Which Ace Should Be the Dodgers' Trade Target: Darvish, Gray or Verlander?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 40 games over .500 and way ahead in the NL West. They could load up their starting rotation with defective Jack-in-the-boxes and still win a fifth straight division title.

But since they also have a World Series to win, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that they're aiming higher ahead of the July 31 trade deadline:

Morosi added that the Dodgers are more focused on Yu Darvish and Sonny Gray than on Justin Verlander.

Regardless, the situation is that the best team in baseball—a distinction the Dodgers earn both with their 71-31 record and their plus-181 run differential—is eyeing a deal for one of the three best starters on the trade market. They're not messing around.

However, they can only get one of these guys. Conveniently, there's also only one right choice. 

The Case for Justin Verlander

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

If nothing else, Verlander has the pedigree.

He's spent 13 seasons with the Detroit Tigers, most of which have been tremendous. He won a Cy Young and an MVP in 2011, and his bride-to-be had a gripe when she argued a second Cy Young should have been his in 2016.

Just as important for the Dodgers is what Verlander has done in October. He has a 3.39 ERA in 16 total career postseason starts and a sparkling 1.76 ERA in his last eight. The bright lights don't shrink him like they've shrunk the Dodgers in the last four postseasons.

The catch is that Verlander hasn't been his best in 2017. He has a 4.50 ERA in 21 outings, in part because he's struggled with walks (4.1 BB//9) and home runs (1.1 HR/9).

It's a big silver lining that he at least appears to be healthy. He may be 34 years old with a lot of innings on his right arm and serious health trouble not far in the rear-view mirror, but he's averaging 95.2 miles per hour on his fastball. That's his best since 2010.

Another positive with Verlander is that dealing for him would mostly cost the Dodgers what they have a lot of: money.

He's making $28 million this season and both of the next two seasons. That puts his remaining guaranteed money at roughly $70 million. Oh, and he also has a $22 million vesting option for 2020.

The more money the Dodgers take on, the less they'll have to surrender from a farm system headlined by four blue chips: right-handers Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez, outfielder Alex Verdugo and infielder Willie Calhoun. 

Since the Dodgers come by money easier than they come by prospects, that should sound good to them.

The Case for Sonny Gray

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Gray, on the other hand, will cost prospects.

The Oakland A's right-hander is making only $3.575 million and is under club control for two more seasons. And he's only 27 years old.

Gray thus has more in common with Jose Quintana than he does with Verlander. The A's are apparently well aware of that.

"The [Chicago] White Sox got top slugging prospect Eloy Jimenez and three others for Quintana, a reasonable take," Jon Heyman of FanRag wrote. "But the A’s, with the supply and demand currently in their favor, may actually be looking for even more than that."

That price alone would make a deal a high-risk move. And then there's the reality that Gray is somewhere short of the Terminator on the invulnerability scale.

He's a diminutive 5'10" and 190 pounds. He missed time with arm and shoulder injuries in 2016 and then missed the first month of this season with a lat injury. And between last year and this year, he went on a 32-start stretch in which he posted a 5.41 ERA.

The trade-off is Gray's upside.

He had a 2.88 ERA through his first three seasons, peaking as an All-Star and a Cy Young contender in 2015. After a slow start this year, he's come around with a 1.37 ERA in his last six starts.

Like Verlander, Gray also appears to be healthy. His average fastball is 93 mph. And he's rocking a solid strikeout rate (8.7 K/9) and a solid walk rate (2.8 BB/9).

But at heart, he's a ground-ball pitcher. That's where a move to Los Angeles becomes especially intriguing. Per Baseball Savant, the Dodgers are good at suppressing batting average on ground balls:

Rank	Team	GB AVG
1	Chicago Cubs	.214
2	LA Dodgers	.221
3	Milwaukee Brewers	.229
4	St. Louis Cardinals	.231
5	Oakland A's	.232

The cost for Gray would be big. But if the stars aligned, the Dodgers would be getting a young ace they could keep for a couple extra years.

      

The Case for Yu Darvish

Richard W. Rodriguez/Associated Press

After weeks of contradictory rumors, the Texas Rangers are indeed prepared to trade Darvish.

This comes from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:

With his six-year, $56 million contract up in two months, Darvish is only a rental. But that won't make him cheap. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the Rangers are likely to ask for "at least two" from that Walker-Alvarez-Verdugo-Calhoun foursome.

That seems steep for a guy with a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts, but everything looked a lot better before Darvish's 10-run blowup against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday.

Until then, he was sitting on a 3.44 ERA with a high strikeout rate (9.7 K/9) and a low walk rate (2.9). And he was holding hitters to a .658 OPS, basically par for the course by his standards.

The obligatory injury note is that Darvish missed all of 2015 and some of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he showed no ill effects when he returned and has kept rolling along this year.

That gets at the essential truth of Darvish's major league career: When he can pitch, he's usually good. To wit, his adjusted ERA+ since 2012 ranks ahead of guys like Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Stephen Strasburg and Jon Lester.

The Inarguable Verdict: Darvish

The "inarguable" you see there is, of course, tongue in cheek.

But still, Darvish is clearly the right answer.

The actual "trade" part of a Verlander trade would be palatable, but his struggles this season are a red flag. They could be nothing major. Or, they could be signaling the beginning of the end for a tired veteran.

Gray's recent run looks good, but it has occurred over too small a sample size to deserve blind trust. It's not yet time to forget how ugly things were before.

His recent dud aside, Darvish has been a sure thing this season in a way that Verlander and Gray haven't been. And as much as their extra controllability is a tantalizing perk, that should be a mere secondary concern for the Dodgers.

They're the "win-nowingest" team that's ever wanted to win now. They don't need guys who can help them maybe now and maybe later. They need guys who can absolutely, positively help them right this moment.

Guys like Darvish.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.