Game Theory: How to Guarantee Success in the NFL

Far too often have I seen a professional football team relegated to ‘bottom feeder‘ status in the NFL. As the league has evolved, players are now faster and bigger, playbooks are smarter and more complex. 

My theory for success is founded upon the last 10-15 years.  In the past decade and a half, I have seen the Bengals lay dormant, and in contrast, I have seen the rapid turnaround of the Rams of 2001.

Using the Cleveland Browns as my case example I will show you the 3 paradigm trends in team building that will guarantee success in the NFL. And you might be surprised at how simple it is.

1)1     Build an offensive line (with defensive line as second priority).

Yes this is Number One. First and foremost, a team must focus primarily on the trenches, the line.

When a team is building, they must establish a foundation. A skill player cannot reach his potential without an offensive line to provide time for the quarterback or holes for the runner.

Similarly, the toughest job in the NFL is a corner-back who plays behind the worst defensive line in the league.

Even more so, a great offensive line will allow any team to achieve at the very least, some moderate success. Any player drafted into the NFL has skills. They are professionals whether they make $10 million a the year or one. If you give any running back in the league a gaping hole to run through they will average 4 yards a carry.

Those 4 yards a carry will provide on average 4-12 more first downs a game than a running attack that averages 2.8 a carry. Moving chains will simultaneously open up the passing game and provide R&R for the defense.

A QB will gain confidence behind a great O-Line and a defense will be energized.

On the other hand, it is widely accepted that the New York Giants key to success in the past Super Bowl was the play of their defensive line.

2)2   Hire a coach that gets his players to buy into the system.

Bill Belichick. He has won three Superbowls with "team first" attitude type players. Free agents don’t go to New England to become stars. They go to Foxboro for the ideology of which the group is greater than the individual.

When players buy into the system, they create a chemistry that is essential for success. How many times have we seen teams implode from either poor leadership or "me first" players.

3)3 Drafting football players

     When I say football players I mean football players. Players who play football. Players who are professionals. Players who treat their jobs as what they are, jobs. Confused??? Let me explain. 

     Running a 4.3 40 yard dash does not translate into automatic success. There are players who have proven themselves throughout their careers regardless of their speed or size.  Players who year after year lead their college conference in tackles, rushing yards, or sacks that don’t get drafted until the 4th or even 6th round.

    They are undersized but play with heart. They may not become every day starters but they sure have something to bring to the table, whether it is special teams play or pushing their teammates on the practice field.

Now to my case in point…

In 1999, the Cleveland Browns returned to the league, with no players. They were an expansion team headed by then GM the iconic Dwight Clark. Being as they had no players, they certainly had no foundation to build from. They certainly had no offensive line.

Nonetheless, the Browns drafted QB Tim Couch from Kentucky, and followed that pick with the skill players of WR Kevin Johnson and CB Daylon McCutcheon in the 2nd and 3rd Rounds.

Chaos soon ensued.  Tim Couch was sacked at a record pace and now lives in his modest home in Kentucky, despite what should be the prime of his career.

We’ve seen bad teams draft top prospect QBs time and time again. How many times do we have to see through a David Carr, or an Akili Smith, or an Alex Smith, before teams come to grips with the fact that skill players cannot succeed without an offensive line?

But it didn’t stop there. Cleveland drafted a WR in the second round for four straight years. They drafted RB William Green in the first round, who never developed in this league because he had no room to run. Cleveland did not draft an offensive guard or tackle on the first day of the draft until 2007.

In 2006, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow were modest players on a horrid team. In 2007, with the addition of T Joe Thomas and G Eric Steinbach, both Edwards and Winslow were Probowlers.

Cleveland fortified their offensive line with a pro-bowl left side, which allowed RT Ryan Tucker and C Hank Fraley to excel due to decreased pressure from the overall improvements.

In '07 Cleveland had one of the most prolific offenses in the league and won 10 games.

Perhaps most telling was the emergence of Derek Anderson. A former 6th round pick who was one of the fewest sacked quarterbacks in football, and had ample time to deliver to his targets, raising his confidence game by game. And yes, he as well was playing in Hawaii in February.

Even more so, the Browns started to play as a cohesive unit. Romeo Crennel might not be the most technical or charismatic coach in the NFL. He certainly isn’t intimidating.

But he is a player’s coach. And the players love him. They respect his work that he did in New England, and they want to win for him. They buy into Romeo’s ideology. The camaraderie in the locker room is addictive, the work ethic is insatiable, and much credit goes to coach. 

Finally, team architect Phil Savage has solidified the Cleveland unit through quality drafting. He has scored on pro-bowlers in the 1st round, but just as importantly, he has provided depth with his other picks.

From 1999 to 2003, there are three Browns drafted players that are still on the roster.

From Savage’s inception in 2005 nearly all of his picks are still with the team and have found a role from which they can contribute, whether it is on one of the best special teams units in the AFC or as undrafted and electrifying hybrid players ala Josh Cribbs

In summation, my theory for success relies on three fundamental components. Make the lines the priority by building it through first day draft picks and free agency. Find a coach who can command the respect of his players. And round out the team with football players who have a sustained pedigree in their craft.

Cleveland has showed us, just as in the way so many other teams have sustained success in this league. A team must have a good offensive line in order to win, above all. As simple as is seems, year after year teams neglect their lines for flashy skill players that are doomed to underachieve.

Think Im wrong? Show me a title contender with a porous offensive line.