Week Seven College Football Picks: Texas-Oklahoma the Week's Top Matchup

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The inputs to the 10,000 simulations of these games are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Game of the Week: No. 5 Texas 26 vs. No. 14 Oklahoma 23

Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have had very different starts to the 2009 season. Defending Heisman Trophy winner Bradford's hopes have been dashed by injury, yet a major victory over rival Texas would keep two-loss Oklahoma's BCS hopes alive.

McCoy remains in the Heisman running and could become the lead candidate, not to mention solidify Texas' national title aspirations, if the Longhorns can win against the Sooners.

We're just at the midpoint of the college football season, but Saturday's matchup between Texas and Oklahoma could have an impact on nearly every major race in the country.

The Longhorns-Sooners matchup was our Game of the Week for Week Seven before the season began, but both teams now enter the game with worse rankings. While this matchup looks to be a lower-scoring affair than initially anticipated, the final score should be just as close.

Texas didn't exactly dominate hapless Colorado last week. The Longhorns trailed at halftime, and that, combined with Alabama's dominant performance, dropped them to the No. 3 line in the Associated Press poll. Texas sits even lower at fifth in our power rankings, which do not fully take into consideration the slow first-half starts against Colorado and Wyoming.

The Longhorns do have the nation's top-scoring offense with 47.2 points per game (against just the 100th toughest schedule thus far), in part due to McCoy's highly touted arm.

But it is Texas' defense that has shined the brightest. Opponents are rushing for just 1.58 yards per rush, and while the Horns are outside the top 25 in terms of passing yards allowed per game, their 4.89 mark in yards per attempt makes them one of just eight teams in the country giving up less than five YPA.

Oklahoma bounced back from its second loss of the season at Miami by cruising past Baylor, giving Bradford—returning from a shoulder injury—a tune-up heading into Saturday's big matchup with Texas. The Sooners are the only two-loss team in the major top-25 polls and are ranked even higher than most polls (at No. 14) in our power rankings.

Oklahoma is 14th in the nation in total offense at 457 yards per game but is one of just two teams in the top 28 in that category that is averaging less than six yards per play. The Sooners' rush defense has been nearly as stout as Texas'. Oklahoma is giving up 1.79 yards per carry and has not allowed a single touchdown.

With such strong defenses up to this point, the projected total score in this game has decreased by three touchdowns since the season began, but the margin of victory remains a one-score affair.

In 10,000 simulations, Texas wins the "majority" of the time (if 50.2 percent of the time counts as a majority). The average final score is a 26-23 Texas victory.

To see other picks, like our Upset of the Week and Lock of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

Other Notable Games in Week Seven

Texas-Oklahoma is not the only game this week that could have huge implications down the stretch.

Thursday's matchup of unbeatens could end up determining the champion in the Big East. It could even have national championship implications as both teams rank in the top 11 of our power rankings, with the winner likely to be favored in all its remaining games. Visiting Cincinnati beats South Florida 60.2 percent of the time in a game that is decided, on average, by less than a field goal.

Pitt defeats Rutgers to remain unbeaten in the Big East and become the top contender to the winner of Cincinnati-South Florida just 44.8 percent of the time.

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin has won four of its last six home meetings and is 26-17-1 against Iowa in Madison, but the Hawkeyes remain undefeated by beating the Badgers 75.1 percent of the time, winning by an average of eight points. Penn State ends its streak of cupcake non-conference games and defeats Minnesota at more than an 87 percent clip.

Auburn, looking to avoid a second consecutive setback, beats Kentucky just 53.7 percent of the time, while Arkansas has a less than 10 percent chance to pull off a second straight upset against Florida.

In a battle of Big 12 one-loss teams, Oklahoma State tops Missouri 77.1 percent of the time and by an average of more than two scores, while Kansas remains unbeaten with a win over Colorado 94 percent of the time.

Week Seven Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Delaware State @ Michigan	95.0	9.0-38.4
San Jose State @ Fresno State	95.0	11.4-45.4
Colorado State @ TCU	94.0	14.1-36.5
Miami (OH) @ Ohio	93.5	7.2-26.5
Arkansas @ Florida	90.5	19.8-38.5
UAB @ Mississippi	90.5	12.8-32.5
Marshall @ West Virginia	89.1	14.9-37.2
Northwestern @ Michigan State	88.1	12.4-30.5
Minnesota @ Penn State	87.1	14.3-31.4
Memphis @ Southern Miss	85.6	11.6-27.3
Rice @ East Carolina	84.6	15.0-30.8
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas	81.6	15.3-30.4
Texas Tech @ Nebraska	78.6	21.5-33.8
South Carolina @ Alabama	78.6	12.2-24.7
Hawaii @ Idaho	78.1	22.9-34.5
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech	78.1	13.1-26.3
Missouri @ Oklahoma State	77.1	21.4-33.2
Army @ Temple	70.1	12.9-22.2
Akron @ Buffalo	61.7	17.3-24.1
Louisville @ Connecticut	61.2	14.5-20.5
Wyoming @ Air Force	59.7	19.9-23.9
North Carolina State @ Boston College	58.7	17.0-22.2
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers	55.2	23.4-27.6
Kentucky @ Auburn	53.7	20.0-24.3
Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Monroe	51.2	22.8-26.3
Oklahoma vs. Texas	50.2	23.4-26.1
Stanford @ Arizona	44.3	26.1-24.9
Cincinnati @ South Florida	39.8	29.4-27.7
Illinois @ Indiana	36.3	26.2-23.8
Georgia @ Vanderbilt	34.3	19.6-16.8
Mississippi State @ Middle Tennessee	33.8	24.8-19.7
Wake Forest @ Clemson	32.8	23.6-19.6
USC @ Notre Dame	30.8	30.8-24.8
California @ UCLA	30.3	20.8-15.8
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech	29.4	32.6-26.6
Texas A&M @ Kansas State	27.9	30.4-24.5
Navy @ Southern Methodist	25.9	25.6-16.9
Washington @ Arizona State	25.4	21.0-13.3
Iowa @ Wisconsin	24.9	30.9-23.2
Northern Illinois @ Toledo	23.9	31.0-23.8
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan	23.4	32.0-23.8
Bowling Green @ Ball State	22.9	25.1-16.2
Virginia @ Maryland	21.9	25.2-16.3
Baylor @ Iowa State	20.4	29.1-20.5
Nevada @ Utah State	18.9	37.0-23.6
Boise State @ Tulsa	11.4	34.4-19.5
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Western Kentucky	11.4	31.1-14.5
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	10.9	26.7-12.5
Ohio State @ Purdue	9.0	30.0-14.8
Troy @ Florida International	8.0	30.2-10.7
Kansas @ Colorado	6.0	33.1-12.6
Utah @ UNLV	5.5	37.3-17.1
Houston @ Tulane	5.0	43.9-19.9
Miami (FL) @ UCF	5.0	33.3-10.9
Brigham Young @ San Diego State	5.0	36.7-14.3

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!