to come in two weeks.
Between then and now, though, are two key AFC North battles, first against the Bengals and next Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens.
Neither the Ravens nor the Bengals are the quality of opponent they used to be, but both are on the verge of reaching the postseason, boast two-game win streaks and are aware they can spoil the Steelers' hopes of playoff home-field advantage as well as a first-round bye. The Bengals need to be the only team on the Steelers' minds come Monday; Week 15 cannot be won in Week 13.
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