March Madness 2017: Odds and Predictions for Top Round-of-64 Matchups
It has begun.
The 2017 NCAA tournament officially kicked off with a pair of First Four games on Tuesday night at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers edged out the New Orleans Privateers, 67-66, and earned a date with top overall seed Villanova on Thursday. The Kansas State Wildcats beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 95-88, and will take on the No. 6-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats on Friday.
Wednesday night brings two more First Four games—the NC Central Eagles against the UC Davis Aggies, and the USC Trojans against the Providence Friars—before things get wild with a near-endless slate on Thursday.
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It's a lot to take in, for sure. So, why not simplify it? Let's look ahead to some juicy potential matchups we could get following the first-round clashes.
Odds
| Duke | +600 |
| North Carolina | +600 |
| Villanova | +750 |
| Kansas | +800 |
| Kentucky | +850 |
| Gonzaga | +1000 |
| Arizona | +1200 |
| UCLA | +1200 |
| Louisville | +1600 |
| Oregon | +1800 |
| Florida State | +2500 |
| West Virginia | +2500 |
| Florida | +2800 |
| Purdue | +2800 |
| Baylor | +3300 |
| Virginia | +3300 |
| Iowa State | +3300 |
| SMU | +3300 |
| Michigan | +3300 |
| Notre Dame | +4000 |
| Wisconsin | +4000 |
| Butler | +5000 |
| Minnesota | +8000 |
| Cincinnati | +8000 |
| Saint Mary’s | +8000 |
Matchups to watch
Wichita State (10) vs. Dayton (7)
Kentucky (2) vs. Northern Kentucky (15)
It's become pretty clear that Gregg Marshall's Wichita State Shockers got the short end of the stick on Selection Sunday.
The 30-4 Missouri Valley Conference champions wield one of the most efficient offenses in the country. According to Basketball Reference, the Shockers’ 117.7 offensive rating ranks sixth in the nation. Oh, and their defensive rating (89.5)? Third-best in college hoops.
KenPom.com's metrics ranks Wichita State as the No. 8 team in the country.
Using that KenPom data, Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg highlighted a potential second-round matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats:
The Shockers will have to get through the No. 7-seeded Dayton Flyers, and second-seeded John Calipari and Co. will have to avoid an upset at the hands of the No. 15 Northern Kentucky Norse.
No disrespect to the Flyers or the Norse—yes, that's their real (and fantastic) nickname—but those games will be exciting more for their potential than their content.
The real matchup you should have stored in the back of your mind is Wichita-UK.
While WSU was treated unfairly as a No. 10 seed, it's also unfair that Kentucky has to play a No. 10 seed widely accepted as one of the country's most dangerous teams. Scott Gleeson of USA Today argued that the selection committee wanted this matchup, and he thinks Marshall's squad will pull off the upset:
"On paper, there's no arguing Kentucky is a much better team talent-wise, with elite freshmen Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo, who combined for nearly 50 points a game. But the Shockers will have payback from 2014 (a loss to Kentucky ending their undefeated season) as their motivation. If you think coach Gregg Marshall isn't a guy who holds grudges, think again. This team plays with a signature brand of toughness concocted by Marshall, and ranks in the top-five nationally in field goal percentage defense. Better put, they play with the same grit that got the program to the Final Four in 2013.
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College hoop diehards' mouths are already watering at this potential second-round collision between Wichita State and Kentucky, two teams that have experienced more March Madness than almost anyone in recent memory.
Arkansas (8) vs. Seton Hall (9)
Winner gets North Carolina (1)
Let's stay in that loaded South region.
The North Carolina Tar Heels will beat the No. 16-seeded Texas Southern Tigers, and it's unlikely to be close. According to OddsShark, just five times since 2001 has a No. 16 stayed within 10 points of a top seed.
That's not all that intriguing—unless you bleed Carolina blue. Look down an inch on your bracket, and you'll find one of the bigger tossups in the opening round: the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks against the No. 9 Seton Hall Pirates.
Arkansas is coming off an SEC tournament loss to Kentucky, which got blacktop-type physical. But it was a game. They made the big dogs sweat. Similarly, Seton Hall was a Josh Hart "S on my chest" putback away from advancing—and potentially winning the Big East tournament for the second straight year.
It's certainly expected to be close, per Jimmy Carter of Whole Hog Sports:
Seton Hall is a more well-rounded team, as noted by John Fanta of the Big East Digital Network:
But Josh Parcell, an associate producer at ESPNU, argued the Hall's struggles from the charity stripe will swing the game toward Arkansas:
Regardless of who wins, though, UNC is in for a battle.
For Seton Hall, a streaky scorer like Khadeen Carrington or Desi Rodriguez will have to have an explosive, efficient game. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award candidate Angel Delgado will have to dominate the glass. It's unlikely SHU could win, but Kevin Willard's squad has given Villanova, the No. 1 in the tournament, fits in recent years. It's not unthinkable.
For Arkansas, defense is key. The Razorbacks can score with the best of 'em, but they allow 74 points a night, 223rd in the nation. The team will also have to keep its composure. There's value in possessing the fire Moses Kingsley plays with, but it's a detriment if he gets tossed, as he did against Kentucky.
Whether it's SHU or Arkansas who wins in the first round, you'll want to keep an eye on UNC's second-round bout.
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