Super Bowl 51: Prop Bets, Predictions for Patriots vs. Falcons

Super Bowl Weekend has arrived! On Sunday night, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will face off in Super Bowl LI, the final game of the 2016 NFL season.

The contest is going to feature two of the best quarterbacks we have seen this season, along with the league's top scoring offense (Falcons) and top scoring defense (Patriots). For one team, a win would continue an epic dynasty. For the other, victory would represent its first title in franchise history.

There are plenty of other storylines to follow heading into Sunday's game, and there are plenty of betting opportunities to go along with them. We're here today to examine some of those opportunities, along with the latest odds from OddsShark.

Super Bowl LI

What: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

When: Sunday

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: Fox

Live Stream: Fox Sports Go

Line: New England (-3)

Over/Under: 58

Prediction: New England, 30-27, over Atlanta

Props and Picks

Patriots and Falcons Under 58

There are a couple of good reasons why the over/under in Super Bowl LI is set so high. Those reasons are the offenses of the Patriots and the Falcons.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has played at an MVP level this season, and he leads an offense that is one of the great units of all time. The Falcons averaged an NFL-best 33.8 points per game during the regular season. That's nearly one point per game more than the 1999 St. Louis Rams scored.

The Patriots offense is darn good in its own right. New England averaged 27.6 points per game in 2016 and did it while facing a tougher schedule and playing without quarterback Tom Brady for the first month of the season.

However, we're going to take the under here. Why? The defenses of the Patriots and the Falcons.

New England allowed an average of just 15.6 points per game during the regular season and is rated first in overall defense by Pro Football Focus.

The Falcons defense, while coming in 14th at Pro Football Focus, is an underrated unit. Atlanta allowed just 20.5 points per game through two rounds of the postseason.

The ground game of these two teams could also keep the score relatively low. The Falcons can lean on Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, while the Patriots can rely on LeGarrette Blount to keep the opposing offense off the field.

This tactic could be especially beneficial to the Patriots because stopping Atlanta's quick-strike offense won't be easy. According to former head coach and current Fox Sports analyst Dave Wannstedt, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will try to grind out the game.

"In football terms, he's going to take the air out of the football, and by that I mean he's going to try to shorten the game and keep Atlanta off the field as much as possible," Wannstedt said, per Bob Glauber of Newsday.

By shortening the game, the Patriots can help keep the score south of the over/under line.

Falcons to Score Field Goal to Open Game

Rob Carr/Getty Images

You can place a wager on which team will score first (roughly 50-50 odds, obviously) and on what the opening score will be.

Naturally, a lot is going to depend on which team gets the first possession of the game. We're going to go with the Falcons because of the Patriots' tendency to defer even when they win the toss.

In fact, New England has elected to receive the kickoff just four times since the start of the 2008 season. The tendency has been so strong that Brady was surprised when the Patriots took the ball in the AFC title game, according to Zack Cox of NESN:

If the Falcons get the ball first, recent trends suggest they will score. In fact, they have scored a touchdown on the opening drive in each of the past eight games.

However, we're going to go with New England's bend-but-don't-break defense once the Falcons get into scoring range. The Patriots were tied for sixth in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage at 50 percent, per TeamRankings.com. Only five teams allowed a red-zone touchdown less often.

Therefore, while the Falcons can move the ball on the opening drive, they'll likely stall and settle for three points.

LeGarrette Blount Over 57.5 Yards Rushing

There are also plenty of player-specific props over at OddsShark, but one we really like involves Blount and the over/under of 57.5 rushing yards.

Blount, who averaged 72.6 yards rushing per game during the regular season, will hit the over.

Why? The first reason is because of the run-oriented game plan we mentioned earlier. If the Patriots choose to grind out the game on the ground, they're likely to do it primarily with the bruising Oregon product.

The other reason is that Atlanta's run defense isn't quite on par with New England's. While the Patriots are rated second in run defense by Pro Football Focus, the Falcons are rated just 26th. On average, the Falcons surrendered 104.5 yards rushing per game during the regular season.

While Blount didn't rush for more than 50 yards in either of New England's two earlier postseason games, he can crush the 60-yard mark in the Super Bowl.