Ranking Premier League Managers by Job Security After 2016/17 Season
Monday's Championship playoff final, in which Huddersfield Town triumphed over Reading on penalties, rubber-stamped the Premier League's 2017-18 participants.
The Terriers join Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion as the top tier's newcomers and will now make the trips to Anfield, Old Trafford and more that many players only dream of.
With everything set, it's time to take an early look at how stable each club's situation is heading into the summer and, in particular, how safe each manager's job looks.
We've ranked each manager by job security. Deciding the order was tough, but the key questions are: How likely is the manager in question to be fired if things start going badly, how much credence do they carry following the 2016-17 campaign, and what kind of situation are they in—calm, like Bournemouth, or volatile, like Watford?
Unranked: Managerless Crystal Palace
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Sam Allardyce left his post as Crystal Palace manager earlier this month, and the club are yet to appoint a new one. That means they're unrankable at this stage.
19. Slaven Bilic, West Ham
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Slaven Bilic has had two contrasting seasons at West Ham United. The first was brilliant, a campaign in which the Hammers tussled with the big boys and finished high up in the league, but the second was almost the complete opposite.
Allowances can be made for the poorer one—the Dimitri Payet saga unsettled everyone, and the stadium move was predictably tough. But in March, reports, such as this one from Jon West of the Daily Star, suggested he was close to the exit door, and he's had to battle back to a position of debatable strength.
This summer's transfer window is important for the Croatian.
18. Chris Hughton, Brighton
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Chris Hughton faces the same task every recently promoted manager does: add the requisite quality to the squad to keep the team up, but don't mess with the chemistry so heavily it destroys what has already been built.
While he has built up a deserved amount of kudos with the Brighton board and owner thanks to his Championship success, his record at Premier League level is not brilliant, and he's got some proving of his own to do in the top tier.
If things were to start poorly, does he have a CV that suggests he's the right man to fix things?
17. Marco Silva, Watford
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Marco Silva did himself proud as manager of Hull City, taking over what many considered to be a lost cause and doing his best. The Tigers gained 21 points during his 18 games in charge; continue on that track for a full season and you'd be well clear of relegation.
But Silva has taken the job at Watford, a club famed for hiring and firing managers. Fans will hope he can stabilise things, and there's a good chance he will...but it's a case of having to see it to believe it.
16. Paul Clement, Swansea City
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Paul Clement kicked Swansea City into gear, and if he can add a dash of quality in select areas, they could well set themselves up for a season in which the only thing they battle, pleasingly, is mid-table mediocrity.
But much of this ranking is about imagining what happens if things take a turn for the worst, and the fact the Swans sacked two managers in 2016-17 only to eventually land on Clement tells you how proactive the board can be when it comes to achieving safety.
15. Craig Shakespeare, Leicester City
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Leicester City's form under Craig Shakespeare was fantastic. Bar the anomalous, strange defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the final week of the season, they were essentially unstoppable at home and ended up safe from relegation by a big margin. They also beat Sevilla in the Champions League and gave Atletico Madrid a good game.
But if Shakespeare gets the job on a full-time basis—and that's yet to be confirmed—then he'll have a first pre-season, a first transfer window and a first full calendar to tackle. That leaves much for him to prove to a chairman who did what many deemed "unthinkable" earlier this year in firing Claudio Ranieri.
14. Mark Hughes, Stoke City
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The Stoke City fans aren't particularly happy with Mark Hughes; a quick check on social media during gamedays toward the end of the season brought more than a few #HughesOut calls.
But the board seem reasonably content and will give him another summer to improve the squad. If he could finally fix that central-midfield issue that's held them back for years, that'd curry him some favour with the terraces.
13. Claude Puel, Southampton
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You can slice the Claude Puel argument two ways.
From a negative standpoint, 2016-17 was the first season in almost half a decade in which Southampton did not improve upon their league position from the previous campaign. They also managed just 17 home goals from 19 games, sending the crowd home disappointed on a number of occasions.
But Puel was also unlucky. He's the first manager in a while not to have been given near-like-for-like replacements for stars sold, the club played an incredible number of games, and Virgil van Dijk and Charlie Austin's lengthy injuries made things difficult. Also, they finished eighth!
12. Tony Pulis, West Bromwich Albion
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West Bromwich Albion manager Tony Pulis has never been relegated, and that makes him a middling Premier League chairman's dream. The phrase "a safe pair of hands" was invented for guys like Pulis.
But one thing that makes the powers that be sit up and reassess things is ticket sales, and due to the incredibly drab style the Baggies have been utilising under Pulis' stewardship, there are long-time season-ticket holders opting not to renew for the 2017-18 season.
That, and only that, weakens the Welshman's position a little.
11. Rafa Benitez, Newcastle United
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If 11th seems a little low for Rafa Benitez—the man who has fixed Newcastle United and brought together the fans—then just remember: you're never 100 per cent stable at the St James' Park.
Benitez's patience with owner Mike Ashley has already been tested during his short tenure at the club, and the seemingly constant battle for control over transfers has and will continue to create rifts.
10. Antonio Conte, Chelsea
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The reigning Premier League champion, at 10th? How can this be?
Antonio Conte works for Chelsea Football Club. They've employed 10 full-time, permanent managers in the last 10 years. Among them are Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti.
As rosy as things seem at Stamford Bridge right now, it's possible things take a turn. Mourinho won the title in 2015 and was gone by Christmas; Roberto Di Matteo won the Champions League in 2012 and was fired the following November; Ancelotti finished second after winning the double and departed.
Conte must prove himself every week, and even then, club owner Roman Abramovich still might decide to wield the axe.
9. Ronald Koeman, Everton
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With big money comes big responsibility, and if Everton are plied with the former this summer as expected, the latter will be placed squarely on Ronald Koeman's shoulders.
His goal of closing the gap and gatecrashing the top four might well be made even more difficult by the potential departure of Romelu Lukaku—Bleacher Report's Dean Jones said he is a top target for Conte and Chelsea.
If you make the top 10 in this list, you're probably pretty safe for the time being, but the chances of Koeman launching the Toffees into the Premier League's top four this season seem slim. That makes ninth about right for him.
8. Jose Mourinho, Manchester United
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Jose Mourinho was among the most difficult to place in this list. On face value, eighth seems low, but from seventh up, the word "untouchable" begins springing to mind, and that's not a word you can use to describe the Portuguese's position at Manchester United.
The 2016-17 season was just about a success for Jose; technically speaking, he won three pieces of silverware and qualified for the Champions League—although the route was pretty rocky, and two of those three trophies are often scoffed at by the wider world.
If all of Mourinho's top transfer targets—confirmed by B/R's Dean Jones—are hauled in, perhaps this rank changes by the end of the window.
7. Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool
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According to Paul Joyce of the Times (h/t the Liverpool Echo), Jurgen Klopp is set to be armed with Liverpool's biggest-ever transfer budget this summer, circa €250 million. If that doesn't scream faith, what does?
The German tactician is widely beloved—not just by his own fans, but by most neutrals, too—and has enjoyed an incredibly smooth ride with the media since arriving on Merseyside.
He's earned those calm waters by hauling the Reds to a Europa League final in his first season, then into the Champions League via a fourth-place Premier League finish in his second.
6. Sean Dyche, Burnley
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For Sean Dyche (and two other managers to follow), we introduced a simple test: Would the club in question (Burnley) fire him if they were to get relegated?
The answer regarding Dyche is no.
We can say that because he's been relegated with the Clarets before (in 2015) and retained his job ahead of propelling them back up at the first time of asking. His style of management isn't glamorous, but he has a famed "framework" that achieves results on a budget—and that's what Burnley require.
5. Pep Guardiola, Manchester City
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Pep Guardiola's maiden season in English football was not the complete failure some would have you believe, but there's definite room for improvement at Manchester City. In 2017-18, everyone will be less understanding if his majestic footballing style doesn't take once again.
He's clearly being backed by the board—Bernardo Silva's through the door, and Ederson Moraes is close, per BBC Sport's Simon Stone—and they worked for years to convince him to take up the reins at the Etihad Stadium, so they won't cut the line now.
4. David Wagner, Huddersfield Town
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It's difficult to envision a scenario in which David Wagner is fired by Huddersfield Town. Even if the club ended the campaign bottom with 10 points, it feels like they'd still keep him.
Why? Because the Terriers owe everything to Wagner; he's the reason they overachieved so dramatically in 2016-17 that they ended up getting promoted despite a budget consisting of under £10 million.
Huddersfield were predicted by many to get relegated from the Championship last season, but they managed the opposite. They're already odds-on to go down in 2017-18, but chairman Dean Hoyle knows his side's success is tied directly to Wagner's presence, and he won't chance his arm with another.
3. Arsene Wenger, Arsenal
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Arsene Wenger was armed with a new two-year contract on Wednesday, confirmed by Arsenal on the club website. There's no break clause, paving the way for two more years in the managerial dugout for the Frenchman.
When ranking managers on job security in the past, Wenger has been an automatic, easy selection at No. 1, but in 2016-17, the ice beneath him weakened.
Only an FA Cup victory over Chelsea saved any face, but that feat will be forgotten quickly when the Champions League draw is made later this year...and Arsenal aren't in it.
Wenger's still secure—the board don't want to get rid of him, and he wants to stay. But with "Wenger Out" protests ramping up last season, the pressure is now on.
2. Eddie Howe, AFC Bournemouth
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Eddie Howe passes the same test Sean Dyche and David Wagner do: If things went badly wrong in 2017-18 and AFC Bournemouth ended up getting relegated, you get the impression the club still wouldn't fire him.
That, by definition, is security.
Howe is Bournemouth; Bournemouth is Howe. They go together like peanut butter and jelly, a match that just seems to work. Their footballing ethos is grounded in him, and he rides its waves expertly.
Howe's by no means the perfect manager—his record in the transfer market since achieving promotion, for example, leaves a lot to be desired—but he's the best Bournemouth can attract, and they're well aware of that.
1. Mauricio Pochettino, Tottenham
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Mauricio Pochettino is Tottenham Hotspur's most valuable asset. In spite of Harry Kane's brilliance, Dele Alli's emergence and Christian Eriksen's game-winning ability, it's the Argentinian stood in the dugout who's the most critical piece in this puzzle.
How he deals with a full season at Wembley Stadium will be interesting, and he'll also have another crack at the Champions League, looking to make up for last season's bizarrely terrible effort.
But all signs point toward more success for the Lilywhites under his masterful watch, and perhaps even a trophy if they can go one better in a select few areas.
All statistics via WhoScored.com
