The Complete Guide to UFC 214: Jones vs. Cormier 2
The rivalry is an easy narrative.
The greatest fighter in the world, Jon Jones, after his long layoffs and meticulously documented personal problems, returns to action against Daniel Cormier, the UFC light heavyweight champion who has never lost to anyone but Jones. And they hate each other, truly and viscerally, in a way that's so raw and personal that it's almost—almost, I say—hard to watch.
So many emotions heading into the blockbuster UFC 214 card, going down Saturday in Anaheim, California. But, for as great and compelling as it is, don't let the main event blind you to the rest of the card, which itself is objectively outstanding, from Fight Pass to finale.
Three—count 'em—three UFC titles are on the line. In the co-main event, Tyron Woodley puts up his welterweight title when he faces Demian Maia, one of the sport's great gentlemen and jiu-jitsu practitioners who is fighting for a UFC belt for the first time. Then, the great Cris "Cyborg" Justino finally gets her own shot at UFC gold when she takes on charismatic Invicta champ Tonya Evinger for the UFC women's featherweight title.
And we haven't even mentioned Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler yet.
There are athletic greatness and human interest in equal parts at UFC 214. Here's your complete guide to the full card.
All record information courtesy of Sherdog.com. All betting odds courtesy of OddsShark.com and accurate as of Thursday (-150 means bet $150 to win $100; +150 means bet $100 to win $150).
The Fight Pass Prelims
1 of 7
Lightweight
Josh Burkman (28-15) vs. Drew Dober (17-8)
If you know what Burkman is doing, you're a better person than I. Going against the curve of the typical career arc, the career welterweight remains at lightweight. He has lost three straight and five of six while shuttling between the two. His last fight, a loss to Michel Prazeres, didn't exactly indicate he has much left in the tank, and his tank was pretty much his calling card.
Dober isn't a perfect fighter, particularly given his tendency to be submitted, but Burkman doesn't seem to have what it takes to make guys like Dober pay any more. Dober's a strong muay thai striker with skills in every phase. I would say the guard changes here, but it's already done. It pains you to say that about someone with as long and solid a career as Burkman—but unless the candle flickers brightly one more time before it goes out, this one's fairly easy to predict.
Prediction: Dober, unanimous decision
Flyweight
Eric Shelton (10-3) vs. Jarred Brooks (12-0)
You're going to get tired of watching this fight.
Brooks is an absolute berserker of a flyweight. An angry waterbug buzzing over the surface. This is his UFC debut after an extended hype period slowly built during his prospect years.
In his previous five fights for various overseas shows, he finished four of them. He wants to hit you or take you to the mat.
None of that is so easy when you weigh 125 pounds. Frankly, I'm not even sure the Indiana Monkey God weighs that much. Remember those overseas shows? In his last bout there, he competed at strawweight (115).
Shelton seems a little more solid physically and competitively, having fought superprospect Alexandre Pantoja to a split decision earlier this year (he lost, but still).
Both men are aggressive and rare flyweight commodities in that they can turn off your lights (seven stoppages for each). But there's a mountain of momentum right now behind his walk-off KO power and frenetic but effective grappling game. Who am I to blow against the wind?
Prediction: Brooks, TKO, Rd. 2
Strawweight
Kailin Curran (4-4) vs. Alexandra Albu (2-0)
Curran is tough and hits hard but seems to cut corners at bad times, be it in fully committing to stopping a takedown or staying disciplined as she tries to escape a bad ground position. She also just seems to go limp sometimes and then you can see it her posture.
Can Albu, the potentially marketable but inexperienced Russian, capitalize? She came out like a rocket, with a first-round TKO in her pro debut and a second-round submission in her first UFC bout. But that UFC bout was more than two years ago.
I would normally pick Albu for her terrific athleticism, kickboxing and submissions. But with two years away? That's a lot of rust. Then again, do I really have to make a pick here? Because I do not wish to do that.
Prediction: Albu, unanimous decision
The FXX Prelims
2 of 7
Featherweight
Andre Fili (16-4) vs. Calvin Kattar (16-2)
Fili is a big favorite here and for good reason. The Team Alpha Male product has had bumps in the road but still has a solid 4-3 record in the UFC. This is his first fight in 2017, and he'll want to win his second in a row. Fili has always had a bit of a street fighter in his game—he's more of a scrambler than a wrestler, for example, or more of a dervish brawler than a kickboxer. But it works for him.
Kattar is aggressive in his own right, but a skill gap combined with the fact that he's making his UFC debut on short notice will be too much to overcome.
Prediction: Fili, TKO, Rd. 2
Featherweight
Brian Ortega (11-0-1) vs. Renato Moicano (11-0-1)
Ortega just keeps winning. He's got a style tailor-made to rack up victories and fans. He looks for knockouts and submissions and he's always in a state of scrambling, but he pulls it out when it matters most and he takes full advantage of every opportunity he gets, particularly when one's in his guard. He fights with a horseshoe in his shorts, but God bless him. (This theme also extends outside of the cage, where Ortega has a failed drug test for performance-enhancing drugs on his ledger.)
Moicano, despite his identical record, is almost the perfect opposite as a fighter. He's methodical on the feet and the ground, preferring perimeter striking in the former and top control in the latter.
Ortega is fun to watch and easy to root for, but the more disciplined fighter pulls off the win Saturday.
Prediction: Moicano, unanimous decision
Catchweight (140 pounds)
Aljamain Sterling (13-2) vs. Renan Barao (34-4)
It's the third fight of 2017 for Sterling as he looks to create a two-fight winning streak to counteract the hype-defusing back-to-back losses he suffered to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao.
Everyone knows the book on Aljo by now. The former college wrestler wants to get you to the mat and manipulate you into all manner of ghastly positions, ultimately leading to a choke.
This fight takes place at 140 pounds because the California State Athletic Commission, a well-known leader in this area, refused to let Barao make a precipitous cut down to the 135-pound bantamweight limit.
People seem to have forgotten about Barao or regard him as broken-down in some way, but he's still a dangerous fighter. He still has vicious muay thai that will make Sterling think twice about those takedown attempts and possesses superelite takedown defense to prevent them from being converted.
Sterling's striking is getting better but it's not as good as Barao's. The former bantamweight kingpin should be able to keep this on the feet and outland Sterling for the W.
Prediction: Barao, unanimous decision
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas (17-5) vs. Jason Knight (20-2)
Oh, now I like this fight. Neither of these men is afraid to mix it up, and mix it up they shall.
Like Ortega earlier on the card, a dangerous guard is the backbone of Knight's game. Well, that and a lot of trash-talking. He's aggressive and will pressure Lamas from the start. Lamas will return fire in kind, but his wrestling game and vicious ground-and-pound will be stifled somewhat by that aforementioned guard.
I won't say I expect Lamas to wilt under the pressure. He's too tough, too skilled for that kind of assessment. But Knight's output may not be reciprocated 100 percent, especially if Lamas' use of wrestling is limited in its effectiveness.
Prediction: Knight, unanimous decision
Jimi Manuwa vs. Volkan Oezdemir
3 of 7
Light Heavyweight
Jimi Manuwa (17-2) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (14-1)
Oezdemir just keeps winning despite the analysts' best efforts to write him off. He's the Tim Tebow of MMA, without all that pesky charisma.
Manuwa is enjoying a career resurgence at age 37. After a knockout loss to Anthony Johnson in 2015, he missed a year of action, then returned with two consecutive bonus-winning knockouts.
He'll go for three against Oezdemir, who will give him plenty of chances. Oezdemir doesn't have much wrestling, which makes this a good matchup for Manuwa. It's a kickboxing match under MMA rules.
All joking aside, Oezdemir has been impressive in his two-fight UFC career, taking a split decision with Ovince St-Preux and derailing Misha Cirkunov with a flash knockout.
But his run ends here, at least for now. Manuwa is the more skilled competitor and shouldn't be deterred by Oezdemir's kicks.
Betting Odds: Manuwa -204, Oezdemir +160
Prediction: Manuwa, TKO, Rd. 2
Robbie Lawler vs. Donald Cerrone
4 of 7
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler (27-11) vs. Donald Cerrone (32-8)
If you have any hatches, now's the time to start battening them down.
Fans have been wanting this matchup, between two of the best and most violent strikers in UFC history, for ages.
Cerrone is going to come out like a house of fire, just like he always does. He will fire off his muay thai strikes early and often, chopping Lawler with leg kicks and probably aiming high for a head shot.
Lawler may hang out and wait on the counter before trying to drag things into the phone booth as the minutes roll on. Body shots could be Lawler's friend in this matchup against the lankier range striker in Cerrone.
Will Cerrone be able to control distance with kicks, or will Lawler be able to get inside and slam punches on Cerrone's body? That's what it boils down to. It's a battle of range.
Betting Odds: Lawler -150, Cerrone +110
Prediction: It's kind of hard to believe Lawler hasn't competed since his knockout loss to Tyron Woodley, which cost him the UFC welterweight title. Also kind of hard to believe that was a year ago. He may be rusty, but he also may be highly motivated to get his mojo back. With Lawler's proven record of success in big fights like this one, I'll send the nod his way, but either man could absolutely emerge here with a career-defining victory.
Lawler, TKO, Rd. 3
Cristiane 'Cyborg' Justino vs. Tonya Evinger
5 of 7
Women's Featherweight
Cris Cyborg (17-1) vs. Tonya Evinger (19-5)
If a combat sports matchup could ever be said to be joyous, this is the time to say it.
Cyborg is probably the best female MMA fighter ever. Her jiu-jitsu and takedown defense are strong, but that's not why people watch her and she never really uses those skills in the cage. Her muay thai is accurate, powerful and devastating. She stalks opponents back to the cage and soul-reaves them with pinpoint combinations that land like exploding bombs.
Opponents are more like victims. They leave the cage mangled. Fortunately for them, at least it doesn't last very long. Only one of her last five fights left the first round, and none of them ended in anything besides a knockout. Fifteen of her 17 wins have ended that way, so no big surprise there.
After years of acrimony with the UFC and long-distance abuse from heavies like Dana White and Ronda Rousey, Cyborg—by all accounts as likable outside the cage as she is fearsome in it—finally gets what she has long deserved. She is getting her shot at a UFC championship and the unequivocal distinction as the best.
On the other side, Evinger, a champion from the Invicta promotion, is a severe underdog. But that's OK for someone who has styled herself the underdog her entire career. A no-nonsense, outspoken personalty who used to train in her front yard, Evinger has star potential for her toughness and grit. Win or lose, this gives her a spotlight to convert that potential.
Betting Odds: Justino -1110, Evinger +690
Prediction: Additional analysis seems beside the point. This is Cyborg's fight and championship to lose. The UFC did the right thing by stripping reluctant champion Germaine de Randamie when she wouldn't face Cyborg, and everyone is now being rewarded by this fight between two of the most charismatic figures in the sport.
Cyborg, TKO, Rd. 1
Tyron Woodley vs. Demian Maia
6 of 7
Welterweight
Tyron Woodley (17-3-1) vs. Demian Maia (25-6)
It's another feel-good story when the much-beloved Maia finally gets the UFC title shot after which he's been tilting for the past 10 years.
Woodley is a good fighter and champion, but his low-output style doesn't exactly win him legions of fans. His striking is improving and is definitely better than Maia's, but that's not saying much. He has heavy hands and can land a big shot, but he's not going to carve anybody up in there.
Grappling and wrestling are where the real drama lies. Maia's among the very best in the world in jiu-jitsu, but this is still a bad matchup for him despite that. Woodley is a big, strong, stout guy with good balance and great takedown defense. The leaner Maia may not have the raw power to move Woodley where he wants to.
This could mean extended stalemates in the clinch. Oh no! From where is my hope to come? I'll tell you where.
While Woodley is racking up riding time against the fence, Maia will have his opportunities to wear Woodley down as well with body locks. Maia holds a serious advantage in the cardio department. Later in the contest, after a long period of inactivity, Maia will get around the takedown problem by mounting Woodley's back from the standing position and locking in a rear-naked choke when we all least suspect it. Sound the upset alarms—we have a new champion.
Betting Odds: Woodley -167, Maia +134
Prediction: Maia, submission, Rd. 4
Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones
7 of 7
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones (22-1) vs. Daniel Cormier (19-1)
OK, forget everything I said before about the depth of this card. Who am I kidding? This is the easily the best fight on the card. It might be the best fight of all time.
Think about it. Jones is the greatest fighter ever. There's a lot of consensus there. Cormier is an Olympic-level wrestler and a UFC champion in his own right. You can count with one hand, maybe one finger, the number of times Cormier has even been threatened in a cage outside his encounter with Jones. Here's a guy who handles the likes of Rumble Johnson with relative ease and summons the mental toughness to gut through adversity against guys like Alexander Gustafsson.
Don't ever let the smile or the endomorphism fool you. Cormier's clinch and ground games are stifling and soul-sucking. It may not be exciting to watch, but the way he controls his opponent's wrists and mashes him into the fence before dumping him on the ground and smothering him from the top until he doesn't want to be there anymore is pretty amazing nonetheless. All Cormier needs to do is to demonstrate the effectiveness of his style is pointing to his track record.
He also has something in his corner that he didn't have the first time he faced Jones in 2015: ring rust. Jones needed the oil can big-time during his 2016 bout with Ovince St-Preux, which he took after more than a year of idleness. Well, guess what? It's been another year-plus. Physically, Jones looks great in the run-up to Saturday, but what else is new? We won't really know until we see him unleash himself in the cage.
If he does, and it's classic Jones, Cormier will again have his hands full. Jones is the greatest weapon of human combat in the sport. His 84.5-inch reach will be exactly 12 inches longer than Cormier's. At 6'4" he is also six inches taller.
But what really set him apart is the combat computer inside his brain. The way he strings together strikes—from a spinning elbow to a jab to a knee to a leg kick, for example—is mesmerizing. And all of it lands. There's no empty glitz in his game, relatively speaking. And Jones is a brutal and powerful clinch fighter, thanks in large part to those hellacious knees, so a classic Cormier strength isn't as strong in this particular matchup.
In order to win, Cormier might have to take Jones down and hold him on his back. That's a great strength of Cormier's and the supposed Achilles' heel of Jones. But, as we all know, the next person to actually do that to Jones will be the first.
Jones has an endless gas tank, and while Cormier is far better conditioned than he might visually seem, he may wear down as the fight goes on. If Cormier can get inside and soften Jones up for takedowns later in the fight, that may be the play. Ring rust, if it hampers Jones, could help.
Betting Odds: Jones -150, Cormier +120
Prediction: Several planets need to align for Cormier to get this done. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No. Not against a motivated GOAT in Jones.
Jones, unanimous decision.
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