NFL Week Six Spread Winners: Strong Plays On Strong Home Teams

Thomas Moreland@NFLMIKEESenior Writer IOctober 14, 2009

NEW ORLEANS - OCTOBER 04:  Darren Sharper #42 of the New Orleans Saints celebrates after defeating the New York Jets 24-10 at the Louisana Superdome on October 4, 2009 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

See the guy in this picture? If your name is Eli Manning, you might want to avoid throwing the ball in his direction this weekend.

Your premier game in the NFL in Week Six will be the New Orleans Saints at 4-0 at home, taking on the 5-0 New York Giants.

I like the Saints at home in this game. They are favored by three and a half points, but wait til Saturday. And because of plenty of New York action, this line should be a field goal.

At the worst, New Orleans will win this game by three and you get a tie. I think Drew Brees, along with some punishing running by Thomas, Bush, and Bell will get the job done.

Plus, the New Orleans' pass defense and ability to bother Eli's passing game should help New Orleans win this home game. After all this great analysis, the Giants will probably win, but I will go with my first impulse on this one, and take the Saints.

Cincinnati should have an emotional letdown after this week—with their big win against Baltimore—and faces a dangerous offense, who is undoubtedly angry about getting stopped three times in a row on the one yard line.

Houston gets a whopping four and a half points, and I like the upset outright for Houston to even win this game. Yes, Cincinnati, you've been lucky, and I think it catches up to you this week.

The Packers are at home against the Lions. This is a rivalry and division game. Detroit played the Steelers and only lost by eight. The Packers are favored by 131/2 points?

This seems like too many and I will take the Lions and the points. Call me crazy.

The Vikings are at home against the angry, leave the ground like a missile, Ray Lewis and the Ravens. After giving up more than 100 yards to a rusher on the ground for the first time in 35 games. Look for that trend to continue with Adrian Peterson.

Once the ground game is established, Brett Favre will carefully dissect these under-achievers at home in Minnesota. Easier than a pass in a Wrangler commercial. Vikings win by more than three.

The Panthers travel to Tampa Bay, after winning against Washington late in the game last week. It was a good comeback, and this good play and new confidence should spill over into this week against a horribly coached team with no direction.

Oh, and the players are not that great, either. This is probably Tampa Bay's last chance to win a game this season, looking at the schedule later down the road. Carolina is favored by three and a half points. Take the Panthers, unless you're a huge risk taker, and like to lose.

Here's a good one: Washington is favored to win over Kansas City by six and a half points. I think Kansas City has a shot at winning the game, period.

The Jags are favored by nine and a half points against the Rams. When, if ever, have you seen a team favored by almost 10 points, after a 41-0 loss? That's how bad the Rams are. Take Garrard, Sims-Walker—who should play—and Maurice Jones Drew in this one.

The Steelers are at home against a passer who won the starting job, completing two out of 14 passes, for a 6-3 win, over hapless Buffalo. Take the Steelers by the 14 1/2 points. You can't really expect much from Cleveland in this game.

This game should be just like the Giants/Oakland last week.

Seattle is at home, favored by two and a half points against division rival Arizona. Has Seattle improved that much, and Arizona digressed so quickly? I think not. I like Kurt Warner and his host of receivers to keep Seattle off guard and force them to play catch up.

Here is the no-brainer game of the week: Philadelphia plays Oakland in Raiderland. And I can't imagine the abuse the Raiders will take when they fall behind at home, quickly. This might be a shut-out by the Eagles' defense, and I know they can score 21-28 points on this team easily. The line is 14 1/2.

Who can cover this week easier? Pittsburgh or Philadelphia? That's a better bet than trying to take Cleveland or Oakland. But, be careful Eagles. They have a coach who may run out on the field and punch you in the facemask.

The Jets are home against Buffalo. Angry Jets and bummed out Terrell Owens mean the Jets win this game by 14 at least. The spread is nine and a half for God knows what reason. I guess the division game makes the Bills play harder...like they did in Miami

New England is home against Tennessee, and they are favored by 9 1/2 points. I keep thinking Tennessee has some pride and is better than their record, and I keep losing this pick.

I surrender. I will only pick the Titans against weak teams for the rest of the season. We may see Vince Young in the second half, which will mean Kerry Collins's career is over and the Titans are down by 20. Take the Patriots and give them 10 points.

Atlanta traveled to San Francisco and nearly cause Mike Singletary to have a stroke. Atlanta is now at home, after a big game on the road. Serious consideration is given to the Falcons to compete for the Super Bowl, along with Minnesota and New Orleans in the NFC. Take the Falcons by three and a half.

Did I leave out the Giants and Philadelphia? Alright, they are pretty good, too. We're not going to worry about the NFC West making it to the Super Bowl this season.

On Monday Night Football, San Diego is at home against Denver. These teams hate each other, so I expect San Diego to stay in this game. What's totally bizarre is that the 2-2 Chargers are favored over the 5-0 Broncos by 4 1/2 points.

What kind of Kool-aid are the oddsmakers drinking? People in Denver must be mortgaging their houses to bet on this game. I have the Chargers to actually beat Denver in this game, but the spread is worrisome.

But think back to last season...

Who went to the playoffs?

Are the oddsmakers all smoking something really, really good? Are Gates and Rivers, along with Vincent Jackson, all going to go off and get more than 40 points.

Can Orton score enough points on the sometimes no-defense-at-all Chargers? I will take the Chargers, mainly because Vegas always gets this stuff right. It seems ridiculous to favor a 2-2 team over the 5-0 Broncos. That why I'll take the Chargers. Something's weird about this matchup.

Currently, I am 42 and 34 against the line and 49-27 straight-up with no points. Last season I finished 70 games over 500, with no points. Upsets and some badly picked upsets that did not happen have me behind my usual torrid pace.

Still, I am getting the feel of the league with every passing week, and I expect this to be a good week.

Thomas[ NFL Mikee ]Moreland.


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