Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Wisconsin Badgers Odds, March Madness Betting Pick

Virginia Tech enters this NCAA tournament riding an 8-1-1 against-the-spread run. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12. Two teams trending in different directions meet when the Hokies battle the Badgers on Thursday night in Buffalo.

Point spread: The Badgers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total is at 138.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 68.7-68.0 Badgers (College basketball picks on every game) (Download the NCAA tournament bracket)

Why Virginia Tech can cover the spread

Virginia Tech won five of its last seven games to finish 10-8 in the tough ACC. The Hokies then opened the conference tournament by shooting the lights out in a win over Wake Forest, before falling to Florida State in the quarters last Thursday 74-68. Virginia Tech led that game by a bucket midway through the second half, but a cold spell did them in.

Still, the Hokies should be in high spirits this Thursday for their first Big Dance in a decade.

Few teams in the country can shoot the ball like Virginia Tech, which is hitting at 49 percent on field goals and 40 percent from three-point range. And they can spread it around, with five guys averaging at least 10 points per game.

Why Wisconsin can cover the spread

Wisconsin won its regular-season finale against Minnesota to finish 12-6 and tied for second place in the Big Ten. The Badgers then opened the conference tournament with victories over Indiana and Northwestern, before falling to Michigan in the championship game last Sunday 71-56. That game was a little closer than the final score might indicate, considering Wisconsin only trailed by two possessions with five minutes to go.

With their 19th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance the Badgers are tied with Gonzaga for the fourth-longest active Big Dance streak. Wisconsin can struggle offensively, but defensively the Badgers are limiting opponents to just 41 percent field-goal shooting and 61 points per game.

Smart betting pick

The Hokies are 5-8 SU but 8-5 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament; the Badgers are 6-7 SU but just 4-9 ATS against tournament qualifiers. And Virginia Tech has just been playing the better ball as of late. The smart money here hits the Hokies, and they might not even need the points.

March Madness betting trends

Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS in its last six games with three days off between games.

The total has gone under in seven of Wisconsin's last nine games in March.

Virginia Tech is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with winning records.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.