2018 World Cup Power Rankings After Draw
The 2018 FIFA World Cup draw has been completed! All 32 teams know the fate that awaits in Russia come June, with the eight groups of four that begin the first phase of the tournament decided.
With this formality in place, it's time to take another look at the sides competing and ask: Who is going to win? We posed the same question once the 32 participants were confirmed in November, but what does the group draw change? Whose chances have been enhanced by the events of Friday, and who's been thrown a rotten bone?
Here, we rank each team in order of their likelihood of lifting that golden trophy come July 15.
TOP NEWS
Madrid Fines Players $590K 😲
'Mbappé Out' Petition Gaining Steam 😳
Star-Studded World Cup Ad 🤩
32. Tunisia (-1)
Tunisia are a tough side to gauge, as the African qualifying section—so often a gauntlet—handed them a very kind draw of DR Congo, Libya and Guinea. It’s no real surprise they finished unbeaten.
The group stage draw was significantly less kind. Belgium and England carry question marks regarding their performances at finals but they're overwhelmingly stronger than The Eagles of Carthage, and playing Panama will be a grind.
31. Panama (-1)
Panama are one of the least-fancied teams to make an impact at this World Cup, though it’s not as if there isn’t recent precedent for a “lesser” CONCACAF side to make a splash—see: Costa Rica, 2014.
That said, while there’s a chance Panama can make a similar shock run, you won’t find many betting on it happening given the group they've landed in.
30. Australia (+2)
We ranked Australia bottom in our November edition, with their struggle to clamber out of the AFC qualifying zone a concern, and their unconvincing win over Syria in the play-offs a downright worry.
The draw changes things just a tad. From pot four you can only hope for so much, but they bagged arguably the worst team from pot two, and will hope to frustrate Denmark into a share of the spoils.
29. South Korea (-2)
That's a bad, bad draw for South Korea.
Germany and Mexico have the kind of attacking talent that could take the wheels off Shin Tae-Yong's defence, and Sweden are an incredibly solid side who might well opt to sit in and stifle, force side-to-side passing, and give Son Heung-Min no room to work in.
28. Iran (-2)
Iran have one way of playing, and it makes life incredibly difficult for opponents. We saw that at the 2014 World Cup, and with the same manager and several of the same players still in the setup—including rock-like centre-back Jalal Hosseini—we're set to see it again.
Unfortunately for them, they've landed in a group with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Isco and David Silva—players who are exactly the type you would want when coming up against low-blocks; exactly the type who break walls down.
It won't deter or shake Team Melli's belief, but they're up against it here.
27. Morocco (+1)
Morocco are a team that may well fly under the radar a little ahead of the tournament. They’re a very stubborn, well-organised outfit—evidenced by the zero goals conceded during qualifying.
This defensive mantra, coached by Herve Renard, will be tested to the extreme against Portugal and Spain. No one will expected them to emerge from Group B, but they do move up a spot as Iran and South Korea fared even worse on Friday.
26. Saudi Arabia (+2)
Saudi Arabia’s hopes of success look rather slim. Being in pot four puts you at the mercy of the draw, and it’s perhaps a marker of their quality that they’re ranked 63rd by FIFA coming into the process—the second-lowest of all participating teams (Russia are 65th).
Interestingly, they were grouped with Russia, and also drew Uruguay and Egypt, forming a collection of low-ranked sides. Consider Group A prime real estate for potential upsets.
25. Iceland (-8)
Iceland are by far the biggest movers in this edition of the rankings, dropping a whopping eight spots.
Why? Because the draw was always going to go one of two ways for Gylfi Sigurdsson and Co.: Either they're blessed with teams they can expect to hold out against and hit on the break, or cursed with creative sides who can unpick their stoic defence.
Argentina and Croatia are far more the latter than the former.
24. Switzerland (Stay)
The battle for second (behind Brazil) in Group E will be very interesting, and it's incredibly difficult to forecast at this stage.
Switzerland, Costa Rica and Serbia all feel as if they're similarly levelled in strength, so it could well come down to who has the cutting edge. In that scenario, don't count on the Swiss—they lack a genuine, consistent goalscoring threat and could well fall by the wayside as a result.
23. Japan (+2)
Good luck predicting what happens in Group H. Four different continents collide, presenting four teams who have just as many (if not more) questions than answers.
This reasonably level playing field boosts Japan's stock a little and sees them move up two. Measuring on-paper strength they're not among the strongest two, but you can't comfortably rule them out of contention either.
22. Sweden (Stay)
Germany, Mexico, South Korea. It's not the nicest group for Sweden to contend with, is it?
They'll be rated third-strongest of this collection at best, but that might work in their favour. If they're able to sit in, absorb pressure and attempt to nick a goal—just as they did against Italy in the playoffs—then second place isn't out of the question.
21. Peru (Stay)
Peru were the pot two side everyone would have been hoping for, so it's up to them to prove people wrong at the finals next summer.
In truth, they've been given an opportunity to do exactly that. They feel weaker than Denmark but not by too much, and Australia are one of the three worst teams heading to Russia.
20. Nigeria (-2)
For the second consecutive World Cup, Nigeria drew Argentina and Lionel Messi in the group stage. That's tough luck.
Adding to the disappointment is the fact they also fell in alongside Croatia, a team who look somewhat rejuvenated, and who can likely outgun a young Super Eagles team if tasked with it.
The events of Friday surely clip their wings a little.
19. Senegal (+4)
In a pre-draw piece, we featured Senegal in plenty of "worst-case scenarios" for the top sides. They have the attacking weaponry to hurt you; if Sadio Mane and Balde Keita hit form in Russia, there's an argument that the Lions of Teranga can be the dark horse of the tournament.
Given the draw, Aliou Cisse will need those front men bang in form. They can clamber out of this group, but only if they rise to a quite formidable challenge.
18. Costa Rica (+1)
How good are Costa Rica? It's difficult to answer that question with confidence, as they flit from good to great to poor a little too quickly to really take stock of them.
Still, few will be underestimating Los Ticos on the world stage in next summer—not after what they pulled in 2014—and as a pot three team, they'll be delighted with how the draw panned out.
17. Egypt (+3)
Egypt will be many people's pick for surprise package next summer, and the group stage draw only strengthens that choice.
A Uruguay side seemingly in transition, plus the two lowest-ranked sides in the entire competition? Mohamed Salah and Co. will be licking their lips.
16. Serbia (Stay)
They'll be hard-pressed to find a way past Brazil, but when facing Switzerland and Costa Rica, Serbia might just feel they can edge their way through those contests.
Make no mistake about it, the fight for second in Group E could well be attritional and physical; who better suits that scenario than Branislav Ivanovic and Nemanja Matic?
15. Russia (Stay)
The combination of a fairly open draw plus the fact they boast home advantage sees Russia retain a healthy spot in the rankings.
They're not as bad as people think—manager Stanislav Cherchesov has made big strides in a short space of time—and their paltry FIFA world ranking can be attributed at least partially to the fact they can only play friendlies while everyone else is qualifying.
14. Denmark (Stay)
Due to the mechanics of the draw, there was no scenario in which Denmark could come out looking a sure-fire bet to qualify, but they've undoubtedly landed in a good spot all things considered.
France are likely a bridge too far, but Peru and Australia? Those are two sides who will be fearing what Christian Eriksen can do.
13. Mexico (Stay)
Mexico felt like a case where, no matter the draw, their odds of progressing and making a splash remained around the same. Grouped with stronger teams? No problem, they’d go toe-to-toe; grouped with a weaker selection? They’d hammer one.
They’ll be one of the more exciting, attacking teams to watch next summer, and they’ve been drawn opponents who will beckon them forward to see if they can break them down. It should be fun.
12. Colombia (-2)
There's scope for Colombia to move back into the top 10 as we move closer to the tournament, but for now, the issues facing Jose Pekerman—combined with a "who knows?" group draw—pushes them down a little.
At their best, they can match Poland and beat them; at their worst, they'll lose to Senegal and struggle against Japan. Which version of Los Cafeteros will show their faces?
11. Croatia (+1)
Croatia may have struggled through qualifying, but that's in the past now. The manager culpable has been sacked, and against Greece they showed how powerful from an attacking perspective they can be.
The group stage draw will give them a chance to continue in this vein, as Argentina are attackable, Iceland will likely wilt, and Nigeria can't compete with the quality or experience The Vatreni offer.
10. Poland (+1)
The draw was kind to Poland, and they've set themselves up with a genuine chance of a best showing at a World Cup finals since 1982.
They avoided the pot two short straws in Spain, Uruguay, Croatia and Mexico, instead landing Colombia. It's not a guaranteed win, but they have flaws The Eagles can take advantage of.
Pots three and four threw up Senegal and Japan—again, no pushovers in sight—but two teams you'd bet on Robert Lewandowski dispatching.
9. England (Stay)
The group draw should leave England feeling confident of advancing to the knockout stages.
They needed to avoid a genuine powerhouse like Germany or Brazil to feel comfortable, and in Belgium they’ve managed that. Sure, Roberto Martinez has some incredible players at his command, but the system he instructs is fragile and the team he manages imperfect.
Tunisia and Panama are nowhere close to The Three Lions on paper, and while they will put up a fight, few will expect them to cause an upset.
8. Portugal (-2)
One top team was always going to draw the pot two short straw in the form of Spain, and right now Portugal will be cursing the fact it was them.
It weakens their status as a contender considerably. Pot one teams (bar Russia) should expect to win their group, but with La Furia Roja grouped in with them, that's no longer reasonable.
Finishing second is a stark possibility, and from there a whole world of uncertainties opens up. The winner of Group A (likely Uruguay) would await, rather than perhaps Egypt, and the quarter-final stage would probably deliver France.
7. Belgium (+1)
Belgium boast immense individual talents, they just need to pull together and work as a team. That was true at the 2014 World Cup, even truer at Euro 2016, and at its truest ahead of next summer's finals.
Qualifying showed they can beat defensive teams—they usually find a way to break them down, thanks to Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne—so this draw looks pretty favourable for them.
Panama and Tunisia will be hard-pressed to come away from anything against The Red Devils, and most would back Belgium to best England in the battle of the dysfunctionals, securing top spot in Group G.
6. Uruguay (+1)
One lucky pot two side was set to draw Russia, and that turned out to be Uruguay. They'll head to the World Cup as the strongest team in Group A and the favourites to win it.
How far they can advance depends on several things—chiefly the form of Luis Suarez, whether or not Portugal win Group B and how quickly this transitioning side can grasp the mantle—but of all paths, La Celeste's looks one of the clearest.
5. Argentina (Stay)
When it comes to genuine World Cup contenders, it's clear there's a top five, and despite qualifying difficulties Argentina are most certainly one of them.
They landed in Group D along with Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria, and it's really only the former who will present Jorge Sampaoli's men a serious threat.
The Super Eagles recently beat La Albiceleste in a friendly, but the truth is it was exactly that—a friendly. Expect Lionel Messi to sweep the African outfit aside when the tournament proper begins.
4. France (Stay)
It's never a question of talent when it comes to France. The star-studded nature of their squad tells its own glamorous story, and the calibre of players that will be left at home reinforces the point.
Instead it's mentality, or perhaps complacency. What Les Bleus needed was a difficult group, one that would force them into gear early and put their minds to the test, but that's not really what they got.
Denmark pose an obvious threat, but really they, Peru and Australia represent baby food to a French XI firing on all cylinders. The question is whether they will be or not.
3. Spain (Stay)
It's not often a side from pot two end up as the strongest in the group, but that's arguably the case in Group B. Portugal might publicly welcome a renewal of Iberian rivalries, but privately they'll be pretty annoyed.
The other two group-mates—Morocco and Iran—are cut from the same defensive, stubborn cloth, and their resilience will be put to the ultimate test when meeting La Furia Roja pitch-side.
2. Brazil (Stay)
Ahead of the draw, Neymar asserted that Brazil are "not afraid of anyone," per FIFA.com, and while that might technically be true, they'll have been happy to avoid Spain.
In fact, the draw played out very nicely for the Selecao. They may have drawn arguably the toughest pot four side in Serbia but they're still several levels above them, while Costa Rica and Switzerland lack both the sturdiness or the firepower to really trouble them.
Tite will be expecting a return of nine points and top spot in Group E. All this does is re-assert Brazil's status as a serious World Cup contender.
1. Germany (Stay)
The only possible group draw that could have knocked Germany off top spot involved being paired with Spain from pot two, but they’ve avoided that. Instead, they’ve been handed a selection of Mexico, Sweden and South Korea—three teams they are clearly superior to and will be expected to if not beat, then traumatise.
Provided Brazil top Group E, Die Mannschaft will land a fairly soft Round of 16 game, and could well end up avoiding one of the true heavyweights until the semi-final stage. Joachim Low will be happy with that.
With no obvious initial obstacle in sight, Germany remain the overall favourites to lift the trophy on July 15.
All statistics via FIFA.com —
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
