2017 NFL Draft: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Predictions
The big day has finally, blissfully arrived.
It's time for speculation and scuttlebutt to give way to cold, hard reality. Time for hundreds of mock drafts to give way to the real deal in Philadelphia.
It's draft day.
For NFL teams, it's an opportunity to fill holes on their rosters with the top young players of 2017.
For the players, it's a chance to learn where their football careers will continue—as well as who will be signing their robust paychecks.
And for the NFL writers here at Bleacher Report, it's an opportunity to gather and offer their takes on how the 2017 NFL draft will play out.
Who will be the No. 1 overall pick?
Who will be the draft's biggest steal?
Which team will make a reach it'll live to regret?
For the answers to those questions and more, read on as I unveil Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections for the 2017 NFL draft.
Cue the drumroll.
No. 1 Overall Pick
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Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas A&M (10 votes)
By virtue of their 1-15 debacle of a 2016 season, the Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. For the fourth time since 2012, the Browns have two picks in the first round.
A quick look at the players the Browns took with the other three double-dips shows why the beleaguered fanbase in Cleveland is equal parts optimistic and terrified.
As Mary Kay Cabot reported for Cleveland.com (h/t Peter King of The MMQB), there's some dissension by the shores of Lake Erie regarding who the top pick should be. Head coach Hue Jackson leads a camp in favor of selecting Texas A&M pass-rusher Myles Garrett, who most consider the No. 1 overall prospect. But the Cleveland front office may favor North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
As Mike Mayock of NFL Network told King, you can count him among the first group:
"The only way you don't run Myles Garrett up there in minute number one [of the draft] is if the entire building is uniform and says there's a quarterback in this draft that, A, we think is a franchise QB; B, he will be the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns for the next eight to 10 years; and C, we will win a lot of football games with him.
If you believe all of that, then take him at one. But my feeling is, that QB isn't in this draft. So it's got to be Myles Garrett.
"
Our experts are in step with Mayock, including NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier:
"Great pass-rushers generate lots of sacks. The best pass-rushers, the generational guys, dictate the entire offensive game plan. That's what Garrett does. Watch a Texas A&M game, and you will see that opposing offensive coordinators started their preparation by asking "how do we stop Garrett" and then reverse-engineered lots of screens, misdirection plays and runs to the opposite side of the field to neutralize him instead of running their standard offenses. Jadeveon Clowney earned a little of that kind of treatment at his collegiate peak. Ndamukong Suh got a version of it on the interior line. It's rare, and it transcends talk about his sack totals or his "motor" or the relative values of pass-rushers to quarterbacks or whatever.
"
I'm well aware the Browns badly need to get better under center. And there are those, including Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp (via ESPN.com's Adam Schefter), who aren't sold on Garrett at 1.01:
"I don't see it from this kid. I see the splash plays; everybody gets those. Where's the game he took over? Where? Any defensive lineman who's the No. 1 pick, you turn up and you say, "There it is!" This kid, no, I don't. I'm a pretty plain and frank guy, and I watch the tape and he disappears. I watch the tape, and he absolutely disappears.
"
But Sapp is very much in the minority in his assessment. If you polled 100 scouts and sportswriters, over 90 would tell you that Garrett is the call at No. 1 for a Browns team that is making the switch to the 4-3 in 2017.
So c'mon Cleveland. As a fan, I implore you.
Don't screw this up.
Steal of the Draft
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Davis Webb, QB, California (2 votes)
Gauging the steal of a given draft before said draft is the most subjective of exercises. That's reflected in the vote here, where all of one player received more than a single nod.
That he's a quarterback should surprise no one.
Last year, a Cal quarterback was the No. 1 overall pick. Jared Goff's successor isn't going to go that high, but as Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports reported, Davis Webb has entered the conversation at the back of Round 1 after a strong showing in predraft workouts. La Canfora wrote that Webb "continues to generate a groundswell of support," and it's becoming a real possibility he'll be drafted ahead of Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer.
There are those who think even more highly of the 6'5", 229-pound Webb, who threw for almost 4,300 yards and 37 touchdowns in his lone year as the Bears starter after transferring from Texas Tech.
In fact, one NFL executive went so far as to tell Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com he believes Webb is the best prospect at his position in the class of 2017: "If I were a team like Cleveland, I would take impact players at [pick Nos.] 1 and 12 and then trade back into the bottom of the first round for Davis Webb. I think he will end up being the best quarterback of this draft class."
There's at least one other person who agrees with that executive, according to Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar—Davis Webb:
"You ask any quarterback, and they're all gonna say the same thing—they feel like they're the best quarterback in the draft, and what I feel separates me from other guys is my work ethic and my love of the game. But I think my projection as a quarterback is very good—I think five to 10 years from now, I think I'm going to be a lot different than I am today. I'll be a lot better, and a lot more mechanically efficient, and have the capability to run an NFL offense. So, I think my projection down the road is very high, and I think that's what separates me—the potential is very good, and I'm going to work every day to get better.
"
Farrar wasn't one of the writers who selected Webb as the steal of this year's draft, but I was. The reason is simple.
I can't guarantee you that Webb is the No. 1 quarterback prospect in this year's crop. But I also can't tell you definitively that he isn't.
While some team will reach for North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky in the top 10, and Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech likely won't last much longer, Webb will probably be there at the end of Day 1. Maybe even early on Day 2.
That sets the stage for him to be the biggest value of the 2017 draft at the NFL's most important position.
Others receiving votes: Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss (1 vote); Sidney Jones, CB, Washington (1 vote); Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt (1 vote); Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma (1 vote); Jake Butt, TE, Michigan (1 vote); Curtis Samuel, RB/WR, Ohio State (1 vote); Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky (1 vote); Ryan Switzer, WR, North Carolina (1 vote)
Biggest Round 1 Reach
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John Ross, WR, Washington (4 votes)
Among the wide receivers in the 2017 NFL draft, no young pass-catcher has generated more buzz since February than Washington's John Ross.
To be precise, Ross generated that buzz in February—when the 5'11", 188-pounder rattled off the fastest 40-yard dash time (4.22 seconds) in NFL Scouting Combine history.
Given that blazing speed, it's no surprise many pundits predict Ross will be a first-round pick in this year's draft. In his most recent mock draft, Bleacher Report NFL Lead Scout Doug Farrar projected the Baltimore Ravens would take Ross at No. 16.
"Make no mistake—he's not a one-dimensional straight-line guy," Farrar wrote. "Ross can run complex route concepts, his foot fakes at the line are ridiculous, and he's not afraid to go over the middle. He caught 13 balls last season thrown over 20 yards in the air—just two fewer than the entire Ravens receiver corps."
So what's the problem? Why did four of the writers here at B/R single out Ross as the biggest Round 1 reach of 2017?
In a word, durability.
NFL Network's Mike Mayock relayed in a conference call with reporters that Ross' lengthy injury history has caused some teams to pull him from their draft boards altogether:
"I don't care if he runs 4.22 or 4.32 or 4.42, I mean, he flies. The concern there, and there are some teams that have pushed him down the board or off the board because of injury. He's got the surgery on his shoulder, he's had surgery on both knees, and he's got a small frame. So the durability is a big issue with him right now.
"
For Bleacher Report NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon, the concerns regarding Ross go beyond his injury history:
"It's not as though I don't love John Ross, because speed is just fun. And he's more than just a burner. That being said, he'll be overdrafted for that speed, which should probably be viewed as a bonus and nothing more. Mike Williams is clearly a better all-around player and Corey Davis put up silly numbers in college, but there's a chance Ross is drafted before one or both of those guys. That would be a mistake.
"
Ross will be in Philadelphia for the draft Thursday, and it's more likely than not that before the night's festivities conclude he'll have a new home.
But whoever drafts Ross will be gambling a bit. All that speed isn't much good if he can't stay on the field.
Others receiving votes: DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame (2 votes); Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina (1 vote); Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State (1 vote); Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan (1 vote); Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (1 vote)
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Best Fit
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Christian McCaffrey to Philadelphia Eagles (3 votes)
Among running backs, there hasn't been a bigger predraft riser than Stanford Swiss army knife Christian McCaffrey. A player who was once viewed by some as a borderline first-round pick is now looked at by others as a possible top-10 selection.
Bleacher Report NFL Analyst Sean Tomlinson believes McCaffrey merits top-10 consideration from a talent standpoint. But Tomlinson expects team needs to push the 5'11", 202-pound McCaffrey just a bit further down...
To the Eagles at No. 14 overall:
"Christian McCaffrey landing with the Philadelphia Eagles would be a victory for more than just Eagles fans. Anyone who enjoys watching great football players who are consistently put in a position to do great football things would win too.The problem is that two things have to happen for this dream to become a reality, and for McCaffrey to become a central figure in Doug Pederson's offense. First, McCaffrey would simply need to be on the board at No. 14. That's looking increasingly uncertain, as he might not make it past the Carolina Panthers are No. 8.
More importantly, the Eagles would also have to resist the temptation to improve their defense by addressing a need at cornerback or maybe catching a falling Reuben Foster.
"
It's a pick that's been projected by a number of draftniks of late, but not everyone's on board with the idea of McCaffrey's joining Doug Pederson and the Eagles. While speaking with ESPN's Tim McManus, former Eagles tailback Brian Westbrook gave the idea a thumbs-down, with McCaffrey's lack of ability to grind it out between the tackles cited as the reason he'd pass:
"Do they have someone that can run the ball when they're first-and-10 from the 15-yard line? Do they have somebody that can get you five, six yards when you need it? That's the big question for me. And I'm not saying McCaffrey can't. What I'm saying is, if you don't need that type of threat, that dual-threat type of guy, why wouldn't you just go get somebody that you know can run the rock consistently?
"
However, Westbrook himself allowed that he's not sure whether McCaffrey can run the ball effectively inside. Given that he averaged over six yards a carry in 2016, McCaffrey must have found some success doing so last year.
Pederson is a head coach in large part because of a Kansas City Chiefs offense predicated on versatile tailbacks like Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware.
McCaffrey would give Pederson just such a back in Philly while adding yet another weapon to the Eagles' retooled offense.
I'm guessing Carson Wentz wouldn't mind that one bit.
Others receiving votes: Mike Williams to Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Patrick Mahomes to Buffalo Bills (1 vote); Kevin King to Seattle Seahawks (1 vote); Myles Garrett to Cleveland Browns (1 vote); Mike Williams to Tennessee Titans (1 vote); Leonard Fournette to Carolina Panthers (1 vote); Jamal Adams or Malik Hooker to Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote)
Worst Fit
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Jabrill Peppers to Pittsburgh Steelers (4 votes)
It says something about how difficult it can be to gauge "fit" that Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller singled out Leonard Fournette to Carolina as the worst one—just after another writer here at B/R called that player to that team the best:
"Leonard Fournette is the best offensive player in this draft class. He should be a top pick—just not to the Carolina Panthers. Fournette isn't an ideal fit in an offense that goes shotgun or pistol 100 percent of the time, and that's what the Panthers do. Fournette and Cam Newton might seem like a match made in heaven, but on the field it's an awful crash of elite talents who don't complement each other.
"
Go figure.
It wasn't Fournette who "won" this vote, though.
As ESPN.com's John Clayton reported, when polling a group of NFL executives in regards to Michigan's Jabrill peppers, one player comparison and one team kept coming up:
Troy Polamalu and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
"The Troy Polamalu comparisons are good ones for him," one executive said. "I don't think he's as elite as Troy. I'm not sure he's an elite safety. That's why he might need to have someone behind him as a free safety who can give him a little help. What you just want him to do is follow the ball. Following the ball is what he does great."
"He'd be perfect for a team like Pittsburgh," a second executive stated. "He could play a lot like Troy Polamalu. He might need to have a free safety who can help him over the top, but he would be great at running up the line of scrimmage and running back. He's really good in the box, but I think he goes in the 20s."
By no means is it meant as an indictment of Peppers' abilities as a player, but four of the writers here at B/R aren't feeling that second proclamation.
On some level, it's a matter of fit. The Steelers already have a rising strong safety in second-year pro Sean Davis and a veteran free safety in Mike Mitchell. The team could conceivably move Davis (a converted cornerback) into Mitchell's spot and get significantly younger at the back end, but the addition of Peppers appears to be a case of fixing that which is not broken.
There's also the matter of expectations—unrealistic expectations.
If Peppers lands in the Steel City, comparisons between him and Polamalu are only going to increase. Everything Peppers does will be compared to a player who will all but certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
If he doesn't acclimate to a new position and perform at an elite level, it won't take long for the grumbles to start.
Peppers is an immensely talented young defender with a bright future. But the scribes here think it's best that future start somewhere besides Pittsburgh.
Others receiving votes: Dalvin Cook to Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes); Mitchell Trubisky to Cleveland Browns (at 1.01) (1 vote); Joe Mixon to Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote); Reuben Foster to Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote); Leonard Fournette to Carolina Panthers (1 vote)
Number of Round 1 Trades
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Six (4 votes)
The 2017 NFL draft is going to be hard-pressed to match the wheeling and dealing of a year ago. By this time in 2016 the top two overall picks had already been dealt.
The Cleveland Browns not only traded the second overall pick but moved back a second time when they dealt the eighth overall pick (which previously belonged to the Philadelphia Eagles, who acquired it from the Miami Dolphins) to Tennessee for pick No. 15.
The Titans got that 15th overall pick when they dealt the No. 1 pick to the Los Angeles Rams.
Confused yet?
In 2016 there were eight trades involving first-round picks. The impact of those trades is still being felt. The Titans have a top-five pick this year via the Rams in addition to their selection at No. 18. The Browns pick at Nos. 1 and 12. That 12th pick belonged to the Eagles, who will now pick at No. 14 after picking up the Minnesota Vikings' first-rounder in the Sam Bradford deal last summer.
Now are you confused?
Rest assured, Tradeapalooza 2017 may not be quite as manic as a season ago yet, but there's still plenty of time to play Let's Make a Deal.
In a draft short on "home run" prospects, there's been no shortage of rumors regarding teams' making a draft-day move. The problem, as Peter King reported for The MMQB, is that every team wants to move in the same direction...
Back.
Every team from the San Francisco 49ers at No. 2 to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 7 has expressed a level of interest in trading down in the first round and adding picks.
Will all those teams get their wish? No.
But whether it's the Browns or someone else, a team is going to move up into one of those spots to grab a quarterback. We might even see it happen more than once.
Add in some late-round jockeying for position (there's always a team that sees a guy on the board late Thursday and makes a move a la Denver and San Francisco in 2016), and Monte Hall would be proud of how our experts expect Round 1 to play out.
Or Wayne Brady. Whatever.
Others receiving votes: Five (3 votes); Four (2 votes); Three (1 vote)
Biggest Draft-Day Riser
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Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida (3 votes)
Like many of the categories here, the votes for biggest draft-day riser were widespread. Two writers, including NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski, named lanky Washington cornerback Kevin King:
"Three factors will come into play for Washington cornerback Kevin King to become the draft's biggest riser. First, he presents a rare combination of size and athleticism at 6'3" and 200 pounds with a 39.5-inch vertical as well as the top short shuttle and three-cone times of any prospect at the NFL combine. Second, King is a versatile corner who can play both outside the numbers and over the slot. Finally, an injury to former teammate Sidney Jones and off-field concerns regarding Gareon Conley open up an opportunity for King to take their place as a potential early first-round selection.
"
However, a trio of scribes went with a young linebacker for whom everything seems to be coming together as the big day nears—Florida's Jarrad Davis.
For starters (and most importantly), Davis did his part. The 6'1", 238-pounder shined during predraft workouts—so much so that ESPN NFL draft guru (and hairstyle king) Mel Kiper told reporters Davis has solidified his status as a first-round talent:
"He's NFL-ready. Jarrad Davis is a heck of a football player. I think the workout solidified him. The workout made everybody say, "Hey, the tape, the workout, the character - he's going in the first round." He'd be a heck of a pick for the New York Giants, the Detroit Lions, the Arizona Cardinals - any one of those teams that needs an inside linebacker.
"
There's also the matter of the cratering draft stock of the player everyone expected to be the first inside linebacker taken April 27.
We'll get to Alabama's Reuben Foster in a second, but suffice it to say he'd very much like a mulligan on draft season.
Enough red flags have popped up with Foster that Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller tweeted recently Foster (once thought a lock for the top 20) could fall to "Myles Jack range."
Jack was the 36th pick a year ago.
Draftnik Michael Lombardi agrees. "Teams picking between 33-45 will need to make sure they are comfortable with R. Foster," Lombardi tweeted, "'cause he will be there."
However, Foster's free fall doesn't alleviate the need teams like the Giants, Redbirds and Texans have in the middle of their defense.
Davis would.
As I said, it's all coming together.
Others receiving votes: Kevin King, CB, Washington (2 votes); Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (1 vote); Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (1 vote), Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland (1 vote); Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington (1 vote); Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss (1 vote)
Biggest Draft-Day Slider
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Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama (6 votes)
To say it hasn't been a good draft season for Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster is a bit like saying last year wasn't a good election season for Hillary Clinton.
It's accurate, but it only scratches the surface of how bad things have gotten for the 2016 Butkus Award winner.
Heading into the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine, Foster was widely viewed as a first-round lock as the best inside linebacker prospect in this year's class.
Then came a disastrous showing in Indy. He was sent home by the NFL after arguing with a medical staff member, and then news broke this week that he failed a drug test because of a diluted sample.
NFL Network's Mike Mayock said on a conference call that he doesn't expect the 6'0", 229-pounder to fall outside the top 20:
"There are some red flags there. I think the combine incident has been wiped clean by almost every team. I think that was way overdone, and the kid should not have been sent home. That's my opinion, and most people in the league believe that.
As far as the diluted sample at the combine, that's always really disappointing and has to be taken into consideration. I think the shoulder is apparently going to be OK from a re-check perspective. I don't see him sliding all that far. I think he's a top-20 pick all day long in any draft. Could he have been a top-10 pick? He still might be a top-10 pick.
"
However, Tony Pauline of Draft Insider isn't so sure, citing medical and off-field issues that go well past Foster's shoulder: "Foster has dropped dramatically. The news of his failed/diluted drug test ... was the icing on the cake. One team was ready to take him in the middle of Round 1 but has backed off. I'm told it's a combination of what's described as 'horrible behavior' as well as concussion issues."
Now, if the drug test was a one-time mistake, reports of off-field shenanigans are overblown and Foster is healthy, a draft-day slide could wind up being a blessing for some fortunate NFL team. There are any number of questions swirling around Foster, but talent and instincts aren't among them.
But that's a bunch of "ifs," and there's little question Foster hasn't done his bank account any favors over the past couple of months.
Others receiving votes: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State (2 votes); DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame (1 vote); Teez Tabor, CB, Florida (1 vote)
AUTHOR'S NOTE: Votes were submitted for this category prior to the rape allegations made against Ohio State cornerback Gareon Conley. Frankly, given the seriousness of those allegations and his insistence he's innocent, I have no desire to speculate on them anyway. But it doesn't take much speculating to believe the allegations are going to damage Conley's draft stock substantially.
First Quarterback Drafted (And by Whom)
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Mitch Trubisky, Cleveland Browns (4 votes)
As a Browns fan, I find this vote abjectly horrifying.
It's been widely speculated that the Browns are considering making North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft—and that part of the front office favors the idea.
To his credit, Trubisky told Peter King of The MMQB he isn't worried about the pressure that would accompany that pick:
"I think that is the type of pressure you dream of, and no exterior pressure is greater than the pressure that I put on myself. If I would go back home it would be special, just like anywhere else. They say be careful what you wish for, but this is what I wished for, this is what I worked for and this is what I dreamed of. I just want to play football, so all the craziness that comes with it, that's just bonus. I'm going to black that out when I go to work. Football is what makes me happy, not the media, all the attention. That's where the craziness comes in.
"
Of course, King then goes on to point out quite succinctly why this would be an awful idea:
"I say this as much for Trubisky's benefit as I do for people inside the team: He should not be the Browns' first overall pick. If Trubisky goes to the Browns, and is forced to play early by the ravenous public when the team's struggling, he could end up a battered mess, like Tim Couch, or one whose confidence gets shot early, like David Carr. That's not even considering the local-kid angle, which just adds to the mayhem.
"
In related news, Peter King knows stuff. Anointing a flawed young signal-caller with 13 career starts the franchise savior in Cleveland would just be the latest chapter in Cleveland's never-ending saga of 21st-century draft gaffes.
So, of course the Browns are going to do it.
Trubisky won't be there when the Browns pick at 12, but over half of the top 10 wants to trade down. The Browns have more than enough draft capital on Day 2 to draft Myles Garrett at No. 1 and then move up and grab a quarterback.
I don't like the idea—they're moving up for the wrong guy in my opinion—but at least it would be an aggressive move: attacking the team's biggest need rather than drafting a sideshow or 28-year-old rookie later in Round 1.
I'm not even saying those quarterbacks' names out loud. It's too depressing.
Almost as depressing as it's going to be to watch Deshaun Watson thrive in the NFL while Trubisky struggles.
Others receiving votes: Trubisky to New York Jets (2 votes); Trubisky to Buffalo Bills (1 vote); Deshaun Watson to Jets (1 vote); Watson to Bills (1 vote); Patrick Mahomes to Jets (1 vote)
Pick That Makes Too Much Sense to Actually Happen
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T.J. Watt to Green Bay Packers (3 votes)
Partly because of T.J. Watt's brother (who is pretty good at the whole football thing), partly due to his own considerable talents and partly due to his connections to the state of Wisconsin, some mock drafters have projected the Green Bay Packers to take the edge-rusher with the 29th pick of the 2017 NFL draft.
As Jason Wilde reported for the Wisconsin State Journal, that idea is just fine with Packers star Clay Matthews:
"Obviously, everyone's going to expect big things out of him with how well J.J. has been playing in this league. I think he just wants his shot, and I know some of the mock draft boards have him potentially coming here — which would be great, if he's even half the player that his brother is. I'm sure there's pressure on him. But I'm sure if he's anything like his brother, he'll have a drive and work ethic that can't be matched.
"
For his part, Watt told Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel he's more than open to continuing his football career close to home:
"I did a card signing the other day, and it was all the Packer fans, probably every person in there. "I hope to see you in the green and gold." It's awesome to see the support that team has, and obviously anyone who gets to play for that team it's a special fan base, and it would be awesome to be a Green Bay Packer. But at the same time, I'm just keeping all options open knowing that you just never know what happens on draft night.
"
It's perfect, really. A local kid who starred for the Badgers who just so happens to play a position that's among the Packers' greatest areas of need.
So whether Watt's already off the board or the Pack decide to go another direction, our writers just don't see this one coming to pass.
Others receiving votes: Christian McCaffrey to New England Patriots (1 vote); McCaffrey to Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote); Forrest Lamp to Packers (1 vote); Jamal Adams to New York Jets (1 vote); Derek Barnett to Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Mitchell Trubisky to Chicago Bears (1 vote); offensive tackle to Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)
Day 3 Diamond in the Rough
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Xavier Woods, S, Louisiana Tech (3 votes)
In most drafts, a three-time all-conference defensive back who runs like a free safety but hits like a strong safety wouldn't be in danger of falling through the proverbial cracks.
However, in a 2017 class that's loaded in the secondary, that's exactly what's happened to Xavier Woods of Louisiana Tech.
Bleacher Report's Justis Mosqueda wrote recently that's a shame, calling the 5'11", 197-pounder a "poor man's [Devin] McCourty" and predicting that "in three years, everyone will be wondering how Woods' name wasn't mentioned as at least a Day 2 prospect":
"Xavier Woods does everything for Louisiana Tech. He plays single-high safety, he plays in an overhang role like a slot cornerback or strong safety, and he plays a boundary safety role, the one that made Damarious Randall a first-round cornerback prospect.
After Malik Hooker of Ohio State and Budda Baker of Washington, the best single-high-coverage prospect very well might be Woods in this draft.
"
In fairness, the depth of this year's crop of secondary talent isn't the only reason Woods is a Day 3 prospect. While Woods was lauded in college for his playmaking ability and tenacity, he occasionally tried a bit too hard to make the big play or knock an opponent out of his shoes.
His penchant for hitting rather than tackling sometimes came back to bite him. His aggressiveness in run support at times led to poor angles and over-pursuit on counters and cutbacks. And despite starting for four years, Woods can still be overeager in coverage, leaving him susceptible to play fakes.
Still, the versatility Woods displayed for the Bulldogs is in vogue in today's NFL, and he's just the kind of Day 3 pick NFL teams like because he can be an early contributor on special teams.
Don't be surprised if before too long he's much more than that.
Others receiving votes: Brian Allen, CB, Utah (1 vote); Naz Jones, DT, North Carolina; Evan Schwan, DE, Penn State (1 vote); Dylan Cole, LB, Missouri State (1 vote); Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss (1 vote); Joe Williams, RB, Utah (1 vote); Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida (1 vote)
Seventh-Round Star
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Bug Howard, WR, North Carolina (3 votes)
As nicknames go, North Carolina receiver Johnathan Howard might want to look into getting a new one.
"Bug" denotes a small, shifty player gliding across the field—a slot receiver type who relies on speed and quickness to get open.
As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote, that most assuredly does not describe the 6'4", 221-pound Howard:
"Howard has the height and weight part, but is missing the speed and that could make finding a draft-day home a challenge. Howard is a possession receiver who can work in traffic and catch what is thrown to him, but he is unable to create enough separation with his routes. Howard's lack of special teams experience is another obstacle he may have to overcome to make a roster.
"
As Zierlein said, there are more than a few things working against Howard as he seeks a home in the NFL. His 4.58-second 40-yard dash at February's NFL Scouting Combine simply confirmed what scouts already knew.
Howard isn't that fast.
He also isn't quick off the line or fluid when making cuts. On tape at least, it appears Howard is going to be hard-pressed to get separation from NFL defensive backs.
At Chapel Hill, Howard could just reach over people. It isn't going to be that easy in the pros.
Add in that Howard lacks special teams experience, and it's not hard to see why Howard was tabbed as a seventh-round star. Frankly, it's far from a sure thing he'll be drafted at all.
If he is though, the team that takes Howard will be getting a lanky, sure-handed red-zone target who posted a 37.5-inch vertical in Indy.
His leaping ability, size and hands were enough to get him the nod in a category that's nearly impossible to predict.
After all, if we could peg last-round stars in the offing, we'd be helping make draft picks instead of writing about them.
Others receiving votes: Ishmael Zamora, WR, Baylor (1 vote); Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina (1 vote); Fish Smithson, S, Kansas (1 vote); John Johnson, S, Boston College; Najee Murray, CB, Kent State; Dalton Crossan, RB, New Hampshire (1 vote); Dylan Donahue, DE, West Georgia (1 vote)
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