Big Ten Tournament 2017: Predicting Bracket Before Sunday's Regular-Season End

A men's basketball national champion has not come out of the Big Ten since 2000, and chances are that won't be the case this year as only two teams are in the top 25 of the Associated Press poll (and none in the top 15).

That being said, the Big Ten is a deep conference with numerous teams who can make long runs in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi recently predicted that seven teams will make March Madness from the Big Ten, which is tied for the second-most among all Division I conferences.

That should make for an interesting conference tournament, which starts on Wednesday.

Here's a look at the Big Ten tournament schedule as it currently stands, as well as predictions for the final seedings and the eventual outcome.

The regular season does not conclude until Sunday, but four teams, including regular-season champion Purdue, already know their places in the bracket at this time.

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Date	Game	Round	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV
Wednesday, March 8	1	First	No. 13 seed vs. No. 12 seed	4:30 p.m.	ESPN2
Wednesday, March 8	2	First	Rutgers vs. No. 11 seed	7 p.m.	BTN
Thursday, March 9	3	Second	Illinois vs. No. 8 seed	Noon	BTN
Thursday, March 9	4	Second	No. 5 seed vs. Game 1 winner	25 minutes after Game 3	BTN
Thursday, March 9	5	Second	No. 10 seed vs. No. 7 seed	6:30 p.m.	ESPN2
Thursday, March 9	6	Second	No. 6 seed vs. Game 2 winner	25 minutes after Game 5	ESPN2
Friday, March 10	7	Quarterfinals	Purdue vs. Game 3 winner	Noon	ESPN
Friday, March 10	8	Quarterfinals	No. 4 seed vs. Game 4 winner	25 minutes after Game 7	ESPN
Friday, March 10	9	Quarterfinals	No. 2 seed vs. Game 5 winner	6:30 p.m.	BTN
Friday, March 10	10	Quarterfinals	Maryland vs. Game 6 winner	25 minutes after Game 9	BTN
Saturday, March 11	11	Semifinals	Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner	1 p.m.	CBS Sports
Saturday, March 11	12	Semifinals	Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner	3:30 p.m.	CBS Sports
Sunday, March 12	13	Finals	Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner	3 p.m.	CBS Sports

Information via grfx.cstv.com. All games will take place at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

Bracket Predictions

Seed	Team	Projected Big Ten W-L
1	Purdue	14-4
2	Wisconsin	12-6
3	Maryland	12-6 *
4	Minnesota	11-7
5	Michigan State	10-8 *
6	Northwestern	10-8
7	Iowa	10-8
8	Michigan	10-8
9	Illinois	8-10 *
10	Indiana	7-11 *
11	Ohio State	7-11 *
12	Nebraska	6-12
13	Penn State	6-12
14	Rutgers	3-15 *

* Final Big Ten record has already been confirmed.

 

Tournament Predictions

1. Indiana Pulls Off Only Upset of Second Round

It might look odd to predict a team that has lost eight of its 11 games to end the regular season as a team that will pull off an upset.

The Hoosiers have disappointed fans this season. They started 11th in the Associated Press preseason poll and now barely rank in the top 11 of the Big Ten, let alone the nation.

Indiana's defense has been porous at times, placing 110th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per the Ken Pomeroy College Basketball rankings, but they are also 337th out of 351 teams in Luck factor.

They've lost a ton of close games down the stretch this Big Ten season. In fact, they lost four games by four points or less and a fifth in overtime. If three of those matchups go their way, IU is firmly in the NCAA tournament discussion and fighting a group of teams for a top-five finish in the conference.

If the above projections hold true, then Indiana would play Iowa in the second round. The Hoosiers lost to Iowa in overtime in Iowa City in February, but on a neutral court, IU could pull out a close win. In fact, Indiana ranks 30 spots higher than Iowa in the Sagarin ratings.

IU could also give Wisconsin, the team it would face in the quarterfinals, a run for its money as well. Indiana only lost by five to the Badgers in Madison when these two teams played.

However, Wisconsin, led by senior forward Nigel Hayes, is the better team and arguably the second-best team in the conference, so picking IU to beat the Badgers is too tough a call to make.

 

2. Northwestern Makes a Run to the Semifinals

The Wildcats are finally going to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history. They sealed a place at the March Madness table with a perfectly executed Hail Mary pass against Michigan, giving the Wildcats a 67-65 win:

 

They are guaranteed to finish with an above .500 win-loss record in the Big Ten and have already won 21 regular-season games with the regular-season finale and the Big Ten tournament still remaining.

If the bracket above comes to fruition, then the Wildcats will draw Ohio State, a team they beat in Columbus, 74-72. Northwestern should beat the Buckeyes in the second round and draw No. 3 seed Maryland, who it lost to 74-64 behind 32 points from junior guard Melo Trimble earlier in the regular season.

Trimble is an incredible player, don't get me wrong. But the problem with Maryland's offense is similar to the issue another basketball team with a player named Melo has (Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks). Too often, Trimble is called upon to try to bail out his team and make plays on his own.

Trimble has a good team around him, but the Terrapins don't have a clear-cut second scoring option that can take the load off his shoulders consistently.

That's going to burn them sometime in March, and the guess is that it happens in the Big Ten quarterfinals against Northwestern.

 

3. The Winner of the Purdue-Minnesota Semifinal Game Will Win the Championship

Purdue and Minnesota are rolling right now, with the Boilermakers winning 10 of their last 12 games and the Golden Gophers taking seven straight after an ugly five-game losing streak.

The Boilermakers have the best player in the conference in 6'9" sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan, who averages 18.6 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. In fact, he's posted four "20-20" games this season, scoring at least 20 points and grabbing at least 20 boards. He did so against Minnesota in a 91-82 overtime loss, with 28 points and 22 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Minnesota is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy rankings. Five players average at least 9.9 points per game, and they also have a big who can rebound well in 6'6" sophomore forward Jordan Murphy, who pulls down 8.8 per game.

With all due respect to Wisconsin, Minnesota might be the second-best team in the conference right now, as the Badgers are going cold at the wrong time, losing five of their last six games leading into their regular-season finale, coincidentally enough against the Golden Gophers.

Ultimately, Purdue and Minnesota are riding hot hands at the right time, and they should play a great game if they meet in the Big Ten tournament. The prediction here is that Purdue beats Minnesota and then Wisconsin for the Big Ten title.

 

Writer's note: A previous edition of this article indicated that Iowa plays in Ames, the home of Iowa State University. The writer regrets this oversight and has since fixed the line.