Boston Red Sox: Trade Deadline Predictions with 2 Weeks to Go

The Boston Red Sox have already made the biggest trade for their 2017 championship campaign.

Before expecting a major splash before July 31's non-waiver deadline, remember that they ransacked a once-deep farm system to attain Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox last winter. While they received the American League Cy Young Award front-runner, they parted with premier prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.

They also gave the San Diego Padres a package led by Manuel Margot for Craig Kimbrel before the 2016 season. Those two squads conducted business again last summer, when Boston sent Anderson Espinoza to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz.

Red Sox fans, therefore, should not expect more blockbusters this month. That also doesn't mean president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will stand pat. Instead of clearing their minor league cupboard, he should extend locate cost-effective upgrades to maintain their 3.5-game lead in the American League East. 

Let's look ahead with predictions for how the Red Sox will handle the upcoming trade deadline.

They Won't Trade Rafael Devers or Jason Groome

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Top prospect Rafael Devers is more likely to receive a late-season promotion than get traded before the deadline.

Dombrowski has already used an elite farm system to construct a contender. Home-grown stars Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi headline the lineup while other elite young talent got shipped out of town for pitching upgrades.

As a result, Boston's farm dropped to No. 21 in Joel Reuter's post-draft rankings on Bleacher Report. Baseball America credited them with three top-100 prospects (Rafael Devers, Jason Groome and Michael Chavis) in its midseason rankings, and only one should be available this summer.

Chavis, who hit 21 home runs in High-A and Double-A this season, is expendable since he and Devers both play third. Devers, their lone elite prospect remaining, is too important to Boston's future—and perhaps immediate plans if it can't find a major league upgrade at the hot corner—to move.

Groome, a towering 18-year-old lefty drafted in the first round last year, is unpolished but carries immense upside.

In a June radio interview with WEEI, via MassLive.com's Jen McCaffrey, Dombrowski expressed reluctance to move his top hitting and pitching talents.

"Our farm system has played well for us, but we're not really looking to trade our premium guys," Dombrowski said. "It's not that you're not going to trade players, but guys like Devers and Groome, who are a couple names that come to mind right off the bat, are premium guys. You just can't keep trading everybody at some point."

This will take Boston out of the running for star acquisitions, which means nobody should expect Dombrowski to seriously pursue another ace.

They Pass on Adding Starting Pitching

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Boston has been linked to Sonny Gray, but president Dave Dombrowski said he's not seeking any starting pitching.

The Red Sox already added Sale, who is a strong second half away from becoming the rotation's third Cy Young Award winner alongside David Price and Rick Porcello. Pomeranz has notched a 3.60 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 90 innings, and Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to rejoin the team on Monday, according to the Boston Herald's Stephen Hewitt.

In other words, the rotation is fine. Barring injuries, Boston has no reason to pursue more starting pitching.

Nevertheless, sources told Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan in late June that the Red Sox are "keen" for Sonny Gray, whom they sent talent evaluators to watch. As a 27-year-old under team control, the Oakland Athletics righty won't be cheap.

Given their strong rotation and pillaged farm system, moving Devers or Groome for Gray would make little sense. With a healthy Rodriguez, they'd have no room for everyone.

It also appears to merely be a smokescreen. Per an Associated Press report, via ESPN.com, Dombrowski definitively dismissed the notion of seeking another starter.

“We’re not looking for starting pitching,” Dombrowksi said before Saturday's game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

At this juncture, there's no reason to doubt his claim. As is, their rotation is already among baseball's strongest. If anything, the Red Sox will scour the market for relief pitching.

They Seek Cheaper Bullpen Upgrades

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The Red Sox reportedly have their sights set on Philadelphia Phillies reliever Pat Neshek.

The Red Sox have frequently placed a premium on relief pitching. Before acquiring Kimbrel, they obtained Carson Smith from the Seattle Mariners following a breakout campaign. Last winter, they dealt Travis Shaw—who would be the perfect solution to their third-base distress—to the Milwaukee Brewers for Tyler Thornburg.

While Kimbrel sports a 0.54 WHIP and 0.78 fielding independent pitching (FIP), neither Smith nor Thornburg has thrown a single pitch this season. While the latter is out for the season, the former is working his way back.

Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Red Sox are cooling their reliever search "until they get a better read on what they have" in the recovering Smith, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year. 

Touting MLB's third-best bullpen ERA (3.08), they should hardly be desperate for help. Yet Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Robby Scott and Fernando Abad won't terrify opponents during a playoff series, so an insurance piece wouldn't hurt.

The Smith and Thornburg deals should leave Dombrowski apprehensive enough to look elsewhere from Brad Hand, Addison Reed and David Robertson. Pat Neshek, a 36-year-old on an expiring contract, is the type of addition he should instead target.

They're reportedly doing that. According to WEEI.com's Rob Bradford, Boston has "some keen interest" in Neshek, who represented the Philadelphia Phillies in the All-Star Game after accruing a 1.27 ERA. 

Despite his age and contract, Neshek still may spark a bidding war. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo said the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals have also scouted the sidearmer along with the Red Sox. 

If the price skyrockets, Boston can try to buy low on David Phelps or see if Mike Minor, Jerry Blevins, Jim Johnson or Ryan Madson come any cheaper. Or perhaps it can instead obtain Joaquin Benoit from Philadelphia.

Look for the Red Sox to land one of those guys for a mid-level prospect or two. 

They Won't Sacrifice Defense for an Offensive Catcher Upgrade

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Catcher Sandy Leon has hit well after a poor April.

Boston's catchers have collectively hit six home runs with a 71 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), MLB's seventh-worst mark. Despite receiving middling production at the position, there's no scent of an upcoming move.

For starters, there are few answers on the trade market. Perhaps the Texas Rangers consider shopping Jonathan Lucroy, but they're only three games behind Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild-card spot. Veteran catchers Rene Rivera, Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Ellis wouldn't provide any extra offense.

Acquiring Alex Avila would certainly jolt the lineup, but the Detroit Tigers slugger would cost them behind the plate.

Although Christian Vazquez is hitting a paltry .267/.303/.358, Baseball Prospectus grades him among the game's elite pitch framers. Sandy Leon, also an above-average receiver behind the plate, has batted a respectable .273/.328/.427 after an abysmal April.

Avila, meanwhile, is Baseball Prospectus' ninth-worst defensive catcher in terms of Fielding Runs Above Average, a metric in which Lucroy surprisingly ranks last. Considering the prospects Dombrowski must surrender in order for Tigers general manager Al Avila to trade his son, Boston is better off building around pitching and defense.

Besides, there's a much more pressing need the Red Sox must address before flipping the calendar past July.

They Fix Third Base Woes by Acquiring Todd Frazier

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Frazier would provide Boston with power at a position where it needs an upgrade.

No prominent AL contender has a bigger weakness than Boston's third base debacle. Their 61 wRC+ represents MLB's second-worst mark, and the Philadelphia Phillies at least have an excuse to keep playing the 24-year-old Maikel Franco.

Tzu-Wei Yin offered a brief salvation before the All-Star break by batting .333/.435/.436 in 47 plate appearances. Yet the 5'9", 155-pound infielder who skipped Triple-A is better served as utility depth than an everyday starter. 

And Red Sox fans would rather not be reminded of Pablo Sandoval, who registered minus-0.4 WAR in 32 games before landing on the disabled list. The Red Sox need an upgrade, even if that means extending Devers a trial run.

Acquiring a veteran is the more likely path. Yet Boston's options are dwindling. Even if the Toronto Blue Jays shop Josh Donaldson, they likely won't ship him to a division foe. Just 1.5 games away from a playoff spot, the Kansas City Royals will probably ride out the season rather than sell upcoming free agent Mike Moustakas.

The Red Sox are interested in acquiring Martin Prado from the Miami Marlins, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale, but the 33-year-old with a devilish .666 OPS won't remedy anything.

David Freese would be OK, but a World Series contender probably wants to fill a cavernous hole with someone better than OK. And that's where Todd Frazier comes into play.

A team with 92 home runs could sorely use the Chicago White Sox infielder's pop. Although he doesn't hit for much contact, the 31-year-old has belted 16 homers—which would tie Mookie Betts for the Red Sox's lead—with a 14.6 walk percentage and 107 wRC+. 

His strengths makes him desirable for a lineup that can use a big bopper, and his flaws make him affordable for an organization which already gave Chicago its elite prospects last winter.

Dombrowski could kill two birds with one stone by also attaining reliever Anthony Swarzak, who posted a 2.41 ERA during a breakout first half.

The Yankees should also vie for Frazier's services; look for the Red Sox to make him their biggest deadline acquisition.

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.