Prognostication Report Card for Alabama Football

Before the season, I listed some predictions about the 2009 Alabama football season. As we approach the mid point of the season, let's see how close my predictions were.

My first prediction was about new starting quarterback Greg McElroy and the offense in general. Here are some quotes.

“The offense will be more diverse.”

“From observation, I think it's safe to say Greg McElroy is a more skilled passer and has a better mind for the game than last year's starter, John Parker Wilson.”

“It's a good bet that Alabama may lose a game this year in part because of a McElroy mistake. Though losses are never one player's fault.”

“McElroy will spread the ball around more in the short and intermediate routes, though I don't expect him to go deep very often. His deep balls have more accuracy, so when he does, I expect a higher success rate on the deeper throws.”

Grade: B-

I correctly predicted that Greg McElroy would be better at spreading the ball and had more accuracy than John Parker Wilson, but so far, he has made far fewer mistakes than I expected and has not cost Alabama a game. In fact, he more or less won the Arkansas game when they stacked the box on the offense.

I was also wrong about about his propensity to go deep. He is a threat at any time to uncork a long one.

After several stellar games, some had even mentioned him as a Heisman candidate. I think this is premature.

While his statistics have been outstanding, up to this week he has not faced the best of defenses.

He faced one of the best against Ole Miss and, predictably, his numbers took a dive. But what didn’t happen? He didn’t throw an interception. He was getting rocked by hit after vicious hit by the nasty Ole Miss pass rush, but he refused to make the bad decision. He remained patient and let his defense and his teammates win the game.

I don’t know if McElroy is a Heisman candidate, but he’s clearly one of the more solid quarterbacks in the SEC, if not the country.

“AJ McCarron will rise in status.”

Grade: F

McCarron looked great in camp, but short of the black death, he will keep the redshirt. Additionally, Star Jackson looked much improved from the spring.

“Alabama's running backs will rotate”

“Mark Ingram will be the starter and main ball carrier this year, but Trent Richardson has worked tirelessly in the weight room to prepare himself for SEC ball and I expect it will result in playing time. Roy Upchurch has had an injury-riddled career, but he is as talented as anyone if healthy. I believe he will pick up where he left off at mid season last year and become a true threat on third downs.”

Grade: B-

I was spot on here, but I can't give myself much credit. It was too obvious a prediction to give much credit for.

I came from an era in which you had to actually do the work and make the grade. My teachers weren't afraid to fail you if you were stupid.

If I credit myself anything, it was correctly predicting that freshman Eddie Lacy would redshirt after missing all of the summer workouts.

“Sophomore Marquis Maze will have some true “Prothro” moments. Maze has had to learn how to run routes to create the kind of separation he needs being short. But learn it he has, and McElroy will get him the ball.”

Grade: B

Maze has not had that signature play that puts him on canvas. But he has been our most dangerous deep threat so far.

“There will be movement on the offensive line.”

“The offensive line will be more fluid. In years past, Alabama lacked overall talent, so the starters rarely had challenges from backups, but those days are over."

Grade: F

The starting five have remained the same. Though we have some talent at second string, no one is challenging to take a spots from the starting five.

The line as a whole has played well at times and has struggled in both run and pass blocking at times, but the starters appear set.

“Terrance Cody will return to greatness.”

“Cody will completely demoralize more than one great player this year who lines up across from him.”

Grade: B

Cody is still a huge force to deal with inside and is still demanding double team attention, but he has not had as visible a roll in big plays as before. It's possible the defensive scheme has changed in a way that makes him less visible.

“A star is born in Robbie Green.”

Grade: C

I feel I was right and wrong here. Green did not win the starting spot as I expected. But he has played roughly about as much as the starters and has had some huge plays.

He's not as physical as the other safeties, he's more like a surgical instrument to their sledge hammer approach. He's also very fast and can cover ground quickly.

“Mark Barron will jack somebody up”

Grade: B

Barron started the season looking shaky, but by the third week, the light had clearly come on.

Barron hasn't really made that ESPN SportsCenter hit yet, but he has made quite a few vicious and effective hits. People are going down when he gets there and that's whats most important. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for that one hit that folks talk about for weeks, if not years.

“Javier Arenas will become a lock down corner this year"

Grade: A-

I pretty much nailed this. Nobody's getting anything on Arenas. His pick pocket play against Ole Miss was like something you would see from the '92 defense.

“The Backup defensive lineman will push the starters.“

“Lorenzo Washington and Brandon Deaderick will be pushed hard by second stringers all year, possibly one may lose their starting spot,”

Grade: D

Deaderick did in fact lose his starting spot to Marcel Darius for several weeks, but since it was because he was shot in a robbery attempt, I guess I can't really count that one.

It’s been amazing to see him fight through his injuries and regain his spot.

The main one pushing is sophomore Marcel Darius. Darius could start for any team in the country and he is coming in fresh off the bench.

I'm disappointed we lost Damien Square for the year. I really expected him to become a big part of our defensive rotation this year.

“Dan'ta Hightower will move to Jack, where he will cause great fear among SEC quarterbacks.”

Grade: F-

Not only did Hightower not move to jack, his season was over by the third week. This is nothing short of tragic for the Alabama family.

Prior to his injury, Hightower was possibly the most versatile defensive player in America, lining up virtually anywhere in the front seven aside from nose. His loss has no doubt caused many a late night meeting at the football building.

Long term, this injury is going to force Alabama to prepare more young players. That will pay dividends next year.

“One freshman linebacker will emerge.”

“Alabama signed five talented freshman linebackers this year. Only one will rise to gain significant playing time. They may in fact become a full time starter. Unfortunately, I cannot see which one.”

Grade: B

In fact, one and only one freshman linebacker has has made an impact, and in this case, conventional wisdom was correct. Five star recruit Nico Johnson is the guy.

Johnson saw his first significant playing time against Ole Miss as part of the replacement by committee approach to fill the canyon left by the loss of Hightower.

Early reports indicate he was lost at times, but every rep he gets will help him figure out the complex Saban defense. He's also really starting to lay the wood on kick coverage.

“Alabama will blitz often.”

Grade: A

Bingo! Finally, for the first time since Stallings stalked the sideline, opposing quarterbacks have something to worry about.

Alabama is at the top of the SEC in sacks. The blitzes are coming constantly and from everywhere. So far, two quarterbacks pegged as big time pro prospects have been clueless in the face of the Alabama rush.

Alas, there are always the unknown factors that stay hidden from sight until the package is unwrapped. I must award myself an F on the following items which I did not see.

Julio Jones in a Sophomore Slump

Who would have thunk it? In my original article, I said nothing about Jones; I assumed it to be a forgone conclusion that he would dominate. He has not.

It's important to keep in mind that Julio's slumps are better than most receivers' peaks. His numbers are down, but he is far from irrelevant. He’s still drawing double and triple coverage at times and made a key block on Alabama’s only touchdown play against the tough Ole Miss defense.

Some have questioned if he is truly over his sports hernia that received medical treatment this summer. Julio is a true professional, he will eventually get through it, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Kick Coverage Problems

With a gaggle of four and five star recruits to fill special teams with, I still cannot fathom why we can't cover kicks. It’s been a disgrace, really.

If anyone is giving excuses in Tuscaloosa, it’s time to throw hot coffee in their face. Alabama has made some improvement the last two weeks.

Eryk Anders' Journey from Unwanted Recruit to Starter

Anders was not signed on national signing day like most recuits.

Mike Shula had so many problems signing and keeping players, he picked up Anders after the fact. Anders played defensive end in high school, but was far too small for the SEC, so his journey to starting jack linebacker was a long one.

Most felt he would never be able to keep his scholarship under Saban, but he has proven everyone wrong. Not only did he stick, but he has become a solid jack linebacker and one of our most dangerous rush threats. His improvement from last year to this has been dramatic.

I Heard Trent Richardson Was Good, but Dang!

His mad dash against Arkansas was one of the best runs I've seen, and that’s saying a lot. Richardson has shown his youth at times, missing open holes and fumbling in a critical situation against Ole Miss as well as almost getting caught for a safety. But his physical strength is almost unnatural. I for one am licking my chops to how good he can be.

Roy Upchurch, Injured Again, Yes, but When He's in There...

I never expected to see him trucking people like he has. He's probably the one running back defensive backs hate to see most in Alabama's backfield. I hope he gets well soon.

Where Is Brad Smelly?

I expect him to pick up where he left off last year, but so far he has not really made the kind of plays he made last year. While Colon Peek might have something to do with that, when Smelly’s been in there, he hasn’t been as sure-handed as I expected.

Finally, my last prognostication review:

“Mark it down, Terrence Cody will score a touchdown this year.”

Grade: Incomplete

My fingers are still crossed on this one! I still think somebody's going to get the glove across the face treatment. Who's it going to be?