Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Wild Card Odds, MLB Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 3, 2017

PHOENIX, AZ - SEPTEMBER 23:  Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three-run home run in the third inning against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field on September 23, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona.  (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

Two teams familiar with each other will square off in the National League Wild Card Game Wednesday when the Arizona Diamondbacks (93-69) host the Colorado Rockies (87-75) as large home favorites.

The Diamondbacks and Rockies finished second and third, respectively, in the National League West, and the winner will face the division champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Betting line: The Diamondbacks opened as -166 favorites (wager $166 to win $100); the total is at 8.5 runs, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Why the Rockies can pay on the MLB lines

Colorado recently split a four-game set played at Arizona in the first half of September, taking the first two to end a five-game skid in the series. The Rockies edged the Milwaukee Brewers by one game for the second NL wild-card spot and made the postseason despite dropping two of three to the Dodgers last weekend.

Young righty Jon Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) went 2-1 in three starts versus the Diamondbacks this season with a 3.50 ERA, including a perfect 2-0 mark at Chase Field.

Why the Diamondbacks can pay on the MLB lines

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Arizona had the best record of any Wild Card in either league, tied with the Boston Red Sox and one game better than the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs, who won the NL Central for the second year in a row.

The Diamondbacks also have a viable ace in Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20), and he has a definite experience advantage over Gray. Like Gray, Greinke was 2-1 against his opponent but with a slightly lower 3.41 ERA in five starts. The big difference with Greinke though has been his dominance at home this season as he went 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 outings at Chase.

Smart betting pick

Colorado was just an average road team this year at 41-40 while Arizona went 52-29 at home during the regular season. Only Los Angeles posted more home wins with 57, and that will likely be the deciding factor.

Gray was 5-3 in 12 road starts with a 4.06 ERA, and opposing batters hit .281 against him. Even though he went 2-0 at Chase, Greinke's numbers there are impossible to ignore. The Diamondbacks also won 11 of the 19 meetings in 2017, so ride with them on the MLB lines.

MLB betting trends

The total has gone under in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games.

The total has gone under in six of Colorado's last seven games on the road.

Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last nine games when playing Colorado.

All MLB odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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