Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

A rematch of the 2013 NCAA tournament championship game will take place in Indianapolis on Sunday when the second-seeded Louisville Cardinals (25-8) take on the seventh-seeded Michigan Wolverines (25-11) as small favorites.

The Cardinals won the last meeting 82-76 and covered the spread as a four-point favorite to earn their third national title and first under head coach Rick Pitino.

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as one-point favorites; the total is at 139.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 76.6-67.4 Wolverines (College basketball picks on every game)

Why Michigan can cover the spread

Michigan enters the round of 32 on a major roll, riding a six-game winning streak and going 5-1 against the spread during that stretch. More importantly, though, the Wolverines have won five in a row against teams with winning records (4-1 ATS), proving that they have beaten good teams lately.

It took a last-second three-pointer to keep them from covering the 2.5-point spread in a 92-91 victory against the 10th-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys on Friday, a game they led by seven at 86-79 within the final minute.

Why Louisville can cover the spread

Louisville is an impressive 14-2 straight up in its last 16 games versus Big Ten opponents. While the Cardinals were not overly impressive in their 78-63 win over the 15th-seeded Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Friday, failing to cover their fourth straight game overall, their defense will give the Wolverines problems.

Louisville—ninth on the odds to win the NCAA tournament heading into the event, per GambleOnline.co—is also an outstanding 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or less.

Smart betting pick

Defense will likely be the difference for the Cardinals in this one, as Michigan made 16 three-pointers in the round of 64 and probably will be lucky to hit half as many here. Louisville did surrender 10 three-pointers to Jacksonville State, which kept the team from getting a cover for its backers. But the Cardinals also took 18 more shots from the field overall and forced 14 turnovers.

The Wolverines will not be able to score at the same pace, and the higher level of competition will catch up to them. The Big Ten fared well in the first round, but look for Louisville and the ACC to come through in the second.

March Madness betting trends

The total has gone over in nine of Louisville's last 11 games.

The total has gone over in eight of Michigan's last 10 games.

Michigan is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games against teams with winning records.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.