What Every NBA Lottery Team Should Do If It Wins No. 1 Pick
Scenario: Your favorite NBA lottery team just won this year's No. 1 pick. What should it do?
Should it draft Markelle Fultz out of Washington? Take UCLA's Lonzo Ball? Select Josh Jackson from Kansas?
Might it look to trade the pick for an established star?
The answers to these questions vary by situation. Different teams need different things. Borderline playoff squads are more likely to shop the top choice than a franchise in the early stages of a rebuild. A rotation stocked with guards won't need Ball or Fultz as much as Jackson. And so on.
Odds are irrelevant here. As long as a team has pingpong balls in this race, it is included. If a hypothetical lottery winner should look to trade its pick but is ineligible to deal the selection, the assumption will be that it chooses a player with the intent to flip him for the suggested target.
Remember: The possibilities at No. 1 are finite this late in the year. So this is less about the prospects, and more about the teams and what course of action best fits their immediate and long-term outlooks.
Miami Heat (0.5 Percent): Draft Josh Jackson
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The Miami Heat would typically be candidates to trade their pick, because team president Pat Riley isn't about that life—that life being a rebuilding process. But even he seems more inclined to retool and reinvent from within these days.
“I regret ever making that statement," he said when asked about "pursuing whales" this summer, per the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson. "The collective bargaining agreement is going to dictate a lot of things about free agency. ... Today it’s a lot different than [2010]. Any great player will have to give great pause to walk away from $65 million to $70 million to walk away.”
Free agency isn't the trade market. Maybe the Heat wouldn't pass up the opportunity to dangle the No. 1 pick for a star. But if you're going to come at LeBron James, a rotation assembled around Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and, say, a Jimmy Butler or Paul George won't cut it.
Drafting Josh Jackson continues to let the Heat straddle that line between competing and retooling. He's like Justise Winslow, but one inch taller, and he hits threes. He can orbit around Dragic pick-and-rolls or lead fast breaks as the primary ball-handler. He'll pair nicely with any playmaker on the roster—including free agents James Johnson and Waiters.
Riley can revisit the trade front at a later date if he's set on this iteration of the Heat making immediate noise. He has the cap space to lure a big name, even if he doesn't deem it likely, and Jackson is a can't-miss prospect for a franchise obsessed with defensive do-gooders who switch across multiple positions.
Denver Nuggets (0.6 Percent): Try Trading for Jimmy Butler
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Although the Denver Nuggets' window to win doesn't fall under the "Right Freaking Now" tab, they're at a point where consolidation makes the most sense. They have prospects and cap space in excess—assets they should be using to secure a superstar running mate for Nikola Jokic.
That process is already underway. The Nuggets made a "monster" offer for George at the trade deadline, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chris Haynes, only to have their overtures rebuffed.
Revisiting those talks with the No. 1 pick in hand gets a deal done even if it's against George's wishes. The Pacers are undergoing a slight regime change after Larry Bird stepped down as team president, and his successor, Kevin Pritchard, will see the value of getting a potential franchise cornerstone for a player who will enter free agency in 2018 (player option).
But the Nuggets have to be wary of George's contract situation themselves. They aren't a team that can flip a top pick for a flight risk who has, per ESPN.com's Chris Haynes, already rejected them once.
Butler is the better option. He cannot explore free agency until 2019 (player option), and the Chicago Bulls still haven't committed to a direction. Butler can't soak up time at the 4, but the Nuggets can retain Danilo Gallinari or bait free agents with the chance to play beside Butler and Jokic if they're worried about small-ball combinations.
Attaching the No. 1 pick to salary filler and any prospect not named Jamal Murray should get the Nuggets at the bargaining table without feeling as if they're also getting hosed.
Detroit Pistons (0.7 Percent): Draft Lonzo Ball
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The Detroit Pistons can sell any decision as the correct one.
They solicited suitors for Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline, per The Vertical's Chris Mannix, and selecting Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz allows them to resume that auction without demanding another point guard in return.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a restricted free agent, will probably fetch max offer sheets on the open market, while Stanley Johnson still hasn't learned to sink threes. Jackson insures the Pistons against Caldwell-Pope's departure and Johnson's stunted growth.
Head coach and president Stan Van Gundy engineered this team to contend for playoff spots. Detroit can use this pick, along with contract filler, to scour the chopping block for impact players or stars. (Does Chicago say no to Johnson, Jon Leuer and No. 1 for Butler?)
With Caldwell-Pope and Aron Baynes (player option) set for raises, the Pistons bottom line is about to explode. Remove Baynes from the equation, and it'll still take a small miracle for them to avoid the luxury tax. Van Gundy could decide to trade down for another pick(s) and more cost-effective role players.
Rolling with Ball, out of all these options, represents a happy middle ground. Detroit needs someone who will be comfortable flinging passes to its surplus of scorers without hijacking possessions. Ball should help limit the number of one-on-one sets allocated for Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris and Markieff Morris by feeding them more than Jackson. Ditto for Andre Drummond's post-up addiction.
This would likely spell the end for Jackson's time in the Motor City, but no one the Pistons take absolves them from their salary-cap woes. Someone will have to become collateral damage if they're looking to duck the tax. And if cutting costs isn't an issue, Van Gundy can try bringing Jackson off the bench, as he did for a couple of games during the regular season.
Charlotte Hornets (0.8 Percent): Try Trading for Jimmy Butler
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There are two forces that would drive the Charlotte Hornets into shopping the No. 1 pick.
First and foremost, they don't have the time to wait on a developing prospect. They are the rare team that's built to win now, footing the bill to win now, but not actually winning now.
Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Kemba Walker—their primes are, to varying degrees, in progress. They're also combining to make more than $60 million next season. Unless the Hornets are preparing to tear this thing down to the studs, they don't have time to groom a future star—especially when two of the top three prospects, Ball and Fultz, play their best player's position.
Adding a wing like Butler instantly vaults the Hornets into the Eastern Conference's home-court-advantage conversation. He is a better shooter than Batum and Kidd-Gilchrist and capable of handling the same defensive assignments.
Play Butler next to Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, Walker and pretty much any other big, and the Hornets have a nightmarish small-ball terror—an outside-in offensive cocktail that won't want for defensive chasers.
Prying Butler from the Bulls figures to be an issue. The Hornets don't have a ton of other desirable assets in addition to this hypothetical No. 1 pick. They can offer a 2019 first-rounder and filler. Or maybe Chicago bites on some mix of Williams, Frank Kaminsky and Jeremy Lamb.
Pairing Kidd-Gilchrist with the top selection shouldn't be out of the question. Butler is a stark enough upgrade to spin it.
Oh, and as for the second and final jolt of motivation: Butler plays under the Jordan Brand umbrella. And the Hornets are owned by Michael Jordan. Syncing them up is just good business.
New Orleans Pelicans (1.1 Percent): Try Trading for Jimmy Butler
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Trading the first overall pick would be akin to basketball treason if the New Orleans Pelicans employed only Anthony Davis. He's destroying the league now, but he's just 24. He has time to headline a rebuild next to Ball, Fultz or Jackson.
DeMarcus Cousins? Not so much.
He is ticketed for free agency next summer, and the Pelicans have to make a good second impression. They cost him a five-year super-mega extension by rescuing him from the Sacramento Kings. They can still offer him a fifth year of their own next summer, but ripping away his shot at a Designated Player Extension while asking him to share space with Davis puts the burden of proof on them.
Plus, as a rule of thumb, whenever you have two of the 10 best players in the game, you go for it. And when they're complemented by a fringe-star point guard, in Jrue Holiday, you go for it harder.
Neither Ball nor Fultz fits the bill if the Pelicans, as reiterated ad nauseam, are committed to re-signing Holiday. Even if he leaves, they cannot entrust the balance of their Big Two to a rookie floor general.
Similar to the Hornets, the Pelicans aren't flush with other assets. Most of what they had went to the Kings. But they can combine the player they select—they can't trade the actual pick since their 2018 selection is owed to Sacramento—with a 2020 choice, cap fodder and whatever else Chicago wants in exchange for Butler.
George might end up being the more gettable target. The Pelicans can use the threat of his free agency to lowball the Pacers. But the Nuggets and Boston Celtics will still be able to trounce any package they peddle, and Butler, as a 2-3, fills more of a need than a 3-4 like George.
Dallas Mavericks (1.7 Percent): Draft Markelle Fultz
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If Dirk Nowitzki were, like, five years younger, the Dallas Mavericks would be surefire locks to shop the No. 1 pick. Heck, even with him turning 39 in June, they'll probably think about it.
Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews are already on big-money deals, and Nerlens Noel, a restricted free agent, is "projected" to earn at least $90 million in his next contract, according to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney. Dallas can also carve out a ton of cap space by declining Nowitzki's option and re-signing him at a steep count.
Poach an impact player, use the No. 1 pick to land another and presto: The Mavericks are back in the business of making Western Conference juggernauts uncomfortable.
Except, that's not the smart play. Barnes (24) and Noel (23) are young enough to be faces of the future. Matthews, while 30, will be a free agent next summer (player option) or in 2019. The Mavericks need to play the long game. And, as luck would have it, they're also in the market for a point man.
"We got to get better at point, there's no question," owner Mark Cuban said, per the Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko. "If we can't do it in the draft, we'll look at free agency and see what we can do. Yogi is going to get better. Seth will continue to get better. I'd love to see Nico [Brussino] play some point forward and see how that works. He's probably one of our best passers. We'll have depth, but we have to get that one pass-first point guard. That's what we don't have."
Fultz can be that guy. He has "superstar playmaker" written all over him but can play off Nowitzki and, when he decides to pass, Barnes. He is the only acceptable pick if the Mavericks are blessed by the lottery gods—unless, of course, Stephen Curry gets "F.O.E." tattooed across his forehead and decides his future is best served playing beside his baby bro, Seth Curry.
New York Knicks (5.3 Percent): Draft Markelle Fultz
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Scrolling through the New York Knicks' recent history is a painful exercise for a vast number of reasons. Chief among them: The Orange and Blue's complete and total inability to find a point guard.
"Forty-three players have manned the point position for the Knicks since 2006," The Ringer's Jason Concepcion wrote. "This list of luminaries includes Eddie House (washed), Mardy Collins (Larry Brown loved him, of course), JR's brother Chris Smith (worst player in the NBA), Larry Hughes (I literally forgot about him), Sergio Rodriguez (I was convinced D'Antoni would turn him into a player), Alexey Shved, Sasha Vujacic (still on the team!), and many more."
Concepcion went on to rank the Knicks' 10 best point guards of the last 10 years. Stephon Marbury was No. 1. Jeremy Lin checked in at No. 2. Raymond Felton cracked the top five. Seriously.
It's almost impressive that New York is left, in perpetuity, searching for a point guard who places in the top 30 at his position. Mostly, though, it's sad.
Big-time free agents are smart enough by now to avoid the James Dolan-owned and Phil Jackson-presided Knicks. Drafting one, then keeping him, is the only way they'll bring continuity to the position.
Fultz is the closest they'll get to a sure thing. Immediately, he may not be more triangle-ready than Ball. Overall, though, he doesn't need to freelance on as many possessions. So if he's not the better triangle fit now, he will be later on.
Minnesota Timberwolves (5.3 Percent): Draft Josh Jackson
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There is a roughly 100 percent chance the Minnesota Timberwolves are mentioned as a leading suitor for Butler if they win the No. 1 pick.
A front office executive told The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor in March the Bulls' All-Star wing is "good as gone" this summer, and Minnesota reportedly tried reuniting him with head coach Tom Thibodeau ahead of last year's draft, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chad Ford. Proposals anchored by the top choice should bridge whatever gap existed in previous negotiations.
Yet if there's one thing we learned about the Timberwolves this year, it's that their transition from up-and-comer to patented powerhouse cannot be rushed. They were popular playoff picks leading into this past season but racked up just two more victories (31) than they tallied in 2015-16 (29).
After wrapping 2016-17 as the NBA's youngest team, the emphasis shouldn't be on parlaying a pick into a star. Selecting a player who fits their developmental timeline and satisfies a need is the higher priority.
Jackson addresses some of the Timberwolves' biggest pitfalls head-on. They hovered around the bottom 10 in opponent three-point rate and efficiency during the regular season and need someone to take on assignments LaVine and Wiggins can't. Jackson can chase around 2s, 3s and some 4s without commanding a major number of touches on the offensive end.
Taking the 6'8" 20-year-old also ensures the Timberwolves won't spend as much in free agency to beef up their perimeter defense. They have to worry about paying LaVine and Wiggins either this fall or next summer, and Towns is only one year behind them.
Four seasons of Jackson on a rookie-scale deal beats overpaying a mid-end mercenary to switch locales.
Orlando Magic (8.8 Percent): Draft Lonzo Ball
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If the Orlando Magic have no intention of keeping Elfrid Payton, the soon-to-be 19-year-old Fultz is their guy. But it's hard to make that leap right now.
It's hard to make assertions of any kind on behalf of the Magic. They have yet to replace general manager Rob Hennigan, and the extension-eligible Payton hasn't played his way out of their future. He averaged 14.2 points on 51.3 percent shooting, 8.9 assists and 7.2 rebounds over his final 20 games, during which time Orlando scored like a top-five offense with him on the court. He even knocked down enough of his threes (33.3 percent) to keep defenses half-honest.
Payton is not a player you discard. Nor is he one you build around. But you can draft around him.
Both Ball and Fultz should have the off-ball weaponry to play next to Payton. At 6'6", Ball is the better option to spend more time at the 2, even if he was exposed on defense during the NCAA tournament. Fultz's wingspan is comparable, but Ball is the bouncier prospect, which could translate into some bonus shot-blocking.
There's not enough of a disparity between the two on the offensive side to make the Magic regret this pick. Ball is more likely to inject extra pace into their setup anyway. It'd be different if the Magic were starting from scratch, but they're not. They need a backcourt partner for Payton rather than a replacement, and Ball comes with less overlap.
Philadelphia 76ers (14.7 Percent): Draft Josh Jackson
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Does Philly have the stones to pass on Fultz if it wins the No. 1 pick, which it has a 14.7 percent chance of doing thanks to owning a pick swap with the Kings? Probably not.
Former general manager/author of "The Process"/cult-hero Sam Hinkie is gone, but his best-player-available edict endures. In their first draft without him last June, the Sixers went for skill over need, selecting Ben Simmons instead of Brandon Ingram.
In this case, it just so happens Fultz can wear both hats. The Sixers' top nominal point guard is T.J. McConnell, so Fultz would be the best player available and someone who fills a need.
Unofficially, though, Simmons is Philly's point guard. Head coach Brett Brown told Adrian Wojnarowski as much on The Vertical Podcast with Woj (via Liberty Ballers' Xylon Dimoff).
"When I say 'point guard,' I mean 'point guard,'" he said. "You know, who takes the ball out of bounds, who receives the ball when the ball goes in the basket, who brings it up the floor after a free throw. I'm not talking about Draymond, I'm not talking about LeBron, you know, I'm talking about a point guard. And so I intend on trying this."
Shipping Noel to Dallas hasn't remedied the Sixers' frontcourt logjam. Slotting Simmons at the 1 is a virtual necessity if they want to have room for Joel Embiid, Richaun Holmes, Jahlil Okafor and Dario Saric. Simmons can play the 3, but he'll eat into the power forward minutes if Fultz is monopolizing playing time at point guard.
Jackson simplifies the rotation. He won't take away touches from Embiid or Simmons, is a shooting upgrade over Justin Anderson, plays more defense than Nik Stauskas and becomes cheap insurance if rival suitors overpay Robert Covington in 2018. And if the latter sticks around beyond next season, the long-term defensive ceiling on a Covington-Embiid-Jackson-Simmons quartet is (through) the roof.
Los Angeles Lakers (15.6 Percent): Draft Markelle Fultz
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If the Los Angeles Lakers win the draft lottery, they should first be thankful they didn't lose their pick to the Sixers. Next, they should bask in the knowledge their 2019 selection won't be headed to the Magic.
After that, they should take Fultz.
Grabbing Ball is the sentimental play. He's from Chino Hills, California. He attended UCLA. He told The Vertical's Shams Charania he wants to wear purple and gold. His offensive game is electric enough to make team president Magic Johnson more nostalgic for the Showtime Lakers era.
Still, taking Fultz is cleaner. He's the more complete player, and his offensive style should almost instantly translate to the NBA, as ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton outlined.
"The other thing I'd point to statistically is how effective Fultz was in the pick-and-roll game. Despite playing on a team with poor spacing and few other offensive threats, he averaged 1.01 points per play on pick-and-rolls, which ranked 15th among D-I players with at least 100 such plays, according to Synergy Sports tracking. Iowa State senior Monte Morris is the only NBA prospect who outperformed Fultz in terms of pick-and-roll scoring efficiency.
"Ball finished just 49 plays off pick-and-rolls with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or turnover all season and averaged 0.83 points on those plays. The NBA is a pick-and-roll league, and Fultz fits into that much more easily than Ball."
Ball is more of a pass-first pilot, which comes in handy when he'll be expected to spend time alongside D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. But the Lakers have enough ground-floor projects in Russell, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and Ivica Zubac. A polished pick-and-roll-tested quarterback taps into the convenience factor without sacrificing quality.
And for those wondering: No, the Lakers shouldn't be hocking this pick in exchange for George. If he is, as USA Today's Sam Amick put it in February, "hell-bent" on playing for them, they can preserve cap space to sign him in 2018. Gutting the roster, including this pick, for a soon-to-be free agent who intends to play for you anyway makes zero sense.
Phoenix Suns (19.9 Percent): Draft Josh Jackson
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Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has the Phoenix Suns taking Jackson at No. 2 in his pre-combine mock draft. Moving up one spot shouldn't change their thought process.
Taking Ball or Fultz creates unnecessary headaches. The Suns are already overrun with backcourt talent. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker have the starting lineup on lock, and good luck trying to find a team that's ready to absorb the three years and $43.9 million left on Brandon Knight's deal.
Bringing in another point guard is a tacit commitment to trading Bledsoe. That's not a blasphemous notion on its face. He's 27, and Phoenix is nowhere near ready to compete with the NBA's elite.
At the same time, dealing a fringe-star point guard with two years left on a team-friendly contract to make room for an unproven successor feels reckless. The Suns will be paying at least two other veterans in Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley in addition to Knight. They have designs on doing something soon. Bledsoe gets them closer to their target window than an inbound rookie.
Multiposition three-and-D prospects are increasingly valuable in today's league, and the Suns don't have one. Jackson strengthens a defense that placed 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allowed opponents to shoot a league-worst 38.2 percent from three-point range. His own outside touch is a boon for an offense that neither made nor attempted enough deep balls.
Failing an offer for Bledsoe that blows the Suns away, their draft-day agenda should prioritize fit over everything else. And Jacksons fits. Ball and Fultz do not.
Boston Celtics (25 Percent): Try Trading for Jimmy Butler/Paul George
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Few of the NBA's upper-middle class squads have the assets to do anything other than live in the shadows of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. The Celtics are among the lucky ones.
In fact, they're the luckiest one.
Team president Danny Ainge can keep this pick, take Fultz and try to balance contention with waiting out Cleveland's Eastern Conference reign—an option that balloons in appeal knowing how much it'll cost to re-sign Isaiah Thomas after next season.
But the Celtics didn't max out Al Horford last summer to run in place. Their window of opportunity has, perhaps accidentally, collided with Cleveland's, and they have an obligation to work within it—now more so than ever.
Leading into this summer, they can manufacture max or near-max cap space, sign a high-end name and then cobble together a blockbuster trade constructed around this year's Brooklyn Nets pick, along with some mix of Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown, Jae Crowder and other future selections. That flexibility won't be there forever.
Bradley, Thomas and Marcus Smart (restricted) will each be due new contracts in 2018. As their below-market deals expire, so too will the Celtics' capacity to morph into a superpower.
Boston sniffed around Butler and George at the trade deadline, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. Those talks should resume over the offseason, with this pick, or the player it results in, serving as primary bait for either All-Star. (George should be considerably cheaper if the Celtics are confident they can fend off the Lakers in 2018.)
Standing pat through this season was fine. The odds of the Celtics overthrowing the Cavaliers without getting a full training camp to incorporate Butler or George were beyond slim. But patience is no longer a luxury they enjoy. It's time they consolidate their stable of options into another star—and winning the lottery won't change that one bit.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Team salary and player contract information via Basketball Insiders.
