MLB Metrics 101: The Real 2017 All-Star Teams According to the Stats
The American League and National League All-Star teams for 2017 will be announced Sunday. If you're only interested in who will make the cut, that's all you need to know.
Who should make the cut, however, is a task for Bleacher Report's MLB Metrics 101 series.
Hello and welcome back. This week's topic is what the 2017 AL and NL All-Star teams should look like. Here are the ground rules:
- 34-man rosters for each team, complete with starters, reserves and pitchers
- Healthy players only
- Minimums of 40 games for position players and 10 starts for starting pitchers
- Stats for the 2017 season only
That last bullet point is the most important one. For more on how that's going to be handled, read on.
Methodology
1 of 8
There are dozens upon dozens of stats you can look at to determine which players are having good seasons. But there's only one that's a handy catch-all.
You guessed it: wins above replacement.
Baseball Reference WAR is the standard go-to around these parts. It's largely similar to FanGraphs WAR, save for a couple key differences: It uses defensive runs saved rather than ultimate zone rating for defense, and it judges pitchers on a straightforward combination of runs allowed and innings pitched.
Granted, WAR isn't perfect. But the fact that it's all-encompassing isn't its only advantage. Another is that it allows for the total value of a team to be narrowed down to a single number. That's useful in this context.
Otherwise, the only other need-to-know information concerns how the rosters break down:
- Starting lineups include nine players for the AL, and eight (minus a DH) for the NL.
- Reserves (12 AL, 13 NL) include two catchers, one backup each for the other seven positions, plus wild-card spots to be filled by the best players still standing.
- Pitching staffs include seven starting pitchers and six relief pitchers.
There will be instances of two players having the same WAR. In those instances, the nod will to go whichever player offers a clear advantage. It could be a superior bat or glove. Or, in the case of pitchers, superior peripherals.
All stats within are current through play on Tuesday, June 27. Let's get to it.
American League Starters
2 of 8
| C | Alex Avila | 2.4 |
| 1B | Logan Morrison | 2.4 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | 3.5 |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez | 2.6 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 3.6 |
| LF | Justin Upton | 2.7 |
| CF | George Springer | 3.0 |
| RF | Aaron Judge | 4.8 |
| DH | Corey Dickerson | 3.1 |
Per the most recent voting update, fans want to see Salvador Perez behind the plate, Eric Hosmer at first base, Miguel Sano at third base and Nelson Cruz at designated hitter for the AL All-Star team.
On all these fronts, they're going against the numbers.
There's nothing complicated going on with Alex Avila at catcher and Corey Dickerson at DH. With a 1.026 OPS, Avila's offense has been flat-out ridiculous by catcher standards. Dickerson's .958 OPS is puny by comparison, but it's better than Cruz's .878 OPS.
Logan Morrison and Jose Ramirez, on the other hand, have more well-rounded value. Morrison has been hot with a .926 OPS and 22 home runs, and he has also been solid on defense. Ramirez has a .940 OPS with 12 homers, nine stolen bases and consistent defense.
Elsewhere, it hurts that two of the AL's leading center fielders (Mike Trout and Aaron Hicks) are sidelined with injuries. But George Springer is a darn good fallback. He has a .926 OPS and 23 homers, and he is plenty capable defensively.
There otherwise aren't any surprises here.
Jose Altuve is in his fourth season as a superstar. Justin Upton is as good as it gets in a shallow pool of left fielders. Literally and figuratively, Aaron Judge is the biggest thing in baseball right now.
National League Starters
3 of 8
| C | Buster Posey | 3.0 |
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 4.2 |
| 2B | Josh Harrison | 2.5 |
| 3B | Justin Turner | 3.5 |
| SS | Zack Cozart | 2.9 |
| LF | Marcell Ozuna | 2.9 |
| CF | Charlie Blackmon | 2.1 |
| RF | Bryce Harper | 2.6 |
There are eight spots to fill here, and the numbers are with the fans on five of them.
Buster Posey should indeed be behind the plate. Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Blackmon and Bryce Harper should indeed be in the outfield. As long as Zack Cozart comes off the disabled list before the break as expected, the offensive and defensive edges he has on Corey Seager should put him at shortstop.
As far as the other four spots go, there's at least one that should be a no-brainer.
There's a ridiculous amount of star power in the race for the NL's first base gig. But with NL-leading marks in OPS (1.041) and WAR, Paul Goldschmidt has a comfortable lead numbers-wise.
Justin Turner is another not-so-controversial selection. He was an under-the-radar star between 2014 and 2016. Now he's leading MLB in batting average (.385) and on-base percentage (.469).
Josh Harrison is a tougher sell. Especially in light of how Daniel Murphy is still hitting everything in sight.
However, Harrison is a fine example of a player who would have been underappreciated in a time before WAR. He has an .838 OPS with nine homers and nine steals and is providing extra value with strong defense.
As Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle put it to MLB.com's Adam Berry, Harrison "plays the game with his heart outside his chest."
.png?w=256)
American League Bench
4 of 8
| C | Gary Sanchez | 2.0 |
| C | Salvador Perez | 1.5 |
| 1B | Justin Smoak | 2.3 |
| 2B | Jed Lowrie | 2.3 |
| 3B | Evan Longoria | 2.1 |
| SS | Andrelton Simmons | 3.1 |
| LF | Brett Gardner | 2.2 |
| CF | Lorenzo Cain | 2.5 |
| CF | Kevin Kiermaier | 2.4 |
| RF | Mookie Betts | 3.2 |
| RF | Avisail Garcia | 2.9 |
| RF | Steven Souza Jr. | 2.4 |
This is where Salvador Perez gets his due, even if the WAR leaderboard for AL catchers shows that Martin Maldonado has an equally strong claim for his spot.
Maldonado probably is a better option on defense, as Perez has weaknesses (pitch framing chief among them) that undermine his Gold Glove reputation. But his bat is simply too good to ignore this year. With an .843 OPS and 15 home runs, he's well on his way to a career-best offensive season.
There otherwise aren't any housekeeping items here. And as a whole, it's a good bench.
Gary Sanchez, Justin Smoak, Avisail Garcia and Steven Souza Jr. pack big bats. Evan Longoria and Andrelton Simmons are excellent defensive infielders. Kevin Kiermaier is an excellent defensive outfielder. Brett Gardner, Lorenzo Cain and Mookie Betts, last year's AL MVP runner-up, can do a bit of everything.
Easily the biggest surprise, meanwhile, is Jed Lowrie.
The 33-year-old doesn't have an All-Star pedigree, as he's spent the bulk of his career as a versatile yet injury-prone infielder. But now he's healthy and clicking with an .834 OPS and an AL-high 25 doubles.
National League Bench
5 of 8
| C | Tyler Flowers | 1.9 |
| C | Willson Contreras | 1.8 |
| 1B | Joey Votto | 3.2 |
| 1B | Ryan Zimmerman | 2.5 |
| 2B | Scooter Gennett | 1.8 |
| 3B | Anthony Rendon | 3.3 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 3.0 |
| 3B | Jedd Gyorko | 2.8 |
| 3B | Eugenio Suarez | 2.6 |
| SS | Corey Seager | 2.9 |
| LF | Cody Bellinger | 2.5 |
| CF | Ender Inciarte | 2.0 |
| RF | Giancarlo Stanton | 2.0 |
Cutting right to the chase: The National League has way too much star power at first base this season.
Nonetheless, Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman do rise to the top. They're two of the National League's very best hitters, with the only real difference between the two being Votto's superior defense.
For putting up a 1.209 OPS and 2.6 WAR in only 37 games, Freddie Freeman at least deserves a shoutout. But that's not enough games to make the cut here. Besides, it's still not clear whether he'll be back from a broken wrist before the All-Star break.
Third base is another loaded position. So much so that it's jarring not to see Kris Bryant, Jake Lamb or Travis Shaw pictured here. But it's no secret that Nolan Arenado is a superstar. And give credit to Anthony Rendon, Jedd Gyorko and Eugenio Suarez, who are having well-rounded seasons.
The rest of the NL's bench is a mixed bag of usual and unusual suspects. If there's a big surprise, though, it's that Scooter Gennett, not Murphy, made the cut to be Harrison's backup at second base.
There actually isn't much of an offensive difference between the two, however. Even outside of his four-homer game, Gennett has been hot. He's also been a capable defender at multiple positions, while Murphy has been downright bad with minus-10 defensive runs saved at second base.
That does seem a little too harsh, but it's not unbelievable. Murphy has been a bad defender for years. And at 32 years old, he's definitely past his athletic prime.
American League Pitchers
6 of 8
| SP | Jason Vargas | 4.0 |
| SP | Chris Sale | 3.5 |
| SP | Yu Darvish | 3.4 |
| SP | Ervin Santana | 3.4 |
| SP | Marcus Stroman | 2.6 |
| SP | Luis Severino | 2.6 |
| SP | Michael Fulmer | 2.5 |
| RP | Craig Kimbrel | 2.1 |
| RP | Andrew Miller | 2.1 |
| RP | Joe Kelly | 1.6 |
| RP | Mike Minor | 1.6 |
| RP | Chris Devenski | 1.5 |
| RP | Mychal Givens | 1.4 |
According to WAR, it's Jason Vargas and not Chris Sale who should start for the AL in the All-Star Game.
Because Sale has stronger peripherals (namely an AL-high 155 strikeouts) and has pitched more innings, that doesn't quite feel right. However, Vargas' AL-best 2.29 ERA shouldn't be downplayed. That's evidence that he's making a smoke-and-mirrors approach work without help from Lady Luck.
"I call him Dr. Vargas, making a house call," Kansas City Royals broadcaster Rex Hudler told B/R's Danny Knobler. "He's a precision doctor. He cuts and scalpels. Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine would be proud. Having faced guys like that, they're a pain to hit against."
With Dallas Keuchel (3.3 WAR) on the disabled list, there's room for only one of two pitchers in the AL with 2.5 WAR: Michael Fulmer and Carlos Carrasco.
Fulmer is an easy pick. He's worked 93 innings to Carrasco's 90.2 innings and has a better ERA (3.29 vs. 3.67) and a lower OPS against (.621 vs. .678).
Elsewhere, that's some bullpen.
Craig Kimbrel and Andrew Miller might be the two best relievers in baseball right now. In handling both dominance (2.33 ERA) and a heavy workload (46.1 innings), Chris Devenski is a real throwback. Joe Kelly brings the heat. Mychal Givens has a history of slaying right-handed batters. And Mike Minor is establishing himself as a slayer of left-handed batters.
National League Pitchers
7 of 8
| SP | Max Scherzer | 4.3 |
| SP | Gio Gonzalez | 3.3 |
| SP | Robbie Ray | 3.2 |
| SP | Clayton Kershaw | 3.0 |
| SP | Ivan Nova | 3.0 |
| SP | Zack Greinke | 2.9 |
| SP | Carlos Martinez | 2.8 |
| RP | Corey Knebel | 2.3 |
| RP | Archie Bradley | 2.2 |
| RP | Pat Neshek | 1.9 |
| RP | Greg Holland | 1.8 |
| RP | Felipe Rivero | 1.8 |
| RP | Kenley Jansen | 1.6 |
Vargas vs. Sale for AL All-Star starter? Debatable.
Max Scherzer for the NL's All-Star starter? Not at all debatable.
Even if you don't buy into the not-at-all-controversial notion that Scherzer is now the best pitcher in baseball, he's certainly been the best this season. He leads everyone in innings (113.2), ERA (2.06) and OPS against (.520). That's a nice little nutshell of utter dominance.
“The guy’s different, man,” Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon told Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post. “He’s just a freak.”
A few spots down the list, Carlos Martinez has done well to separate himself from a jumbled pack of top NL starters. He hit a rough patch in April. But in 11 starts since May, he has a 2.20 ERA.
There technically is a battle for the final spot in the bullpen, as both Kenley Jansen and Chris Rusin have 1.6 WAR. However, that's an easy call. Rusin may have 44 innings to Jansen's 32.2 innings, but Jansen has a 0.83 ERA and an otherworldly 52-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Along with Jansen, Corey Knebel and Greg Holland are also excellent closers. Archie Bradley is the NL's answer to Devenski. Pat Neshek slays righties. And Felipe Rivero throws gas and slays lefties.
Which Team Would Have the Edge?
8 of 8
The American League's roster adds up to 89.3 WAR. The National League's roster adds up to 90.1 WAR.
That's a small advantage, and the picture can indeed be changed by rearranging the roster requirements. If the pitching staffs were strictly the 13 best pitchers in each league, for example, the AL would gain a 93.8 to 93.0 advantage.
The rosters that have been chosen, however, are certainly more coherent teams of players. And the National League having a slight edge does make sense on an intuitive level.
If for no other reason than this one: Some of the American League's best players are hurt. The NL is really only missing Freeman. The AL is missing an MVP (Trout), a Cy Young winner (Keuchel) and a big-time breakout star (Hicks). That's a good chunk of All-Star talent that can't play in the All-Star Game.
Of course, all this will be academic as soon as the actual rosters are announced Sunday. They're going to be great teams, but probably not the best possible teams.
But that's OK. The All-Star Game used to count. It doesn't count anymore. Might as well have fun with it.
Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
