The Obstacle Most Likely to Derail Each MLB Contender's Season
We're one week into the 2017 MLB season, which means it's time to draw all sorts of firm conclusions.
I'm kidding, of course. All early analysis must be served with the mandatory small-ample, grain-of-salt caveats.
That said, after an offseason of anticipation, a couple months of exhibition action and, now, a handful of consequential games, we can examine the presumed contenders in each league and pinpoint the obstacle most likely to derail their seasons.
It's a gloomy subject for April, but also an important one. This is the time of year when clubs can identify weaknesses and patch them up, either through roster tweaks, call-ups or trades.
One other note: I'm defining "contender" based on FanGraphs' projected standings and my own judgement/analysis, not on early-season records. So the 1-5 Toronto Blue Jays make the cut, while the 5-1 Minnesota Twins don't.
American League West
1 of 6
Houston Astros
Biggest obstacle: Young hitters struggle
The Houston Astros have gotten encouraging early results in the starting rotation, particularly from Dallas Keuchel, who looks like a reborn ace after two strong starts. The bullpen has wobbled a bit, but it should be a strength. So should the offense, provided the Astros' young bats pull their weight.
Again, it's early, but several 'Stros are scuffling out of the gate, including third baseman Alex Bregman (.179 average entering play Tuesday).
Will they turn it around? Probably. For now, however, Houston is tied for 25th in runs scored, which is not a good look.
Los Angeles Angels
Biggest obstacle: Garrett Richards' health
The Los Angeles Angels made some solid if unspectacular moves this winter to build up the offense around American League MVP Mike Trout. This spring, however, all eyes were on Garrett Richards' right elbow.
Last May, Richards opted out of Tommy John surgery to repair a damaged elbow ligament and instead had stem-cell injection therapy. So far, so good on that front, but now Richards is on the disabled list with a biceps strain, per Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times.
The injury doesn't appear too serious. But the Halos need a healthy Richards to have any hope of sniffing the postseason, making this an inauspicious development.
Seattle Mariners
Biggest obstacle: Felix Hernandez doesn't reclaim his throne
Felix Hernandez posted his worst ERA (3.82) in nine seasons while battling injuries and velocity decline in 2016. A strong spring eased concerns, and Hernandez hasn't been awful through his first two starts. He hasn't been great either.
In 11 innings, King Felix has 12 strikeouts and no walks (good), but he has surrendered 15 hits and five earned runs while dealing with groin tightness (not so good).
Despite a slow start, the Mariners have enough talent to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001. If Hernandez can't regain his royal form, however, their chances dim like a candle in a Pacific Northwest fog.
Texas Rangers
Biggest obstacle: The bullpen implodes
On Saturday, Gil Lebreton of the Star-Telegram summed up the Texas Rangers' early struggles: "Cylinders haven't been firing. And the bullpen has been generally ghastly."
The unit as a whole owns a 6.43 ERA. Closer Sam Dyson has been especially dreadful, coughing up seven hits and eight earned runs in two innings with a blown save.
A couple of uneventful, shutdown appearances would temporarily calm some nerves, but expect this to be a trouble spot unless and until Texas adds reinforcements.
Non-contender(s)
Oakland A's.
American League Central
2 of 6
Cleveland Indians
Biggest obstacle: Starting-rotation scuffles
It's almost certainly an early-season anomaly, but it can't be ignored: The Cleveland Indians' rotation hasn't been great.
Through six starts, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer own a 6.15 ERA in 33.2 innings, with 35 hits allowed. Could it be a result of last season's workload? Manager Terry Francona doesn't buy it.
"I don't think, just when the bell rings, guys are ready to be in mid-season form," Francona said, per MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
Fair enough. This much is clear; however, the defending AL champs aren't winning another pennant without superlative starting pitching.
Detroit Tigers
Biggest obstacle: Miguel Cabrera declines
Miguel Cabrera would have a borderline Hall of Fame case if he hung 'em up today. He's one of the greatest hitters of his generation.
He's also about to turn 34 years old and dealt with a balky back this spring. The decline is coming at some point.
That makes his rocky start disconcerting, though not yet cause for panic.
Entering play Tuesday, Cabrera was 2-for-21 with eight strikeouts and zero extra-base hits. Will he finish the season with a .095 average and .335 OPS? Um, no. Are his days as one of the most fearsome sluggers in baseball are numbered? Maybe.
If so, it'd be a massive blow to an aging Detroit Tigers team that has played well in the early going but is already hovering on the AL playoff bubble.
Kansas City Royals
Biggest obstacle: Middle-relief struggles
The secret to the Kansas City Royals' success in 2014 and 2015 was their shutdown bullpen. This winter, they waved goodbye to closer Wade Davis and injury-comeback case Greg Holland, two key pieces of that relief corps.
They've still got Kelvin Herrera, who figures to hold down the ninth inning, and have gotten strong early innings from setup man Joakim Soria. The middle relief, meanwhile, has wobbled, with lefty Matt Strahm coughing up six walks and seven earned runs in three appearances.
As Lee Judge of the Kansas City Star put it, "that makes the bridge between the Royals starter and their shutdown relievers an inning longer, and that’s where the bridge has been collapsing [...] ."
Non-contender(s)
Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins.
American League East
3 of 6
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest obstacle: Chris Tillman's bum shoulder
The Baltimore Orioles are going to hit home runs in bunches; that much is assured. To contend in the crowded AL East, however, they'll need starting pitching, too, which makes the injury to ostensible ace Chris Tillman's throwing shoulder a serious red flag.
Tillman threw a batting-practice session to live hitters on Saturday, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. To say manager Buck Showalter expressed cautious optimism might be overselling it.
"Each time he takes a work day and each time he throws, you—not wonder—but you're anxious to see how the feels the next day," Showalter said, per Encina.
"Anxious" being the operative word.
Boston Red Sox
Biggest obstacle: David Price's elbow
Speaking of pitchers on the fritz, the Boston Red Sox are still waiting on $200-plus-million man David Price to make his 2017 debut.
Price, who went down early in the spring with elbow issues, threw a 20-pitch bullpen Monday, per Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com. That's progress of a sort, but Price is clearly a way off from joining the Sox's rotation.
The Red Sox have a strong offense and another ace in left-hander Chris Sale, but if Price's injury lingers deep into the season, it'll put a dent in Boston's championship aspirations.
New York Yankees
Biggest obstacle: Masahiro Tanaka falters
Coming into the season, Masahiro Tanaka seemed like the only sure thing in the New York Yankees' rotation. He had his best season on American soil in 2016 and turned in a stellar spring. I even tapped him as this year's AL Cy Young Award winner.
He's been roughed up through his first two starts, surrendering 10 runs on 14 hits in 7.2 innings. I'm still betting he rights the ship, but each bad start is a blow to New York's chances.
Add catcher Gary Sanchez's biceps injury, and you've got grounds for consternation in the Bronx.
Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest obstacle: The offense cools down
The Tampa Bay Rays have shot out of the gate, thanks in large part to an offense that ranked second in the AL in runs scored entering play Tuesday.
Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison are all off to hot starts. Is it sustainable? Possibly not.
No one pegged the Rays as an offensive juggernaut coming into the season. They will get other contributors, including infielder Matt Duffy and catcher Wilson Ramos, back at some point, and the starting pitching is strong behind ace Chris Archer.
Anyone expecting Tampa Bay to keep scoring like this, however, could be in for a letdown.
Toronto Blue Jays
Biggest obstacle: Josh Donaldson's calf
Josh Donaldson has played 155 games or more in each of the last four seasons and been a perennial MVP candidate.
The Toronto Blue Jays star dealt with calf issues early in the spring and left Sunday's game against the Rays with calf tightness, per the Jays' official Twitter feed.
Donaldson told reporters the injury isn't serious, according to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. But anytime your 31-year-old offensive cornerstone deals with a lingering health problem, alarm bells sound.
It doesn't help that Toronto is scuffling on offense and off to a 1-5 start.
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National League West
4 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks
Biggest obstacle: More struggles from Zack Greinke
After a positively disastrous first go-round with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Zack Greinke is looking for redemption in the desert.
The veteran right-hander didn't blow anyone away in the spring with a fastball that hovered in the high-80s, but he's shown flashes so far in the regular season, surrendering nine hits and three earned runs with 10 strikeouts in 11.2 innings.
Overall, the D-Backs are off to a hot start, but they'll need consistent outings from Greinke to maintain contact in the top-heavy NL West. Whether the 33-year-old is up to the task remains to be seen.
Colorado Rockies
Biggest obstacle: The pitching doesn't hold up
The Colorado Rockies were a sexy preseason sleeper pick because of their deep, balanced lineup and a pitching staff that was supposed to take the next step under new manager Bud Black.
So far, the results have been mixed.
Colorado has a winning record, but its starting pitchers own a 5.31 ERA—dead last in the Senior Circuit. There's talent to be found, headlined by emerging ace Jon Gray.
The Rockies need to harness it, though, or this will merely be another high-scoring, also-ran season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest obstacle: Injuries decimate the rotation again
The Los Angeles Dodgers used 15 starting pitchers in 2016 and 16 in 2015. To say they've suffered some bad injury luck is like saying L.A. has minor traffic issues.
So Dodgers fans can't have been pleased when left-hander Rich Hill landed on the disabled list with a finger blister, the same problem that sidelined him after he came to Los Angeles at the trade deadline last season.
Does that mean the team's rotation will again be a MASH unit? Not necessarily. If you're searching for omens, however, this isn't a great one.
San Francisco Giants
Biggest obstacle: Left field remains a void
The San Francisco Giants poured most of their offseason capital into the bullpen, and specifically closer Mark Melancon.
That made left field an up-for-grabs position, and so far, no one has grabbed it.
Jarrett Parker, who won the job in spring, is 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts. Chris Marrero is 1-for-14 with six strikeouts.
The Giants signed Melvin Upton Jr. to a minor league deal and will likely give him a look. But this is probably something the team will address at the trade deadline, if not before.
Non-contender(s)
San Diego Padres
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs
Biggest obstacle: The difficulty of repeating
Yes, freak injuries or unexpected slumps could put a damper on the Chicago Cubs' title defense.
So far, however, the Cubbies look like what they are: A remarkably complete team with a potent offense, strong starting rotation and solid bullpen.
Even new closer Wade Davis, who struggled this spring, is two for two in save opportunities and has yet to allow a run.
The only real obstacle Chicago faces is the difficulty of repeating as champs in back-to-back years. Since 1979, only two teams have done it.
Good as they are, the historical odds aren't in the Cubs' favor.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest obstacle: Andrew McCutchen's continued decline
Andrew McCutchen suffered through a down year in 2016, but the Pittsburgh Pirates opted not to trade him and instead slid him from center field to right.
Thus far, the position switch hasn't awoken his bat.
Entering play Tuesday, the former NL MVP is 4-for-24 with seven strikeouts and no extra-base hits. He's not contributing to the Bucs' cause, and he's diminishing his value in the process.
"Andrew is a good hitter," manager Clint Hurdle said April 7 after McCutchen reached base four times against the Atlanta Braves, per Chris Adamski of TribLive.com.
He has been a good hitter, and he can be a good hitter. Will he be consistently going forward? That's up in the air.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest obstacle: Trouble in the bullpen
The St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen has been a tire fire, posting an MLB-worst 8.86 ERA. Cry small sample all you want, there's no way to sugarcoat that.
Yes, the Cards got some good news with the return of Trevor Rosenthal from a lat injury Monday, but St. Louis' bullpen coughed up eight runs in his return, as MLB.com's Jennifer Langosch noted.
The Cardinals were already a long shot to hang with the Cubs in the NL Central. Without a functional 'pen, their Wild Card hopes may go up in smoke as well.
Non-contender(s)
Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers
National League East
6 of 6
Miami Marlins
Biggest obstacle: Distractions from a potential sale
The Miami Marlins have serious question marks in the starting rotation after the tragic offseason death of ace Jose Fernandez.
But no issue looms larger than the possible sale of the team by polarizing owner Jeffrey Loria. Prospective buyers include former Florida governor Jeb Bush and New York Yankees legend Derek Jeter, according to Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, which is great for headlines but not so much for clubhouse harmony.
Dysfunction and distraction have been the name of the game in South Beach for years. Even as Loria appears ready to cede control, that remains the troubling norm.
New York Mets
Biggest obstacle: More injuries to the rotation
The New York Mets rotation was decimated by injuries last season, with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz all succumbing.
The Mets are hoping for better health this season behind emerging ace Noah Syndergaard, but they've already lost Matz to a nagging elbow issue.
They have enough depth to cover for the loss with the likes of Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman, but the Amazin's can't afford the same domino effect that nudged them from pennant winners in 2015 to a Wild Card one-and-done last season.
Washington Nationals
Biggest obstacle: Uncertainty in the bullpen
After trying and failing to secure an experienced closer this winter, the Washington Nationals entered 2017 with a hope-for-the-best bullpen approach.
The picture hasn't been pretty in the early going, as Nats relievers have posted an ominous 6.66 ERA in 24.1 innings while surrendering an MLB-worst .314 opponents' batting average. Anointed closer Blake Treinen has converted three saves but owns a 8.10 ERA.
Washington may let this ride a little longer, but expect the team to go reliever shopping at the trade deadline if not much sooner.
Non-contender(s)
Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies.
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