Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Houston owns the edge in the series with Cincinnati, winning seven of the last eight meetings straight up and going 7-2 against the spread over the last nine meetings. Two teams coming off miserable showings to open this season meet when the Texans visit the Bengals on Thursday night at Paul Brown Stadium.

NFL point spread: The Bengals opened as three-point favorites; the total was 38 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.3-12.2 Bengals (NFL picks on every game).

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston opened this season with a 29-7 loss at home to Jacksonville, and it's hard to put perfume on that pig. The Texans were shorthanded to begin with, with three starters out on offense, and lost four others during the game. Houston trailed 19-0 at the half, thanks in part to a Jaguars defensive score, pulled to within 19-7 early in the third quarter but fizzled from there.

On the day, the Texans only produced 203 yards of offense, even as the defense limited Jacksonville to 280 yards. But Houston committed four turnovers, which led directly to 17 Jaguars points—and indirectly might have cost them 20.

Rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, playing in relief of an ineffective Tom Savage, injected some life into the Texans, hitting on 12 of 23 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. But he also turned the ball over twice.

Houston just beat Cincinnati in Week 16 of last season 12-10. The Texans outrushed the Bengals that night 95-50, and the only touchdown they allowed came on a fluky 86-yard catch-and-run.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati's Week 1 performance was an even uglier pig, a 20-0 home shutout against Baltimore. The Bengals only trailed 3-0 past the first-half two-minute warning, then gave up two touchdowns in a 30-second span and never mustered a comeback.

Cincinnati only came up with 221 yards of offense, although the Bengals defense held the Ravens to 268 yards. But five turnovers by quarterback Andy Dalton, including an interception in the Baltimore end zone, another inside Cincinnati's own red zone and a fumble from the Ravens' six-yard line, made all the difference.

As mentioned above, the Bengals lost to Houston last season 12-10, but they would have won had kicker Randy Bullock made a 43-yard field-goal attempt at the buzzer.

Smart pick

Based on last week's performances, neither of these teams appears worthy of a wager, so bettors might be wise to tread lightly. How much has changed since the last time these teams met? Not much. If the smart money wants to play Thursday's game at all, it would take the Texans on the NFL lines.

NFL betting trends

The Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Bengals.

The total has gone under in the Texans' last four games against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.