Biggest College Football X-Factors Who Can Make or Break Their Team
Oklahoma's Jeffery Mead hasn't made much of an impact in his first three seasons, but his senior-year contributions could be what propels the team to the College Football Playoff.
Alabama, USC, Ohio State and Florida State have been well-established as the preseason favorites to reach the CFP. Those teams don't need X-factors to become the best in the country.
However, there are more than a dozen teams just on the other side of that cut line who could vie for a national championship if just one breakout candidate lives up to his potential.
It's from that collection of teams that we've selected CFB's biggest X-factors and listed them on the following slides in alphabetical order by school.
Please note this is not intended to capture every team with a decent shot at reaching college football's final four.
Of particular note, Georgia, Oklahoma State and Washington do not appear on the list, even though all three could open the season in the AP Top 10. The teams making the cut simply have roster situations with clearer opportunities for X-factors to thrive.
John Franklin III, Auburn WR
1 of 9
Breakout Potential
In John Franklin III's final game at East Mississippi CC in 2015, the dual-threat quarterback ran for 172 yards and five touchdowns. This past season at Auburn, he averaged 9.3 yards per carry while rushing for more than twice as many yards (430) than he amassed through the air (204).
However, with Jarrett Stidham coming in to play QB and the running back situation already in great shape with Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson returning, Franklin used the offseason to become acquainted with the ins and outs of playing wide receiver.
Auburn does not have a single returning player who had more than 25 receptions or 300 receiving yards last season, so there's ample opportunity for playing time. Heck, if he balls out in practice for the next few weeks, he could be a starter.
One way or the other, the Tigers are going to want the ball in this speedster's hands at least a few times per game.
Biggest Question Mark
Franklin is on the path to becoming the dreaded jack of all trades, master of none. He will still serve as Auburn's emergency quarterback while relearning all the routes and blocking techniques of a wide receiver. (He played receiver before high school.)
Jet sweeps and end-arounds figure to be where he's most valuable, but how many of those can a team realistically call in a game?
2017 Projection: 275 rushing yards, 340 receiving yards, four all-purpose TD
Tre Lamar, Clemson LB
2 of 9
Breakout Potential
Most of the offseason focus on Clemson has been at the QB and RB positions, but the biggest problem facing the Tigers might be the loss of Ben Boulware.
They still have two proven, quality linebackers in Kendall Joseph and Dorian O'Daniel, but it looks like they'll be replacing their 116-tackle stud with a guy who only played 102 snaps last season.
But for a true freshman to even see the field that much for a national championship team says a lot about Tre Lamar's potential.
Scout didn't think too highly of Lamar, rating him as the 163rd overall recruit last season. Rivals, on the other hand, gave him a 5-star rating as the No. 16 overall recruit. If the latter is his true ceiling and he can approach it as a sophomore, Clemson should remain dominant on defense.
Biggest Question Mark
What happens if Lamar struggles early?
Clemson plays Auburn and Louisville in the first three weeks of the season. The former has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and the latter has a reigning Heisman winner as its dual-threat QB.
The middle linebacker has a ton of responsibility in those games, as evidenced by Boulware's 18 tackles against Louisville last season. If Lamar is unable to hit the ground running in September, the Tigers may look to replace him with some combination of Shaq Smith, Chad Smith and Jalen Williams.
2017 Projection: 84 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks
Tyrie Cleveland, Florida WR
3 of 9
Breakout Potential
Per Scout, Tyrie Cleveland was Florida's top high school recruit in 2016. But a BB gun incident in July followed by a hamstring injury in fall practices mitigated his ability to make an impact as a true freshman. He only made one reception in September en route to finishing the year with 14 catches.
In those limited touches, though, Cleveland displayed a ton of potential. The 98-yard TD reception against LSU was the big one, but he also had catches go for 36 and 46 yards.
Now that he has had a year for the hamstring to heal and to become acquainted with this offense—and now that he will presumably have Malik Zaire throwing him the ball instead of Luke Del Rio or Austin Appleby—Cleveland could be the SEC's 2017 breakout sensation.
Biggest Question Mark
Where is Cleveland in the pecking order of this receiving game? Seven Gators made at least 10 receptions in 2016 and six of those players are returning, including top targets and projected starters Antonio Callaway, Brandon Powell and TE DeAndre Goolsby.
Cleveland established himself as the best big-play target of the bunch—he averaged 21.3 yards per reception while the next best of the aforementioned septet was Callaway at 13.4—but with so many returning factors, how much will his targets increase?
2017 Projection: 39 receptions, 743 yards, seven TD
Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville RB/WR
4 of 9
Breakout Potential
Is there anything Reggie Bonnafon can't do? He began his career at Louisville as a dual-threat quarterback, served as both a wide receiver and backup QB as a sophomore, became a full-time WR as a junior and now appears to be headed for a spot in the backfield.
Jeremy Smith will likely start at running back for the Cardinals, but a broken foot kept him out of the spring, allowing/forcing Bonnafon to become the team's primary ball-carrier.
"We can still utilize him as a receiver, either coming out of the backfield or by lining up and shifting and moving," head coach Bobby Petrino said, per Steve Jones of the Courier-Journal (via USA Today). "I think it'll give us a type of offense that will be harder to defend."
Harder to defend than the team that just ranked sixth in the nation with 42.5 points per game? That's a terrifying proposition, but it's the benefit of pairing two high-caliber athletes such as Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson.
Biggest Question Mark
Bonnafon may be a Swiss-Army knife, but he has been oft-forgotten throughout his career. He bounced in and out of the QB job as a freshman, struggled to find consistent playing time as a sophomore and never received more than three touches in a game as a junior.
As it turns out, when you're backing up every position, you're not putting up big numbers at any of them.
2017 Projection: 71 carries, 311 yards, three TD; 25 receptions, 293 yards, one TD
JaCoby Stevens, LSU WR
5 of 9
Breakout Potential
Though JaCoby Stevens had been listed as a 5-star safety throughout the recruiting process, playing wide receiver was always a possibility.
As a senior at Oakland High School, he made 34 receptions for 673 yards and 12 touchdowns, per MaxPreps. He also scored two TDs on punt returns and another one on a kick return, so he could be an X-factor in the return game if things don't immediately pan out at wide receiver.
But, if he can catch a ball and chew gum at the same time, there's no good reason Stevens couldn't be a factor in the passing game.
Aside from D.J. Chark, the Tigers don't have any established receiving threats. Chark's 26 catches for 466 yards make him the only returning player with more than 10 catches or 106 yards—marks set by a fullback and a running back, respectively. Russell Gage is probably the top candidate for No. 2 WR, and the senior only has five receptions in his career. Stevens should get a lot of reps as a true freshman.
Biggest Question Mark
Will the late change keep Stevens from hitting the ground running?
Though he was an early enrollee, he spent the entire spring working out at safety, meaning he will have about a month of preseason practices to learn the offense. As a result, maybe he spends his first season as more of a gadget option than a full-time slot receiver, which would limit his potential impact.
2017 Projection: 31 receptions, 489 yards, four TD
Ty Isaac, Michigan RB
6 of 9
Breakout Potential
Ty Isaac was a 5-star recruit in 2013. He lasted just one season with the USC Trojans before transferring to Michigan and has been fighting for position on the RB depth chart ever since. But with De'Veon Smith now out of the picture, Isaac may get his long-awaited chance to shine.
He still has to battle Chris Evans, Karan Higdon and redshirt freshman Kareem Walker for carries, but Isaac is more of a bowling ball than the first two and has significantly more experience than Walker.
If nothing else, the spot at running back in short-yardage situations should be Isaac's to lose. And depending on how he fares in those opportunities, he could be Michigan's first 1,000-yard rusher since 2012.
Biggest Question Mark
What type of impact will Walker have? With four viable options to start at running back and no wide receivers on the roster who put up impressive numbers last season, Michigan figures to run the ball a ton.
The Wolverines were already averaging 44 carries per game in 2016, and that number could tick up closer to 50.
But, if Walker continues to impress in practices and supplants Isaac on the depth chart, the latter could be left with just a couple touches per game—as was the case in the second half of last season.
2017 Projection: 128 carries, 687 yards, seven TD
Jeffery Mead, Oklahoma WR
7 of 9
Breakout Potential
Jeffery Mead's impact at Oklahoma over the past three seasons has been minimal. He played in eight games without making a catch as a freshman and had six and 10 receptions as a sophomore and junior, respectively. But two of the catches he made last season found their way into the Harris Highlights reel of the top 100 plays of the 2016-17 season.
(If you have 47 minutes and need help getting amped for the year ahead, you're going to want to watch that whole thing. If not, Mead's impressive plays are Nos. 89 and 77.)
Part of the reason Mead has struggled to carve out a big role has been the presence of better, established options. Guys like Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon soaked up most of the spotlight before exiting stage left. But now the Sooners have openings for playmakers, where Mead may well be the best candidate.
Biggest Question Mark
If he hasn't already established a strong rapport with Baker Mayfield, why should his final year be any better?
The opportunity for more receptions was there for the taking when Shepard left after the 2015 season, but Mead's reception total merely increased by four while guys like Nick Basquine and Penn State transfer Geno Lewis became legitimate weapons in the offense. Even if Mead only bumps up to No. 4 on Mayfield's list of favorite targets, though, it would mean a huge boost to his numbers.
2017 Projection: 42 receptions, 698 yards, six TD
Miles Sanders, Penn State RB/KR
8 of 9
Breakout Potential
For all of the talk about Saquon Barkley's chance to win the Heisman this year, his backup might be the one with the brighter future.
Per Scout, Miles Sanders was the No. 1 RB in last year's recruiting class. He flashed some serious skill in limited opportunities as a true freshman, averaging 7.4 yards per carry and rushing for at least 14 yards on six of his 25 carries. He also served as Penn State's primary kick returner, as James Franklin tried to find ways to get him the ball.
Because of Barkley, Sanders isn't nearly the same type of breakout candidate as the others on this list. But as a kick returner and back-up running back with elite speed, he could be the most important X-factor in the entire country.
Biggest Question Mark
Will Sanders actually hang on to the ball this year? Combining his carries, receptions and kick returns, Sanders had 60 touches last season. Per Greg Pickel of PennLive, he fumbled four times, which amounts to a fumble on 6.7 percent of touches.
If he doesn't fix that problem in a hurry, Andre Robinson and Mark Allen will get all of the non-Barkley reps at RB.
2017 Projection: 58 carries, 361 yards, four TD; 27 kick returns, 651 yards, one TD
Garret Dooley, Wisconsin LB
9 of 9
Breakout Potential
Wisconsin typically has one of the best rush defenses in the country, as well as an above-average pass rush. That isn't going to suddenly change just because T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel are no longer on the roster. Rather, last year's top reserve linebacker, Garret Dooley, should step into a starring role.
Dooley had 40 tackles and 3.5 sacks last season and performed admirably in his two starts against Michigan and Ohio State.
He had a grand total of eight tackles in his career prior to being thrust into a starting role in the Big House, but he stepped up to the challenge with seven tackles and a sack in the absence of Biegel.
Unless he starts bringing down the quarterback as often as Watt did (11.5 sacks in 2016), Dooley will likely be overlooked in this linebacking corps in favor of inside guys Jack Cichy and T.J. Edwards.
But Dooley's output could determine whether the Badgers are able to enter the Big Ten championship game in the conversation for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Biggest Question Mark
Will a second quality outside linebacker emerge to help take focus off Dooley?
With both Watt and Biegel gone, Dooley is Wisconsin's only player with significant FBS experience at OLB. Unless Zack Baun or newly transitioned-to-OLB Leon Jacobs is able to create pressure on the opposite side of the line, Dooley might not be able to make much of an impact.
2017 Projection: 61 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 6.0 sacks
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and cfbstats.com, and recruiting data is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college football and college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
