Henry's Selection Decisions Crucial for All Blacks

By the end of this weekend, Henry and the national selectors will name a 33 man squad for a difficult end of year tour, where the genesis for the All Blacks most crucial next two years begins.

The Wallabies, Wales, Italy, England, France and the Barbarians wait in a challenging tour which will put the final emphasis on what has been – in terms of results – the worst year in Henry’s reign.

While few would be patting the former Auckland coach on the back for making true on his ominous prediction this year that the All Blacks would lose “more than a couple of games” this year, at least the pressure has no doubt led to the brains trust rethinking some tactics in the war room.

And what a hive of activity it will be, as the All Blacks begin a countdown to the most important campaign they have ever faced, a World Cup assault in their own backyard, with the pressure of not having won for 24 years bearing down on the team like never before.

So the selection for this tour becomes critical, and it remains to see whether or not it will see a repeat of Henry’s cut throat moves in 2004 – incidentally the second worst year of Henry’s reign – which saw the careers of numerous high profile All Blacks, including Andrew Mehrtons and Carlos Spencer, ended as new blood was introduced.

Coincidentally, there are now members of that new blood from five years ago whose places may be under scrutiny.

Rodney So’oialo, the backbone of Henry’s and forward coach Steve Hanson’s pack for so many years, has played a bit part this year, seemingly usurped by Kieran Read.  Joe Rokocoko, who received more lifelines that other illustrious All Blacks before him had ever had, is under pressure from not only young wingers already capped, but by a new generation led by Hawke’s Bay prodigy Zac Guildford.

Here is the immense challenge in Henry’s upcoming pronouncement.

The core of his side are still in their late twenties, and most of them are now hardened veterans, amongst the most experienced international players that have ever worn the black of New Zealand.

Two of them, are all but indispensable to the All Blacks, in Richie McCaw and Dan Carter.  However, their magnificence is a problem in itself, with the apparent daylight between them and their understudies a weakness in the national set up.

Donald still has his critics as the official backup first five, and there are no deputies to McCaw, with Scott Waldrom and Tanerau Latimer filling the roles as well as Adam Thomson.

But there are bolters there, thanks to the prodigious breeding ground in New Zealand.  Manawatu’s Aaron Cruden could be a shock call up to begin his international education at number ten, while there are tough open sides such as George Whitelock and Karl Lowe having strong seasons.

The latter terrorised McCaw’s Canterbury pack in the opening match of the 12^th round of the ANZC.

However there are a host of men, including Mils Muliaina, Rokocoko, Neemia Tialata and Jerome Kaino who have been far from their best this year. Added to this the returning test players such as Luke McAlister and (in 2010) Chris Jack, the All Blacks need to decide how many of their long serving players will remain.

This will probably be the key element of the 2009 end of year tour. While Henry has shown ruthlessness in past coaching roles, most of these All Blacks were instrumental in New Zealand’s golden reign in 2005 and 2006, when New Zealand were almost unbeatable.

How much faith does Henry place in the old adage, form is temporary, class is permanent? Will this tour be the last chance for established players to secure a 2011 berth?                   

As for the second tier, this year’s injuries and mixed results have seen the need for fast tracking player’s development, and for this there may be precious few debutant's going to Europe.

Cory Jane, Kieran Read and Adam Thomson have continued their development, and new faces Owen Franks and Isaac Ross have shown they have the mettle to endure on the test stage.

While there may be some bolters from the Air New Zealand Cup, Henry has long favoured the Super 14 as a more fertile breeding ground, and notwithstanding injuries - which did hamstring the All Blacks in their early campaign – they do have enough quality and depth to not call up any left field selections....yet.

Much will rest on their packed Northern calendar. Henry knows all too well the expectations on himself and the most analysed team in world rugby. Even a solitary loss in the North could have the tour labelled a failure, and for that, every test now must serve as a 2011 selection trial.

For as the Air New Zealand Cup has indeed shown, there is plenty of outstanding talent putting their hand up week after week.