NFL: Packers-Lions Preview

Green Bay will be visited by the Lions Sunday at 10 a.m. PDT. On the surface, this appears to be an easy victory for the Packers for many reasons:

1. The Lions' last trip to Lambeau was their record-setting 16th loss, ensuring they would become the league's worst-ever team on record.
2. Green Bay is 15-2 in the last 17 meetings between the teams, and has not lost a home game since 1991.
3. Green Bay is coming off a bye week, giving them a huge advantage. (Why does the league match teams that have not had a bye with ones that have?)
4. The Packers are 2-2 with their only losses being to an unbeaten team and one with one loss...to an unbeaten team. Meanwhile, the Lions are 1-4.
   
5. Detroit is unsettled at the most key position, quarterback—either they will play an injured rookie or a veteran who has never been the same since he suffered a serious injury four years ago. Green Bay, on the other hand, boasts the eighth-rated passer in the league.

I could go on, but those are the highlights. So why is there fear in my eyes? (You can't see them, but trust me, it's there!)

Well, part of it is sheer paranoia: The last thing I need after dealing with all the apologists of the former quarterback henceforth known as The Traitor is another reason to diss Rodgers before the inevitable late-season collapse of that player allows me to throw it in their face.

But part of it is legit. For one thing, the Lions are much-improved despite their record, and infinitely according to it. And the Packers offensive line is, well, offensive: 20 sacks in four games, most in the league.

To add injury to insult, Mark Tauscher is not ready to return, Jason Spitz and Scott Wells are questionable, and Chad Clifton and Daryn Colledge are probable.

If you are scoring at home, that covers all five positions wherein the best player for the position is either out or will not be at his best.

Only Tauscher started off the season with an injury, and the line gave up five sacks in the first game when the other four were healthy.

Here is how the teams match-up:

Packers pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Despite the sacks yielded, Green Bay has the 12th-ranked passing offense at 241 yards per game. The quarterback and receiving corps are near-elite status, easily ranking in the top quarter of the NFL.

The Lions, meanwhile, have generated only ten sacks and rank 27th in the league in yielding about 245 yards per game.

Packers rush offense vs. Lions rush defense: even

Detroit gives up 113 yards per game, putting them 21st in the NFL. The Packers gain almost 100 yards per game, ranking 22nd.

Both teams' stats are hurt by frequency of rush attempts—Green Bay rarely ran the ball against Cincinnati or Minnesota, and the Lions have faced a number of additional carries late in games as teams were trying to milk the clock.

Lions pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: advantage, Green Bay

Detroit generates almost 220 yards through the air per game so far, getting them barely into the top half of the league (16th) despite the score necessitating more passing than usual.

Meanwhile, Green Bay gives up about 223 yards per game, a mediocre ranking of 17th that would seem to suggest the teams are even.

However, they generate turnovers as well as anyone in the game (most of which come in the passing game), and they are more likely than any team to turn those into defensive scores: Last year, the defense led the league in scoring, and this year it has spearheaded the team to the top of the league in turnover ratio and generated two scores already.

Meanwhile, Detroit is 24th in turnover ratio and likely starting an injured rookie—they might do well to go with Culpepper, who has 14 TDs since his last pick against the Packers.

Making matters worse, their best player, Calvin Johnson, is questionable with a knee injury.

Lions rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: even

The Packers have faced excellent backs so far—Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson, and Stephen Jackson are second, third, and fifth in the league in rushing, and Matt Forte is no slouch, either (17th in the league, due in part to the Bears' bye week).

Yet Green Bay fared well against both Peterson and Forte, holding each to just 55 yards on 25 carries.

Nevertheless, they rank just 20th at 112.2 allowed per game. Detroit has averaged 103.2 per contest (19th in the league) despite having to lean more on passing late in games.

Special Teams: slight advantage, Detroit

The Lions have one of the best kickers in the history of the game in Jason Hanson, who has missed only one field goal (in the 40-49 range). Meanwhile, Mason Crosby has missed one in that range, one in the 50-plus range, and an extra point. Both kickers are good on kickoffs.

Punting is also an advantage for the Lions, if only because of coverage—Jeremy Kapinos has an average that is 3.5 yards superior, but the Lions punt coverage allows 6.5 fewer yards per return.

Kick returns and coverage does heavily favour the Packers, however, as they average 6.7 more yards per return than their opponents while the Lions average seven fewer.

Intangibles: advantage, Green Bay

The Packers do have more pressure on them in this game, but it is because the Lions have lower expectations.

That may manifest itself in not believing you will win as well as not knowing how to finish and not having as much drive.

The Packers are at home, have a chance to reaffirm they will contend, and have the Lions' number.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Detroit 16