Cavs vs. Warriors, Part 3: B/R's Complete Guide to the 2017 NBA Finals

The long and winding road leading up to the 2017 NBA Finals is finally complete. The rubber match is upon us. 

In 2015, the Golden State Warriors ended their franchise's lengthy title drought by beating LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and the rest of the Cavs got their revenge one year later to earn the first title in their franchise's history. 

Now, it's time for the tiebreaker. Let's get ready to feast. 

How We Got Here

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The Golden State Warriors blitzed through the Western Conference, sweeping their way past the Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs.

The Western Conference Finals was a cakewalk for the Dubs. The Warriors were surely aided by Kawhi Leonard's absence after the San Antonio superstar twisted his ankle on Zaza Pachulia's foot. Dirty or not, it doesn't matter now. Retroactive morality won't change the result.

Even more impressive than the unblemished record: Golden State posted a single-digit margin of victory just twice. In Round 1, Portland only lost Game 3 by six points after leading through three periods, thanks to CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard both breaking the 30-point barrier. The Spurs were on the wrong end of a mere two-point defeat after blowing a 25-point Game 1 lead after Leonard's injury. Utah dropped every game by at least 11 points.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, meanwhile, made things a bit more interesting in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  

First, they swept the Indiana Pacers by a combined 16 points, only winning the opening contest after a missed buzzer-beater attempt from C.J. Miles. The Toronto Raptors didn't pose much of a threat while operating without Kyle Lowry for Games 3 and 4, but the Boston Celtics actually won Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals to prevent both juggernauts from meeting in the Finals undefeated. Of course, Cleveland responded by winning the next two outings by a combined 46 points—just barely more than the 44-point Game 2 victory. 

To put the dual dominance in perspective, the Spurs finished the postseason with the NBA playoffs' No. 3 net rating, outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per 100 possessions. Through the first three rounds of the playoffs, Cleveland and Golden State have net ratings of 16.1 and 16.8, respectively.  

Warriors X-Factor: Klay Thompson

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Even though Klay Thompson is typically billed as one of the Warriors' star players, forming the final leg of a quartet comprised of himself, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green, he's struggled immensely throughout the playoffs.

NBA Math's total points added (TPA) indicates that he's been one of the league's least valuable players, providing less value than all but 10 of the 215 players to log playoff minutes. He's shot just 38.3 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, and the slump has affected the rest of his all-around game. 

But Golden State has still throttled each of its opponents. 

Just imagine if Thompson finally gets going. He has the talent to bounce back with a standout showing in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Adding yet another weapon to the Warriors' never-ending coffers would make that offense verge on unfair. How is Cleveland supposed to allocate enough men to shut down Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry when Thompson is also connecting from the perimeter? 

Thompson will surely be important in this series even if his slump continues. His on-ball defense is spectacular, and Golden State hasn't hesitated to let him match up against Kyrie Irving in previous meetings. Doing so lessens Curry's defensive responsibilities, thereby freeing him up to expend more energy running through screens and earning open three-point attempts. 

If Thompson functions as a two-way stud, which he hasn't been through his first 12 postseason games in 2017, he can tip the scales even further in his team's favor. 

Cavaliers X-Factor: JR Smith

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LeBron James will inevitably post big numbers. He'll get his triple-doubles and probably lead his team in all five major statistical categories for the second consecutive Finals. Kyrie Irving will dazzle in isolation, torturing Golden State's best defenders. Kevin Love will shine on the glass and help space out the court.  

But if Cleveland is going to defend its title successfully, it'll need more sources of offense. 

Channing Frye and Deron Williams pack a shooting punch off the pine, but neither should see enough minutes to serve as the X-factor. That's a role reserved for JR Smith, who finally seems to be working his way back into form after spending much of the regular season rehabbing an injured thumb. 

The athletic sniper hasn't recorded many standout lines during Cleveland's run to the Finals. He's averaged a mere 6.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks, and his postseason scoring high came twice—13 points in both Game 3 against the Indiana Pacers and Game 3 against the Boston Celtics. 

But he could explode at any moment. Smith's game lends itself well to sudden explosions of production. He can thrive both in a spot-up setting and when he's asked to handle the rock and take heavily contested jumpers. He's the rare player who seems to fare better with a defender in his jersey than when he's left wide open. 

Despite the paucity of his contributions, the 31-year-old has still knocked down 48.4 percent of his field-goal attempts and 44.9 percent of his triples. He's just biding his time, waiting for the right moment to break out on the biggest stage. 

Biggest Advantage for Golden State: Defense

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It's easy to view Golden State as an offensive powerhouse. 

With Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, points come in quick and unrelenting bursts. Blink, and you might miss a barrage of three-pointers swishing through the nylon as the Warriors display nearly unmatched spurtability. 

But the Dubs are also a defensive juggernaut. 

During the regular season, they paced the NBA in offensive rating, but they also allowed just 101.1 points per 100 possessions. Only the San Antonio Spurs were stingier (100.9), and the Warriors were well clear of the next squads—the Utah Jazz (102.7) and Atlanta Hawks (103.1)—in the pecking order.

Despite tougher competition in the playoffs (per Basketball Reference, the Warriors had the 22nd-toughest regular-season schedule), the Warriors have been even more impenetrable. Opponents have mustered just 99.1 points per 100 possessions against them, which leaves Golden State well clear of the Milwaukee Bucks (101.5) and the rest of the NBA's 16 postseason representatives.  

How have they done it?

Green could win Defensive Player of the Year, while Durant has done a tremendous job adapting into a versatile stopper capable of corralling ball-handlers on one possession and then protecting the rim on the next. No team is better at switching then recovering to make perfect rotations that allow for contests of every shot. 

Golden State isn't a great team on the defensive glass. It doesn't force an inordinate number of turnovers, and it's sometimes prone to fouling excessively. But good luck getting off a clean look on consecutive possessions. 

Biggest Advantage for Cleveland: LeBron James

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The man who's become his own dynasty often seems like he won't be denied. LeBron James can do everything on the basketball court, and he's playing better than ever while willing the Cleveland Cavaliers to yet another Finals appearance. 

Through the first three rounds, James is averaging a staggering 32.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.4 blocks while shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from downtown. Even more importantly, he's displayed a counter for every type of defense. 

Sag off him, and he'll drain threes in your face (Jae Crowder learned the tough lesson in the Boston series). James hasn't been shy, launching a career-high-matching 5.8 attempts per game from beyond the arc. And yet, that might still be the best option. 

James is a freight train moving toward the rim, capable of putting opposing bigs in foul trouble, racking up and-1 opportunities and easy finishes. But if a defense compresses around at the hoop, he'll hit a teammate with a precision pass. 

Golden State will have to throw a variety of looks his way. Blitzing pick-and-rolls could force the ball out of his hands, though James is plenty capable of splitting the double to find an uncontested lane toward the tin. Golden State will hope Draymond Green and Kevin Durant can occasionally contain his isolation attacks. The Warriors might attempt to shut down the rest of the Cavs while letting James feast in one game, only to come out a few nights later and force him to think like a pass-first point forward. 

And there's a distinct chance none of it could matter.

James is just that good right now. 

Biggest Weakness for Golden State: Possession

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When the Warriors get up a shot, they're undeniably deadly. The same holds true on the other end of the court—no team is better at contesting looks and limiting what the opposition can do with a single possession. 

But the Warriors get into trouble when they're on the wrong end of a possession disparity. 

Stephen Curry gets careless with behind-the-back passes and various unforced errors. He's not the only offender; only seven squads turned the ball over at a higher rate. 

Golden State compounds the issue when they don't own the defensive glass. During the regular season, only the New York Knicks grabbed a lower percentage of available defensive rebounds, which means the Warriors unnecessarily subjected themselves to plenty of second-chance opportunities. 

Tristan Thompson may already be licking his lips, but part of this is by design. Golden State pushes defenders toward the perimeter for tougher contests, leaking out for easier transition plays. That strategy could benefit a Cavaliers team that isn't afraid to crash the offensive boards. 

The Warriors will be the better team on a per-possession basis. But they could be vulnerable if turnovers and second-chance opportunities allow the Cavaliers to rack up far more shooting opportunities during the Finals. 

Biggest Weakness for Cleveland: Defense

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The Cavaliers completed the regular season in a somnambulatory state, counting on their ability to improve their level of play when it mattered most. Nap time ended in the playoffs, as did experimenting with rotations and new half-court sets.

So far, they appear to have completed the mission.

"I mean these guys have been playing into the playoffs deep into June for three years now. It's easy to get bored in the regular season," Cavaliers backup point guard Deron Williams told Bleacher Report's Yaron Weitzman. "The intensity isn't there game in and game out. But now you've got rest, you're not playing back-to-backs, you get to focus on one team and lock in on them. For a team like this, with this many veterans, it sets up perfect for how we're built."

After finishing the regular season ranked No. 22 in defensive rating (108 points allowed per 100 possessions), they trail only the Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks during the postseason (104.6). But closer inspection leads to a bit more cause for concern. 

The Cavaliers have played the Indiana Pacers (No. 15 in offensive rating during the regular season), and they faced the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics while Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas were out for sustained stretches. Through the first 82 games, Toronto would've ranked No. 16 in offensive rating without Lowry (105.9 points per 100 possessions), while the Thomas-less C's would've sat at No. 30 in offensive rating (99). 

Cleveland has undoubtedly improved.

It's just also played a schedule that's left it unprepared for the league's best offense, which now stands between it and earning the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the second consecutive season. Until it shows the schedule wasn't the switch that flipped, defense in general will remain the biggest weakness. 

Key Matchup: LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant

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The two superstars have clashed before, with LeBron James emerging victoriously over Kevin Durant during the 2012 NBA Finals. Now they meet again, and Durant will be looking to earn his first ring while denying his positional rival a fourth. 

On both ends, this should be the matchup to watch. 

Other members of the Warriors will surely check James. Draymond Green will switch onto the four-time MVP rather frequently, while the entire team will be ready to help against his physical drives to the hoop. But it should be Durant who draws the primary assignment, asked to use his length and quickness to negate James' overwhelming strength. 

But perhaps even more importantly, Durant can force James into a different defensive role. 

During the first three rounds, the Cleveland small forward has operated as more of a free safety than anything else. He often cross-matched against Monta Ellis against the Indiana Pacers, then was able to rest while Jae Crowder and DeMarre Carroll served as his natural assignments in the next two series. Sure, he sometimes guarded opposing stars, but he more frequently cheated away from his mark and wreaked havoc as an off-ball terror. 

Durant, should he play well enough as a scorer, can prevent that. If he forces James to stick with him—and it's worth noting the Cavaliers don't have another wing stopper big enough to consistently guard the former scoring champion—it opens up driving lanes that James would otherwise slide in against. 

This isn't a one-way competition. Besting the other on both ends would go a long way for either top-five player. 

Top Moments from the Rivalry

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The Cavaliers and Warriors have piled up memorable moments against one another over the last few years. 

Who could forget Golden State's 15-4 run late in the fourth quarter to force overtime in Game 2 of the 2015 NBA Finals, capped off by a magnificent finger roll from Stephen Curry? What about their 10-0 run to begin the overtime period three nights earlier? 

And one year later, Cleveland stormed back from a 3-1 deficit to spark myriad jokes at Golden State's expense, as well as the franchise's first title. Maybe the most memorable moment was the Kyrie Irving series-clinching jumper you can see above or by clicking on this link. Perhaps it was LeBron James' physics-defying block of Andre Iguodala. 

Even during the regular season, the two teams have provided classics. 

This year, they gave the world some Christmas entertainment as the Cavaliers stormed back in the fourth quarter to drop their rivals by a mere point, despite trailing by 14 in the final period. And once again, it was Irving playing the part of hero with a spinning fadeaway in isolation against Klay Thompson that dropped through the net with 3.4 seconds remaining. 

Now, what's next? 

If the recent history between these two powerhouses is any indication, you won't want to miss anything. 

What's at Stake for Golden State

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The jokes will never end if the Golden State Warriors lose in the Finals again. 

"3-1" refrains have continued throughout the entire follow-up season, and not just in the dark recesses of Twitter. Just imagine what might happen if they add Kevin Durant into the mix, establish themselves as the overwhelming favorites from the start of the year through the first three postseason series, then fall to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers yet again. 

For almost everyone on the roster, a title would mean validation. The sacrifices were all worth it, whether we're talking about Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green taking fewer touches, or David West turning down big money to join the Golden State bench. 

But for one player, the stakes are even higher. 

"I made the 100 percent correct decision, win or lose," Kevin Durant told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears. "I feel like this is the place I was supposed to be. I appreciate everything I've done before this. But I’m here now, and I feel like it's a great spot for me to be. This is where I am supposed to be at this point of my life. I'm taking it on and conquering every part of it. I'm enjoying every single step."

It's easy to say that now. He may really mean it. 

But the ramifications would be rather significant in defeat. His legacy will inevitably take a hit if he joins a 73-win team, replaces Harrison Barnes and then proves unable to avoid the same result that led the team to consider altering the core in the first place.

Whether right or wrong, that take will be unavoidable. 

What's at Stake for Cleveland

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Sometimes it feels like every series is a referendum on LeBron James' legacy. 

The four-time MVP continues to chase after Michael Jordan, and championships go a long way toward swaying the crowd who will always hold up the original G.O.A.T.'s perfect 6-0 record in the NBA Finals. But perhaps even more important than adding another trophy to his collection is avoiding another defeat, since five losses in eight Finals appearances would be an unsightly blemish on an otherwise unimpeachable resume. 

Still, it's not all about James for the Cavaliers. He'll rightly take center stage, but other individuals and the team as a whole will be impacted by the result of the year's final series. 

Kyrie Irving's standing among the all-time greats at his position will only improve if he adds another title to his collection. Kevin Love's career will be even more validated if he again serves as a central figure in a championship quest. Even role-playing veterans such as Deron Williams and Kyle Korver will be rightfully placed on a loftier pedestal after sacrificing to earn some jewelry. 

And as for the team, it'll go down in the basketball annals as a dynastic force if it manages to take down a 73-win juggernaut, then emerge victoriously yet again after the defeated opposition added a top-five player.

Cleveland, which enters Game 1 as the underdog, doesn't have much to lose. But it sure has a lot to gain if it can go back-to-back. 

Prediction

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The numbers would seem to favor the Golden State Warriors. 

While the Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the best offenses in recent NBA history, so too do the Dubs. Except they're also a dominant defensive unit with even more depth than the defending champions' veteran-laden bench. 

The one mitigating factor? LeBron James. 

Betting against the NBA's leading superstar is always a difficult task, and he made doubters regret their decisions after sparking a legendary comeback in last year's Finals. His avenue to a title is just even tougher after Golden State somehow managed to make a 73-win bunch even stronger with the addition of Kevin Durant. 

But still, there's a reason FiveThirtyEight's title odds have the Warriors sitting pretty at 90 percent. They're the superior team from a statistical standpoint, and they should also match up well with Cleveland, given their staggering versatility at so many different positions and ability to dominate with either big or small lineups. 

Expect Golden State to earn its second title in three years. Just don't count on it extending the 12-game postseason winning streak to 16, because James and Kyrie Irving are far too explosive to go down in defeat without first stealing at least one game. 

Prediction: Golden State 4, Cleveland 1

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, ESPN.com or NBA Math and accurate heading into the 2017 NBA Finals.