Houston-Mississippi State: The Prediction

Vegas says Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in Starkville this weekend, and the over/under is 65. That means Vegas thinks Mississippi State will hold the Cougars to less than 40 points.

Hey, if the Bulldogs can do that, they can win. Houston (3-1) comes in averaging 42.5 points per game, third in the country. Texas Tech held the Cougars to 29 in a loss two weeks ago.

MSU, meanwhile, is averaging 28.2 ppg (58th in the country) while giving up 26.2 (76th). And two teams, Auburn and Georgia Tech, have gotten into the 40s on State.

RB Arnil Stallworth told me Monday he thinks the Bulldogs can win a shootout against Houston. I’m not so sure. I’m also not sure that MSU’s secondary can do anything with Case Keenum, the Cougars’ junior QB. He passed for 536 yards against UTEP last week, but his team lost because UTEP’s offense was even more prolific than Houston’s.

I told someone the other day that I can’t imagine a scenario where Keenum does not have a huge day against MSU’s beleaguered secondary. The Bulldogs have yielded 499 yards passing over the past two weeks, and they’ve sacked the QB only three times. Keenum’s been sacked just four times all season.

Going back to that UTEP loss, a lot of folks have written off the Cougars because of it. They’ve dropped out of the national rankings—they were 12th last week—and they’ve been dismissed by many as just another mid-major pretender.

Yeah, tell that to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I agree with MSU coach Dan Mullen's perspective on Houston: “I know everybody the week before that was talking about how they should be a top 10 team. I imagine, in their minds, they still are. You watch them on film, and they still have all of that same potential they had a week prior when everybody thought that they were a top 10 team, so I still consider them that way.”

Maybe not top 10-worthy, but Houston’s plenty good. I’m thinking that UTEP loss was due largely to a lack of focus, not because the Cougs were less talented. I’m afraid I see them bouncing back this week, and I’ll have to respectfully disagree with Mr. Stallworth.

My prediction: Houston 45, MSU 38.