New York Giants: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

At the end of the day, it might be all about the number of wins an NFL team records, but let's be honest, shall we? It takes statistics—lots of positive statistics—to help a team rack up enough wins to qualify for postseason consideration.

That brings us to the New York Giants and their projected stats for the upcoming season. Do keep in mind that injuries, weather, game plans and other factors can affect how much a player participates each week, so predicting exact stats is probably an exercise in futility.

But what we can try to do is look at what might be expected of the players and/or specific units on the team and break down whether those figures, derived by studying past Giants statistical trends and consulting other sources for opinions, are realistic.

QB Eli Manning: 4,100 Passing Yards, Over

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Last year, quarterback Eli Manning recorded his third straight (and sixth in his career) 4,000-yard passing season, finishing with 4,027 yards.

That's rather impressive if you consider that other than Odell Beckham Jr., Manning’s receivers, tight ends and backs out of the backfield were, to put it kindly, inconsistent.

Armed this year with vastly improved skill position players to target such as Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, Manning should have no problem topping 4,100 passing yards for the season if he remains healthy.

While he probably won't come close to his career-high 4,933 yards set in 2011—not if the Giants make good on plans to have more of a balanced offense between the run and pass—4,400 passing yards should be in reach for the 36-year-old Manning.

WR Odell Beckham Jr: 103 Receptions, Under

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been training like a madman out in California, determined to make the 2017 season the best yet of his young NFL career.

Leaving no stone unturned, Beckham has likely focused on reducing his dropped passes, an area where he led the Giants last year. He would also no doubt like to improve his yards per reception and his number of touchdown catches, both of which were career lows for him in 2016.

Yet when it comes to the offense, the chances of Beckham again being the guy would appear slim given the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram.

Beckham, who has seen his receptions increase each year since being drafted in 2014, has likely topped out (for now) at 101, thanks to the aforementioned players, who are almost certain to cut into targets that in the past might otherwise have gone Beckham's way.

TE Evan Engram Touchdowns: 2.0, Over

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Going back to 1980, Giants rookie tight ends generally haven't lit up the scoreboard.

There have been exceptions. Per Pro Football Reference, Mark Bavaro, drafted in 1985, remains the franchise leader in touchdowns scored by a rookie tight end (four), drafted or undrafted.

He's followed by Will Tye, who caught three touchdowns in 2015. Jeremy Shockey (2002), Visanthe Shiancoe (2003) and Kevin Boss (2007) are all next with two apiece in their first NFL seasons.

The latest Giants rookie tight end seeking to light up the scoreboard this season is Engram, the team's 2017 first-round pick and a player Bavaro could barely contain his excitement over, telling George Willis of the New York Post that Engram is "unbelievable."

Bavaro added: "I don't know what he's going to look like in pads and playing football. But he can move. He can run and he can catch. He's impressive."

The two-time Super Bowl champion is not alone in hoping Engram—who recorded 12 touchdown receptions in three years with Ole Miss, including eight last year—develops into a legitimate threat in the passing game who can put points on the board and is renowned for his ability to make plays in the middle of the field.

Toss in the fact Engram is versatile enough to line up anywhere for the Giants—out wide, in the slot, in line and in the backfield—and is likely to be a prominent chess piece in the team's red-zone scoring opportunities.

These factors, combined with Engram's natural talent, should result in more than enough opportunities for him to surpass Bavaro's four-touchdown rookie season.

Team Sacks: 45, Under

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Among the many areas in which the Giants defense made significant improvement was in the sack department.

Thanks to the addition of Olivier Vernon, who paired with Jason Pierre-Paul at defensive end, New York's sack totals rose from 23 in 2015 to 35 in 2016 and might have been even higher if Pierre-Paul wasn't lost for the last seven games of the year.

While 45 sacks isn't an unrealistic goal for a team—the Giants topped that number in 2007 (52) and 2011 (48)—if Big Blue are to crack into the top 10 in the league (they tied for 14th last year), they must find a legitimate and productive third defensive end.

Each of the Giants' two most recent championship teams was unable to unleash that three-headed monster—in 2007, it was Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck accounting for 32 of the team's 52 sacks, and in 2011, Tuck, Umenyiora and Pierre-Paul racked up 30.5 of the 48 team sacks.

Unlike last year, when the Giants didn't have anyone step up, they appear to have options in 2017. Romeo Okwara, who stepped in for Pierre-Paul when he went down with his injury, has some experience under his belt, but the guy to keep an eye on is veteran Devin Taylor, a late-spring free-agent acquisition who has 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons.

If the Giants can get a third pass-rusher to flourish in this defense, topping 45 sacks for the season should be a piece of cake.

Team Rushing: 1,800 Yards: Under

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Although the Giants revamped their running game by promoting Paul Perkins as a starter, drafting Wayne Gallman and adding some run-blocking help via tight end Rhett Ellison, they are likely to remain a pass-first team.

A look back over the past three campaigns—the Ben McAdoo era for the offense—shows the number of pass attempts by the quarterbacks topped 600 in all but last season, when they fell just two attempts shy of 600.

Meanwhile, the Giants offense hasn't had the run-pass balance since 2013, when the number of passes seemed to grossly outnumber the number of rushing attempts.

Getting back to 2017, Pro Football Focus projects Perkins will record 840 rushing yards on 217 carries. That would leave the rest of the running backs—rookie Gallman, who could begin as the team's short-yardage and goal-line back, Shane Vereen and the winner of the competition between Orleans Darkwa and Shaun Draughn—to pick up the rest of the yards needed to give the Giants 400 more yards than what they finished with last year.

While the running game should be more effective this season, to expect it to be the bread and butter of this offense, as was the case in 2007 and 2008, might be pushing things.

Sacks Surrendered: 25, Over

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The good news for the Giants is that in each of the past three seasons, the offensive line has seen the number of sacks allowed decrease, dropping from 30 in 2014 to 27 in 2015 to 22 last year.

This is an example of where there is more than what meets the eye. A big reason for that decrease in sacks was the emphasis on getting the ball out of the quarterback's hands a lot faster.

In the process, the number of deep pass attempts (20 or more yards) has also declined.

According to stats collected by NFL Savant, the Giants averaged 85.3 deep pass attempts of 20 or more yards from 2014 through 2016; in the three years prior, they averaged 97.6 deep pass attempts per season.

With the additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram to a skill player group that also includes Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Shane Vereen, the Giants, on paper, have guys who can convert on the deep ball.

However, the wild card is the offensive line, which projects to return the same five starters this year from 2016: Ereck Flowers, Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg, John Jerry and Bobby Hart.

That unit did not allow a lot of sacks last year. But according to Pro Football Focus, the unit allowed a whopping 169 total pressures (18th-most) for a pass-blocking efficiency rating of 79.1.

If the Giants do intend to open the passing game, the offensive linemen are going to need to do a much better job at holding their blocks, something the various members of this unit haven't been challenged to do since McAdoo replaced Kevin Gilbride as offensive coordinator following the 2013 season.

Team Interceptions: 13, Over

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Entering the 2017 season, the Giants, at least in Pro Football Focus' eyes, have the league's best defensive secondary.

The production would sure support that opinion, particularly when looking at the number of interceptions logged by the Giants—17, which tied them for fourth (with four other teams) and put them one behind the three teams tied for first. 

Even more impressive is that none of the New York secondary's starters—Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple, Landon Collins and Andrew Adams—led the team in interceptions, with that honor going to slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who had six.

So what's in store for a pass defense that returns most of the same guys from last year (and you can throw in the pass-rushers who help disrupt the opposing quarterbacks' timing with receivers)?

Per ESPN's fantasy football stats projection, the Giants should see a decrease in interceptions, to 13.3. How that's possible given the return of most of the same guys combined with some expected new wrinkles, designed by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to keep opponents on edge, is not known.

However, if the Giants defense continues to make the pocket unsafe for opposing quarterbacks, there is no reason to think the number of interceptions recorded by this defense won't be on par or better than what it recorded last year.

Regular-Season Wins: 8, Over

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

CBSSports.com's Will Brinson estimates the Giants will finish the 2017 season with 8.1 wins, which we will round down to a whole number since the only decimal in the win/loss stat line is win percentage.

In justifying his prediction, Brinson writes: "Eli Manning has weapons galore now, with Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram added, but who is protecting him? The defense was very good last year but also inconsistent. That could catch up with the Giants this year."

What is not explained is how a defense that finished in the top 10 overall, in the top three in fewest points allowed and top three in rushing yards per game allowed is "inconsistent," but that's a subject for another time. 

Rather, a more legitimate concern about the number of Giants wins in 2017 might focus more on the schedule, which includes four games against teams coming off bye weeks, the most in the NFL, per Paul Schwartz of the New York Post.

Schwartz also pointed out the Giants have a six-day turnaround against the Philadelphia Eagles making for a grand total of 22 fewer days of rest than their opponents.

Toss in the cross-country flights, none of which were grouped back-to-back to make things easier, and it would be hard to blame the Giants if they run out of steam in their quest to top last year's 11-win season.

Still, figure the Giants will steal a game or two they're not supposed to win, which should put them over .500 in 2017, though by how much remains to be seen. 

Patricia Traina covers the New York Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information were obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced.